johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 9, 2023 20:43:09 GMT
Someone on Twitter has reported the death yesterday of Councillor Matty Lock (Labour) (Maghull Town Council, East ward).
Google tells me that he was only 19.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2023 20:49:07 GMT
Evidently he was a vacuum cleaner geek which is not something I've encountered before
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 10, 2023 7:49:41 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 10, 2023 8:59:14 GMT
Mike Smithson on Political Betting keeps pointing out that the polling evidence suggests that a relatively small proportion of 2019 Conservative voters have switched to opposition parties. A much bigger proportion who are not declaring themselves as current Conservative supporters are uncertain as to how they will vote next time. Surveys differ on the number of Tory to Labour switchers, but even the most pessimistic ones (from a Labour pov) have it well above where it was in any previous parliaments since 2010. And given the general tenor of the polls (not just VI figures) the Tories would be unwise in banking on a late mass conversion of "don't knows" to save them. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 10, 2023 10:56:25 GMT
”Confirmed by”? It’s not confirmed by the Liverpool Echo. It’s reported by the Liverpool Echo. It was reported (and thus confirmed) by the original (same) source on Twitter. |
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Post by phil156 on Sept 12, 2023 9:12:14 GMT
There is a by-election for Welshpool Town Council - Castle Ward on the 21st September
2 - Ind & 1 No-description
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 12, 2023 10:31:25 GMT
Despite my best efforts, the vacancy on Haminog ward on Llanrhystud in Ceredigion is to be filled by co-option.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 12, 2023 13:28:43 GMT
See the other byelections thread for a possible explanation. People generally don't like councillors resigning soon after being elected without a fairly good reason. And most Tory local byelection results - going back for some time - are pretty terrible and suggest the polls are correct. Straw clutching over outliers was done a fair bit by your lot in the run up to 1997 IIRC. The original Labour gain in the district ward happened at the nadir of Tory polling in 2022 and it was close in the 2023 locals. A narrow Tory win in this ward would imply that they are still well behind nationally and on course to lose the Norwich North constituency by something in the higher side of four figures. |
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 17, 2023 15:15:36 GMT
Bridgend, Porthcawl, East Central. Ind 396, Lab 356. Turnout 16.7%.
Denbighshire, Rhyl, Cefndy. Lab 244, Con 102. Lab hold. Turnout 14%. Poor turnouts, even for stand-alone Town Council by-elections in August. Set me thinking about turnouts even lower than this - I’m sure I saw one last year under 10%? Just how low can the turnout go in these stand-alone Town or Parish by-elections? |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 17, 2023 16:02:46 GMT
Bridgend, Porthcawl, East Central. Ind 396, Lab 356. Turnout 16.7%.
Denbighshire, Rhyl, Cefndy. Lab 244, Con 102. Lab hold. Turnout 14%. Poor turnouts, even for stand-alone Town Council by-elections in August. Set me thinking about turnouts even lower than this - I’m sure I saw one last year under 10%? Just how low can the turnout go in these stand-alone Town or Parish by-elections? We had one in the second week of August this year that hat 6.5% turnout (Carmarthenshire, Cwmamman, Pistllwyd). |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 19, 2023 15:27:59 GMT
21 September:North East Derbyshire, Clay Cross, North. Con, Lab, LD Torfaen, Cwmbran, Two Locks. Con, Lab, LD, Ind North Yorkshire, Thornton Dale (5). 5x A Better Thornton Le Dale, [] Powys, Welshpool, Castle. 2x Ind, []
Shropshire, Bridgnorth, Morfe. Ind, [] South Holland, Long Sutton. 2x [] East Staffordshire, Mayfield (2). 2x []* Winchester, Olivers Battery. []*
28 September:Carmarthenshire, Llanedi, Hendy. Gwlad, PC South Norfolk, Wymondham, South. Lab, LD Monmouthshire, Monmouth, Drybridge. Con* Folkestone & Hythe, Dymchurch. Ind, A Non-aligned Candidate, Friends of Dymchurch
Folkestone & Hythe, New Romney, Coast. []* Gwynedd, Llanwnda, Rhostryfan. []* Wealden, Alfriston. []*
5 October:Cornwall, Camborne, Treswithian. Con, Mebyon Kernow Wiltshire, Melksham, East. Con, LD, 2x Ind
Denbighshire, Corwen, Lower. Ind, []
Wychavon, Dodderhill. 2x [] Cornwall, St Agnes, Porthtowan. []*
12 October: Durham, Great Aycliffe, Shafto St Marys. LD, Ind Hinckley & Bosworth, Earl Shilton, Westfield. LD, Ind Huntingdonshire, St Neots, Eatons Ford. Green, Lab, Ind, "Independent, Putting People Before Politics" Northumberland, Ashington, Haydon. Lab, LD, Ind Torfaen, Pontypool, Cwmynyscoy. Con, Lab
Hinckley & Bosworth, Groby, Field Head. []* Hinckley & Bosworth, Witherley, Fenny Drayton (4). 3x Ind*, []*
Swansea, Grovesend & Waungron. ? Probably no candidates
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 21, 2023 15:36:16 GMT
North East Derbyshire, Clay Cross, North. Current council: 10 Lab, 1 Vacancy. 2023 result: Lab 810*/772*/742*/731*/731*/715*/667*, Con 572/561/521/517/501/456/428, LD 177/169. Vacancy is the fourth Lab seat.
Torfaen, Cwmbran, Two Locks. Current council: 18 Lab, 1 Vacancy. 2022 result: 2x Lab* Uncontested. 2022 Sep byelection: Lab 241*, Ind 172.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 21, 2023 22:22:38 GMT
Ely CC, North:
Ross David TRENT (Liberal Democrats) 494
Adam Joshua WILSON (Labour Party) 196
Turnout 17.98%
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 21, 2023 22:57:52 GMT
Ely CC, North: Ross David TRENT (Liberal Democrats) 494 Adam Joshua WILSON (Labour Party) 196 Turnout 17.98% Thanks - not sure how I missed that one! I believe that's an LD gain from a co-opted non-party councillor. North ward is now 2 LD, 1 Lab, 2 [] (1 [] and 1 Lab coopted), and the council as a whole is now 8 Non-party, 4 LD, 2 Lab, 1 Green. |
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Post by phil156 on Sept 22, 2023 0:01:12 GMT
North East Derbyshire - Clay Cross
Con gain from Lab
Con 406 up 16%
Lab 310 down 13%
LD 73 down 3%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 6:27:19 GMT
Solid Tory victory in Clay Cross(!). It's one result, but it's a good showing for the Conservatives in a historically Labour area. Dennis Skinner will be foaming! x.com/Lee4NED/status/1704991018511122782?s=20This is one of those 'red wall' (  ) seats that's been good for the Tories for yonks: in 2010, the UKIP vote surpassed the size of the Labour majority in the seat. In 2015,, Labour's lead was around 1800 compared to 2000 votes in 1983, so the writing was on the wall (although we saw many 'sub-Foot' results in that GE. I dare say this will be safe for the Conservatives in my lifetime. I'm less sure about Bolsover. I won't regurgitate this point forever and ever, but North East Derbyshire is one a clutch of constituencies that swung Tory in every GE since 1997. It probably swings back next time, but with a below average shift that sees the Tories hold on, IMHO. What stands out to me is that Clay Cross is probably a better bet for the Tories long-term than Barlborough ward in Bolsover since the latter is more educated. The Conservatives won Barlborough in the 2015 Bolsover election, but lost it in 2023, despite it being their only Bolsover ward at one time. Realignment I guess. |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 22, 2023 8:19:13 GMT
Torfaen, Cwmbran, Two Locks. Ind 217, Lab 190, Con 52, LD 23. Ind gain from Lab.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 22, 2023 8:25:00 GMT
Yes, the realignment hasn't yet completely unwound. Barlborough's recent population growth added the equivalent of Surrey for Sheffield, and this type of voter was Conservative inclined but is no longer.
Fifty years ago Clay Cross was iconic in Labour local government circles although the local Residents' Association had already beaten the Labour rent rebels in May 1976.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 22, 2023 9:06:22 GMT
Solid Tory victory in Clay Cross(!). It's one result, but it's a good showing for the Conservatives in a historically Labour area. Dennis Skinner will be foaming! x.com/Lee4NED/status/1704991018511122782?s=20This is one of those 'red wall' ( ) seats that's been good for the Tories for yonks: in 2010, the UKIP vote surpassed the size of the Labour majority in the seat. In 2015,, Labour's lead was around 1800 compared to 2000 votes in 1983, so the writing was on the wall (although we saw many 'sub-Foot' results in that GE. I dare say this will be safe for the Conservatives in my lifetime. I'm less sure about Bolsover. I won't regurgitate this point forever and ever, but North East Derbyshire is one a clutch of constituencies that swung Tory in every GE since 1997. It probably swings back next time, but with a below average shift that sees the Tories hold on, IMHO. What stands out to me is that Clay Cross is probably a better bet for the Tories long-term than Barlborough ward in Bolsover since the latter is more educated. The Conservatives won Barlborough in the 2015 Bolsover election, but lost it in 2023, despite it being their only Bolsover ward at one time. Realignment I guess. You don't know that area at all do you? You have not been to either of those places have you? And you use the word 'yonks'! Oh dear. These changes ar quite recent and quite complex. Best not to comment based on such ignorance. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 9:26:17 GMT
Solid Tory victory in Clay Cross(!). It's one result, but it's a good showing for the Conservatives in a historically Labour area. Dennis Skinner will be foaming! x.com/Lee4NED/status/1704991018511122782?s=20This is one of those 'red wall' ( ) seats that's been good for the Tories for yonks: in 2010, the UKIP vote surpassed the size of the Labour majority in the seat. In 2015,, Labour's lead was around 1800 compared to 2000 votes in 1983, so the writing was on the wall (although we saw many 'sub-Foot' results in that GE. I dare say this will be safe for the Conservatives in my lifetime. I'm less sure about Bolsover. I won't regurgitate this point forever and ever, but North East Derbyshire is one a clutch of constituencies that swung Tory in every GE since 1997. It probably swings back next time, but with a below average shift that sees the Tories hold on, IMHO. What stands out to me is that Clay Cross is probably a better bet for the Tories long-term than Barlborough ward in Bolsover since the latter is more educated. The Conservatives won Barlborough in the 2015 Bolsover election, but lost it in 2023, despite it being their only Bolsover ward at one time. Realignment I guess. You don't know that area at all do you? You have not been to either of those places have you? And you use the word 'yonks'! Oh dear. These changes ar quite recent and quite complex. Best not to comment based on such ignorance. You don't know which areas I know and don't know. As it is, my uncle lived near Penistone so I've been around Bolsover constituency, Hardwick Hall and these parts. Have you? You're just looking to get a rise out of people on here. Don't you have anything better to do? I think I know the answer to that actually. |
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) seats that's been good for the Tories for yonks: in 2010, the UKIP vote surpassed the size of the Labour majority in the seat. In 2015,, Labour's lead was around 1800 compared to 2000 votes in 1983, so the writing was on the wall (although we saw many 'sub-Foot' results in that GE. I dare say this will be safe for the Conservatives in my lifetime. I'm less sure about Bolsover. I won't regurgitate this point forever and ever, but North East Derbyshire is one a clutch of constituencies that swung Tory in every GE since 1997. It probably swings back next time, but with a below average shift that sees the Tories hold on, IMHO.