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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 18, 2016 0:28:34 GMT
Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn: SNP 41, Ind 32, Con 20, Green 7
Broxtowe, Greasley: Con 50, Lab 28, UKIP 10, LD 12
Broxtowe, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: Con 46, Lab 25, Green 4, LD 25
Cambridgeshire , Sutton: Con 36, LD 38, UKIP 8, Ind 18
Chiltern , Amersham Town: Con 44 , LD 42, Lab 7, UKIP 7
Flintshire, New Brighton: LD 45, Con 20, Lab 30, Ind 5
Lichfield, Chadsmead: Con 29, LD 29, Lab 29, UKIP 10, Green 3
Manchester, Higher Blackley: Lab 67, UKIP 15, Con 7, Green 4, LD 5, Pirate 2
Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Con 32, Lab 12, UKIP 22, LD 6, West Suffolk Ind 28
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 18, 2016 1:02:23 GMT
ARGYLL AND BUTE Oban North and Lorn: SNP 47, C 23, Ind 17, SGP 13
BROXTOWE Greasley: C 51, Lab 30, UKIP 14, L Dem 5
BROXTOWE Toton and Chilwell Meadows: C 55, Lab 25, L Dem 14, GP 6
CAMBRIDGESHIRE Sutton: C 38, L Dem 33, UKIP 19, Ind 10
CHILTERN Amersham Town: L Dem 40, C 37, UKIP 15, Lab 8
FLINTSHIRE New Brighton: Lab 35, L Dem 31, C 25, Ind 9
LICHFIELD Chadsmead: C 39, Lab 28, L Dem 16, UKIP 14, GP 3
MANCHESTER Higher Blackley: Lab 63, UKIP 16, C 11, PP 5, GP 3, L Dem 2
SUFFOLK Newmarket and Red Lodge: C 41, Ind 25, UKIP 18, Lab 10, L Dem 6
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Post by lennon on Feb 18, 2016 2:29:22 GMT
My roll of the dice for this week:
Argyll & Bute UA, Oban North & Lorn (1st preference votes): SNP 40, Independent 38, Conservative 15, Green 7. (Indie win on transfers)
Broxtowe BC, Greasley: Con 45, Lab 35, UKIP 15, Lib Dem 5.
Broxtowe BC, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: Con 50, Lab 30, Lib Dem 15, Green 5.
Cambridgeshire CC, Sutton: Lib Dem 38, Con 35, UKIP 15, Independent 12.
Chiltern DC, Amersham Town: Lib Dem 40, Con 35, Lab 15, UKIP 10.
Flintshire UA, New Brighton: Lib Dem 40, Lab 25, Con 25, Independent 10.
Lichfield DC, Chadsmead: Lib Dem 36, Con 35, Lab 24, UKIP 7, Green 3
Manchester MBC, Higher Blackley: Lab 60, UKIP 12, Con 11, Lib Dem 10, Green 6, Pirate 1.
Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Con 50, UKIP 21, Lab 19, Lib Dem 7 West Suffolk Independent 3.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Feb 18, 2016 8:30:41 GMT
Argyll & Bute UA, Oban North & Lorn : SNP 37, Ind 34, Con 24, Grn 5
Broxtowe BC, Greasley: Con 48, Lab 24.2, UKIP 17.7, LD 10.1
Broxtowe BC, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: Con 45, Lab 26, LD 23, Grn 6
Cambridgeshire CC, Sutton: Con 49, LD 37, UKIP 9, Ind 5
Chiltern DC, Amersham Town: Con 41.6, LD 35, Lab 14.1, UKIP 9.3
Flintshire UA, New Brighton: LD 44, Lab 33, Con 15, Ind 8
Lichfield DC, Chadsmead: Con 35, Lab 27, LD 24, UKIP 11, Grn 3
Manchester MBC, Higher Blackley: Lab 60.4, UKIP 21.4, Con 8.7, LD 4.6, Grn 4.2, Pirate 0.7
Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge: WSI 33, Con 33, UKIP 22, Lab 9, LD 3
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 18, 2016 9:10:26 GMT
Manchester MB - Higher Blackley Lab 62.9% UKIP 18.7% Con 9.1% LD 4.2% Grn 3.6% Pir 1.5% Cambridgeshire CC - Sutton Con 39.2% LD 29.8% Ind 18.2% UKIP 12.8% Suffolk CC - Newmarket & Red Lodge Con 37.6% Ind 25.9% UKIP 16.7% Lab 11.8% LD 8.0% Broxtowe BC - Greasley Con 51.0% Lab 28.0% UKIP 12.7% LD 8.3% Broxtowe BC - Toton & Chilwell Meadows Con 52.1% Lab 27.4% LD 14.4% Grn 6.1% Chiltern DC - Amersham Town Con 47.9% LD 28.9% UKIP 12.1% Lab 11.1% Lichfield DC- Chadsmead Con 35.7% Lab 27.1% LD 18.6% UKIP 14.3% Grn 4.3% Argyll & Bute - Oban North & Lorn SNP 42.1% Ind 34.9% Con 18.4% Grn 4.6% Flintshire CC - New Brighton LD 42.5% Lab 28.2% Con 24.9% Ind 4.4% |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 18, 2016 9:32:27 GMT
Argyll and Bute SNP 44 Ind 31 Con 20 Green 5
Broxtowe Greasley Con 48 Lab 31 UKIP 11 LD 10
Broxtowe Toton Con 48 Lab 29 LD 16 Green 7
Cambs Con 36 LD 33 Ind 16 UKIP 15
Chiltern Con 42 LD 37 UKIP 13 Lab 8
Flintshire LD 39 Lab 29 Con 26 Ind 6
Lichfield LD 34 Con 32 Lab 22 UKIP 8 Green 4
Manchester Lab 64 UKIP 11 Con 9 LD 8 Green 6 Pirate 2
Suffolk Con 44 Ind 21 UKIP 17 Lab 12 LD 6
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 18, 2016 12:18:52 GMT
Argyll & Bute: SNP 37.6 Ind 34.1 Con 22.5 Grn 5.8 Flintshire: LD 46.2 Lab 23.4 Con 22.4 Ind 8.0 Broxtowe - Greasley Con 53.4 Lab 22.1 UKIP 15.4 LD 9.1 Broxtowe - Toton and Chilwell Meadows Con 55.2 LD 19.2 Lab 18.9 Grn 6.7 Cambs Con 51.8 LD 27.2 UKIP 14.3 Ind 6.7 Chiltern: Con 51.4 LD 26.3 UKIP 12.1 Lab 10.2 Lichfield: Con 37.7 Lab 23.8 LD 22.6 UKIP 12.5 Grn 3.4 Manchester: Lab 59.3 UKIP 19.3 Con 11.2 Grn 5.5 Pir 2.5 LD 2.2 Suffolk: Con 42.3 UKIP 20.2 WSI 18.9 Lab 13.4 LD 5.2 |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 18, 2016 19:53:43 GMT
This is the fourth time I have tried to post this with the Vote-2012 system crashing. So here goes in stages.
9 entries this week with Lennon getting 5 additional faults for adding to 105% in Lichfield and Mark Senior 9 x 5 additional faults for being ½ hour late on parade.
Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences with lead ranging from 2% over Independent (Lennon) to 24% over Conservative (David Boothroyd)
Broxtowe, Greasley: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 10% (Lennon) to 23.8% (Maxque)
Broxtowe, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 19% (Mark Senior & Maxque) to 36% (Tony Otim)
Cambridgeshire: Sutton: 7 Conservative hold, Lennon & Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain
Chiltern, Amersham Town: 7 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, David Boothroyd & Lennon Liberal Democrat hold
Flintshire: New Brighton: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, David Boothroyd Labour gain
Lichfield, Chadsmead: 6 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, Lennon & Mark Senior Liberal Democrat hold with Robert Waller a three way tie including Labour
Manchester: Higher Blackley: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 39% (Maxque) to 53% (Mark Senior)
Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge: 8 Conservative hold with Maxque a Conservative / West Suffolk Independent tie
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 19, 2016 0:55:17 GMT
Much checking needed but looks like Robert Waller some 40+ faults ahead of Tony Otim for the week and 80 faults for the month to date with much bunching some 10 / 25 faults further behind.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 19, 2016 9:16:58 GMT
Congratulations to Robert for the week. Don't know how I can be second for the week - my Cambridgeshire and Lichfield predictions were appallingly out...
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 19, 2016 16:08:04 GMT
The Labour vote in Newmarket & Red Lodge was 284 not 234 as initially reported. Some corrections are required.
Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn
David Boothroyd 12.5 faults, Robert Waller 17.8, Tony Otim 22.0, Maxque 23.5, Pete Whitehead 23.6, Mark Senior 19.1+5, Lennon 29.8, hempie 33.1, Greenhert 35.1
Broxtowe, Greasley
Maxque 4.9 faults, Tony Otim 9.2, Robert Waller 14.2, Pete Whitehead 15.7, hempie 19.1, Greenhert 19.4, David Boothroyd 19.7, Mark Senior 17.4+5, Lennon 25.4
Broxtowe, Toton & Chilwell Meadows
Tony Otim 7.2 faults, Pete Whitehead 13.1, David Boothroyd 14.1, Maxque 14.6, Robert Waller 16.6, Lennon 18.0, Mark Senior 17.3+5, Greenhert 25.4, hempie 29.4
Cambridgeshire, Sutton
Lennon 29.0 faults, Robert Waller 33.6, Maxque 33.7+10, David Boothroyd & Greenhert 39.0+10, Mark Senior 39.0+5+10, Pete Whitehead 45.4+10, hempie 49.0+10, Tony Otim 50.6+10
Chiltern, Amersham Town
Robert Waller 12.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.5, Maxque 19.9, Tony Otim 20.1, Mark Senior 16.4+5, Greenhert 25.1, hempie 27.1, David Boothroyd 26.4+10, Lennon 30.4+10
Flintshire, New Brighton
Tony Otim 10.1 faults, Robert Waller 10.8, Maxque 11.6, Pete Whitehead 17.0, Lennon 19.3, Greenhert 22.8, Mark Senior 20.8+5, hempie 29.2, David Boothroyd 32.8+10
Lichfield, Chadsmead
Lennon 22.6+5 faults, Mark Senior 23.5+5, Robert Waller 22.1+6.7 faults, hempie 26.1+10, Maxque 32.1+10, Greenhert 34.0+10, Tony Otim 39.2+10, Pete Whitehead 42.8+10, David Boothroyd 48.1+10
Manchester, Higher Blackley
Pete Whitehead 6.4 faults, Robert Waller 9.8, Maxque 10.1, hempie 14.0, David Boothroyd 16.0, Greenhert 16.4, Tony Otim 17.1, Mark Senior 18.4+5, Lennon 24.4
Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge
Greenhert 22.9 faults, hempie 24.5, Tony Otim 25.5, Lennon 30.5, David Boothroyd 36,7, Mark Senior 34.7+5, Pete Whitehead 42.5, Robert Waller 42.7, Maxque 50.3+5
Greenhert 21.0 faults, hempie 22.1, Lennon 28.1, Tony Otim 28.8, David Boothroyd 40.0, Mark Senior 38.0+5, Pete Whitehead 43.2, Robert Waller 43.4, Maxque 50.8+5
and for the week:
Robert Waller 186.7, Tony Otim 221.0, Maxque 225.7, Lennon 244.4, Pete Whitehead 246.1, Greenhert 260.2, Mark Senior 261.6, hempie 271.8, David Boothroyd 285.5
Robert Waller 187.5 faults, Tony Otim 224.3, Maxque 226.2, Lennon 242.0, Pete Whitehead 246.8, Greenhert 258.3, Mark Senior 265.0, hempie 269.4, David Bothroyd 288.8
- Maxque predicted a tie between Conservative and West Suffolk Independent in Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge; 1 winner right and 1 wrong so 5 additional points
- Robert Waller predicted a 3 way tie in Lichfield, Chadsmead between Conservative, Labour Liberal Democrat; 1 winner right and 2 wrong so 6.666666 additional points
and for the month to date:
336.2 335.4 Robert Waller
409.4 406.1 Tony Otim
423.0 425.0 Greenhert
427.7 426.9 Pete Whitehead
439.1 438.6 Maxque
442.6 439.3 Mark Senior
444.7 447.2 Lennon
466.1 468.5 hempie
479.2 475.9 David Boothroyd
Objections please by noon Sunday Monday.
4 contests in the last week of February. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Feb 24, 2016 21:48:41 GMT
Kingswinford North and Wall Heath, Dudley: Con 48.9, Lab 31.4, UKIP 17, Grn 2,7
St. James's, Dudley: Lab 44, UKIP 30, Con 26
Catterick, Richmondshire: Ind 51, Con 49
Studley with Sambourne, Stratford-on-Avon: LD 33.3, Con 32, Lab 17.1, Ind 12.3, UKIP 5.3
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Post by marksenior on Feb 24, 2016 22:28:08 GMT
Dudley Kingswinford Con 50 Lab 33 UKIP 12 Green 2
Dudley St James Lab 48 Con 28 UKIP 24
Richmondhire Ind 56 Con 44
Stratford On Avon LD 43 Con 32 Lab 13 UKIP 6 Ind 6
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2016 22:29:10 GMT
My local by-election predictions for this week:
Dudley MBC, Kingswinford North & Wall Heath: Conservative 50, Labour 30, UKIP 17, Green 3.
Dudley MBC, St. James's: Lab 49, Con 27, UKIP 24.
Richmondshire DC, Catterick: Independent (Jill McMullon) 52, Con 48.
Stratford-on-Avon DC, Studleywith Sambourne: Liberal Democrats 35, Conservative 30, Labour 15, Independent (Nick Moon) 14, UKIP 6.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 24, 2016 23:31:54 GMT
Dudley MBC, Kingswinford North & Wall Heath: Conservative 47, Labour 25, UKIP 25, Green 3.
Dudley MBC, St. James's: Lab 50, Con 20, UKIP 30.
Richmondshire DC, Catterick: Independent (Jill McMullon) 40, Con 60.
Stratford-on-Avon DC, Studley with Sambourne: Liberal Democrats 32, Conservative 32, Labour 12, Independent (Nick Moon) 16, UKIP 8.
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Post by lennon on Feb 25, 2016 0:44:46 GMT
Dudley Kingswinford Con 45 Lab 30 UKIP 20 Green 5
Dudley St James Lab 34 Con 30 UKIP 36
Richmondshire Ind 55 Con 45
Stratford On Avon LD 36 Con 34 Lab 10 UKIP 10 Ind 10
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 25, 2016 1:40:21 GMT
DUDLEY Kingswinford North and Wall Heath: C 51, Lab 28, UKIP 18, GP 3
DUDLEY St James’s: Lab 49, C 28, UKIP 23
RICHMONDSHIRE Catterick: C 61, Ind 39
STRATFORD-ON-AVON Studley with Sambourne: L Dem 36, C 33, Ind 15, Lab 11, UKIP 5
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Post by hempie on Feb 25, 2016 8:20:15 GMT
Dudley, Kingswinford North & Wall Heath: Conservative 44, UKIP 28, Labour 24, Green 4
Dudley, St. James's: Lab 48, UKIP 33, Con 19
Richmondshire, Catterick: Con 62, Independent 38
Stratford-on-Avon, Studley with Sambourne: Lib Dem 34, Conservative 31, Independent 18, Labour 9, UKIP 8
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 25, 2016 12:10:37 GMT
Dudley MB - Kingswinford North Con 48.8% Lab 30.7% UKIP 17.1% Grn 3.4% Dudley MB - St James Lab 40.5% UKIP 34.5% Con 25.0% Richmond DC - Catterick Con 57.6% Ind 42.4% Stratford on Avon DC - Studley with Sambourne LD 40.4% Con 30.9% Lab 14.7% Ind 8.2% UKIP 5.8% |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 25, 2016 13:54:32 GMT
Kingswinford North and Wall Heath Con 45.5 Lab 26.7 UKIP 24.6 Grn 3.2 St James Lab 42.8 UKIP 30.2 Con 27 Catterick: Ind 52.1 Con 47.9 Studley and Sambourne: LD 36.3 Con 34.2 Lab 13.2 Ind 8.7 UKIP 7.6 |
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