Prediction Competition February 2016

[Robert Waller]

I think the top three from last month may well be occupy the bottom there positions for the week.
I would expect this to change in subsequent weeks, of course ...

[middleenglander]

East Cambridgeshire, Bottisham
Pete Whitehead 9.8 faults, Greenhert 10.6, David Boothroyd 17.9, Tony Otim 18.5, Robert Waller 11.1+10, Maxque 14.6+10, hempie 17.1+10, Lennon 21.1+10, Mark Senior 22.6+10

North West Leicestershire, Measham South
hempie 10.3 faults, Mark Senior 13.0, Robert Waller 15.0, Pete Whitehead 15.2, Lennon & Maxque 17.0, David Boothroyd 21.0, Tony Otim 22.4, Greenhert 23.0

Northumberland, Hexham West
Maxque 11.3 faults, Mark Senior 13.5, Robert Waller 13.7, Lennon 15.5, David Boothroyd 18.2, hempie 18.5+10, Greenhert 24.7+10, Pete Whitehead 26.5+10, Tony Otim 41.4+10

Shropshire, Oswestry South
Tony Otim 16.4 faults, Greenhert 19.6, Robert Waller 33.6+10, Lennon 35.6+10, hempie & Mark Senior 37.6+10, David Boothroyd 41.6+10, Pete Whitehead 51.0+10, Maxque 55.6+10

and for the week:

87.9 Greenhert
93.5 Robert Waller

106.7 Mark Senior
108.7 Tony Otim
108.8 David Boothroyd
109.1 Lennon

113.5 hempie
118.5 Maxque
122.5 Pete Whitehead

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Greenhert for the week!

[Tony Otim]

Echoed!

[Pete Whitehead]

Its nice when voting with your heart pays off (hasn't happened to me for a while)

[Tony Otim]

Feb 5, 2016 22:44:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Its nice when voting with your heart pays off (hasn't happened to me for a while)

First time I've ever correctly predicted a Green gain in this competition. Two reasons to be happy

[marksenior]

Bolton Lab 56 Con 18 UKIP 14 LD 8 Green 4
Coventry Lab 49 Con 22 UKIP 15 Green 10 LD 4
Eastleigh LD 48 Con 35 UKIP 9 Lab 5 Green 3
Hounslow Lab 53 Con 28 LD 12 UKIP 7

[Robert Waller]

Bolton Lab 63 Con 16 UKIP 9 LD 8 Green 4
Coventry Lab 57 Con 18 UKIP 13 Green 6 LD 6
Eastleigh LD 50 Con 31 UKIP 9 Lab 7 Green 3
Hounslow Lab 65 Con 24 LD 5 UKIP 4 Green 2

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BOLTON Crompton: Lab 57, C 20, UKIP 11, L Dem 8, GP 4
COVENTRY Lower Stoke: Lab 58, C 24, UKIP 12, GP 4, L Dem 2
EASTLEIGH West End North: L Dem 43, C 36, UKIP 13, Lab 5, GP 3
HOUNSLOW Cranford: Lab 54, C 30, UKIP 9, L Dem 5, GP 2

[lennon]

Bolton Lab 60 LD 15 Con 12 UKIP 10 Green 3
Coventry Lab 60 UKIP 15 Con 12 Green 7 LD 6
Eastleigh LD 50 UKIP 20 Con 15 Lab 10 Green 5
Hounslow Lab 65 Con 20 LD 6 UKIP 5 Green 4

[greenhert]

My by-election predictions for this week:

Bolton MBC, Crompton: Labour 57, Conservative 18, UKIP 14, Liberal Democrats 7, Green 4.
Coventry MBC, Lower Stoke: Lab 55, Con 21, UKIP 11, Green 9, Lib Dem 4.
Eastleigh BC, West End North: Lib Dem 45, Con 30, UKIP 13, Lab 9, Green 3.
Hounslow LBC, Cranford: Lab 56, Con 24, UKIP 8, Green 7, Lib Dem 5.

[maxque]

Bolton MBC, Crompton: Lab 61, Con 18, UKIP 8, LD 8, Grn 5
Coventry MBC, Lower Stoke: Lab 52, Con 23, UKIP 18, Grn 5, LD 2
Eastleigh BC, West End North: LD 44, Con 35, UKIP 11, Lab 7, Grn 3
Hounslow LBC, Cranford: Lab 59, Con 24, UKIP 9, Grn 6, LD 2

[hempie]

Bolton, Crompton: Lab 60, Con 19, UKIP 9, LD 7, Green 5
Coventry, Lower Stoke: Lab 54, Con 17, UKIP 17, Green 8, LD 4
Eastleigh, West End North: LD 44, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lab 8, Green 3
Hounslow, Cranford: Lab 60, Con 22, UKIP 8, Green 7, LD 3

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 10, 2016 22:50:17 GMT petewhitehead said:

Hounslow LB - Cranford

Lab   55.6%
Con  25.9%
LD      8.1%
UKIP  7.7%
Grn    2.7%


Bolton MB - Crompton

Lab    62.6%
Con   16.4%
UKIP 11.7%
LD       6.2%
Grn     3.1%


Coventry MB - Lower Stoke

Lab    55.3%
Con   22.8%
UKIP  13.1%
LD        5.1%
Grn      3.7%


Eastleigh BC - West End North

LD     44.1%
Con   31.4%
UKIP 13.3%
Lab     7.7%
Grn     3.5%

[Tony Otim]

Feb 10, 2016 17:09:47 GMT tonyotim said:

Bolton:
Lab 61.1
Con 16.6
UKIP 12.6
LD 5.6
Grn 4.1


Coventry:
Lab 50.2
Con 19.3
UKIP 18.1
LD 6.3
Grn 6.1



Eastleigh:
LD 44.3
Con 30.7
UKIP 16.2
Lab 5.6
Grn 3.2


Hounslow:
Lab 49.8
Con 27.5
UKIP 12.9
LD 5.4
Grn 4.4

[middleenglander]

9 entries again with no additional faults.

Bolton, Compton: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 37% (David Boothroyd) to 47% (Robert Waller)
Coventry, Lower Stoke: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 27% (Mark Senior) to 45% (Lennon)
Eastleigh, West End North: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority ranging from 7% (David Boothroyd) to 30% (Lennon)
Hounslow, Cranford: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 22.3% (Tony Otim) to 45% (Lennon)

[middleenglander]

Bolton, Crompton
Pete Whitehead 16.6 faults, Tony Otim 19.6, Robert Waller 21.0, Lennon 25.0, Hempie & Maxque 27.0, Greenhert 27.8, David Boothroyd 29.0, Mark Senior 29.8

Coventry, Lower Stoke - amended
Robert Waller 4.7 faults, Lennon 9.1, hempie 10.0, Greenhert 12.9, Pete Whitehead 13.7, Tony Otim 17.2, David Boothroyd 17.6, Mark Senior 20.0, Maxque 23.3

Eastleigh, West End North
Robert Waller 9.0 faults, Mark Senior 13.5, Greenhert 16.0, Tony Otim 17.4, Pete Whitehead 17.8, Hempie & Maxque 18.0, David Boothroyd 20.6, Lennon 33.4

Hounslow, Cranford- amended
Mark Senior 7.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 10.1, David Boothroyd 14.5, Greenhert 20.1, Robert Waller 20.6, Tony Otim 22.1, Lennon & Maxque 26.1, hempie 28.1

and for the week:
Robert Waller 55.2 faults, Pete Whitehead 58.4, Mark Senior 70.9, Tony Otim 76.4,Greenhert 76.9, David Boothroyd 81.7, hempie 83.2, Lennon 93.7, Maxque 94.4,

and the month to date:

148.7 Robert Waller
164.8 Greenhert

177.7 Mark Senior
180.9 Pete Whitehead

185.1 Tony Otim
190.5 David Boothroyd
196.7 hempie

202.8 Lennon
213.0 Maxque

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 9 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert for the week.

[hempie]

I am away for a few days so an early prediction this week.
Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn: SNP 45, Ind 37, Con 10, Green 8
Broxtowe, Greasley: Con 44, Lab 30, UKIP 19, LD 7
Broxtowe, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: Con 57, Lab 29, Green 8, LD 6
Cambridgeshire , Sutton: Con 43, LD 28, UKIP 20, Ind 9
Chiltern , Amersham Town: Con 38 , LD 35, Lab 15, UKIP 12
Flintshire, New Brighton: LD 35, Con 32, Lab 25, Ind 8
Lichfield, Chadsmead: Con 32, LD 28, Lab 25, UKIP 12, Green 3
Manchester, Higher Blackley: Lab 61, UKIP 18, Con 9, Green 6, LD 3, Pirate 3
Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Con 42, Lab 23, UKIP 20, LD 8, West Suffolk Ind 7

[greenhert]

My by-election predictions for this week:

Argyll & Bute UA, Oban North & Lorn (1st preference votes): SNP 48, Independent 35, Conservative 11, Green 6. (SNP gain from Argyll First)
Broxtowe BC, Greasley: Con 46, Lab 32, UKIP 14, Lib Dem 8.
Broxtowe BC, Toton & Chilwell Meadows: Con 54, Lab 31, Lib Dem 8, Green 7.
Cambridgeshire CC, Sutton: Con 42, Lib Dem 33, UKIP 18, Independent 7.
Chiltern DC, Amersham Town: Con 40, Lib Dem 34, Lab 16, UKIP 10. (Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.)
Flintshire UA, New Brighton: Lib Dem 38, Lab 31, Con 25, Independent 6.
Lichfield DC, Chadsmead: Con 35, Lab 25, Lib Dem 24, UKIP 11, Green 5. (Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.)
Manchester MBC, Higher Blackley: Lab 59, UKIP 17, Con 10, Green 7, Lib Dem 5, Pirate 2.
Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Con 43, Lab 21, UKIP 20, West Suffolk Independent 10, Lib Dem 6.