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Post by middleenglander on Jan 30, 2016 12:49:11 GMT
There are 21 by-elections during February:
* 4 on 4th February
* 4 on 11th
* 9 on 18th
* 4 on 25th
9 of the contests are for District Councils
- 8 where there were "all out" elections in May 2015
- 1 with an "annual" election cycle
5 are for Metropolitan Boroughs which have an "annual" election cycle
4 are in authorities where the last elections were in 2013
- 2 County Councils
- 2 Unitary Authorities
1 in a London Borough last contested in 2014
1 in Wales last contested in 2012 and
1 in Scotland, the third by-election in the seat within less than a year, where the main elections were in 2012.
Conservatives are defending 10 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 7 after a resignation
Labour is defending 6 seats, 4 after a death and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 4 seats, 2 each following a death and resignation
Independents are defending 1 seat after a resignation
With all nominations now known:
Conservatives are contesting all 21 seats, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats and UKIP both 15, Green 11, SNP 1
there are 6 Independents and 1 each for No Description, Pirate and West Suffolk Independent
- a total of 90 candidates for the 21 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the Thursday of each week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2016 16:33:06 GMT
I will be returning to competition this month.
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Post by lennon on Feb 3, 2016 22:11:24 GMT
Another month... so here's my random number generator:
East Cambridgeshire DC, Bottisham - Con 35%, Lab 10%, LD 40%, UKIP 15%
North-West Leicestershire, Measham South - Con 40%, Lab 45%, UKIP 15%
Northumberland UA, Hexham West - Con 36%, Lab 14%, Green 10% , Ind 2%, No Description (Kennedy) 38%
Shropshire UA, Oswestry South - Con 45%, Lab 5%, LD 15%, Green 35%
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Post by greenhert on Feb 3, 2016 22:50:00 GMT
My predictions for this week's by-elections are as follows:
East Cambridgeshire DC, Bottisham: Conservative 41, Liberal Democrats 39, Labour 12, UKIP 8.
North-West Leicestershire DC, Measham South: Labour 49, Conservative 39, UKIP 12.
Northumberland UA, Hexham West: Con 44, No Description (Derek Kennedy) 36, Lab 9, Green 8, Independent (Anne Pickering) 3.
Shropshire UA, Oswestry South: Green 39, Con 37, Lab 14, Lib Dem 10.
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Post by marksenior on Feb 3, 2016 22:55:36 GMT
E Cambs LDem 38 Con 36 Lab 13 UKIP 13
NW Leics Lab 45 Con 38 UKIP 17
Northumberland No Desc 41 Con 35 Lab 12 Green 7 Ind 5
Shrops Con 44 Green 30 Lab 16 LD 10
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 3, 2016 23:24:22 GMT
E Cambs LDem 41 Con 39 Lab 10 UKIP 10
NW Leics Lab 43 Con 41 UKIP 16
Northumberland No Desc 34 Con 33 Lab 12 Green 5 Ind 16
Shrops Con 47 Green 32 Lab 11 LD 10
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 4, 2016 0:56:25 GMT
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE Bottisham: C 45, L Dem 33, UKIP 12, Lab 10
NORTHUMBERLAND Hexham West: Kennedy 39, C 38, Ind (Pickering) 11, Lab 9, GP 3
NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE Measham South: Lab 47, C 40, UKIP 13
SHROPSHIRE Oswestry South: C 48, GP 28, L Dem 15, Lab 9
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 4, 2016 3:12:19 GMT
East Cambridgeshire DC, Bottisham: LD 40, Con 38, Lab 11, UKIP 11
North-West Leicestershire DC, Measham South: Lab 50, Con 35, UKIP 15
Northumberland UA, Hexham West: Kennedy 38, Con 35, Lab 17, Ind Pickering 7, Grn 3
Shropshire UA, Oswestry South: Con 48, Grn 21, Lab 20, LD 11
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Post by hempie on Feb 4, 2016 8:18:04 GMT
East Cambridgeshire, Bottisham: LD 41, Con 36, UKIP 13, Lab 10
North-West Leicestershire, Measham South: Lab 48, Con 32, UKIP 20
Northumberland, Hexham West: Con 38, Kennedy 34, Lab 19, Ind Pickering 5, Green 4
Shropshire, Oswestry South: Con 43, Green 30, Lab 14, LD 13
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2016 9:17:38 GMT
Northumberland UA - Hexham West Con 44.2% ND 26.9% Lab 16.8% Ind 8.5% Grn 3.6% Shropshire UA - Oswestry South Con 39.7% Grn 23.3% LD 21.9% Lab 15.1% East Cambridgeshire DC - Bottisham Con 43.2% LD 37.2% Lab 12.8% UKIP 6.8% NW Leicestershire DC - Measham South Lab 47.4% Con 36.7% UKIP 15.9% |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2016 14:07:13 GMT
I will be returning to competition this month. I shall alert the Press. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2016 14:41:38 GMT
Oh dear, I forgot...
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2016 15:06:39 GMT
You have left me in an impossible position and I must tender my resignation as your press secretary. |
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Post by lennon on Feb 4, 2016 15:07:36 GMT
Strictly speaking you could still enter. Although your late points would be something to behold...  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2016 15:09:20 GMT
I may do it as 'just a bit of fun' to get myself back in the habit for competition next month.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2016 21:30:43 GMT
Tony Otim's entry;
East Cambs, Bottisham: Con 41.8, LD 35.3, UKIP 13.7, Lab 9.2
NW Leicestershire, Measham South: Lab 47.6, Con 40.1, UKIP 12.3
Northumberland, Hexham west: Con 47.4, No Des 20.2, Ind 15.6, Lab 12.6, Green 4.2
Shropshire, Oswestry South: Grn 44.6, Con 42.8, LD 7,2, Lab 5.4
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2016 21:50:47 GMT
9 entries this week with nothing from Arthur Figgis and Strinity forgetting.
East Cambs, Bottisham: 5 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative with a majority between 2% and 6%,
- whilst Greenhert, David Boothroyd, Pete Whitehead and Tony Otim have Conservative hold with a majority between 2% and 12%
NW Leicestershire, Measham South: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 16% (hempie)
Northumberland, Hexham West: 5 No Description (former Liberal Democrat councillor) gain from Conservative with a majority ranging from 1% to 6%
- whilst Greenhert, hempie, Pete Whitehead and Tony Otim have Conservative hold with a majority ranging from 4% to 17.3% over No Description
Shropshire, Oswestry South: 7 Conservative hold with majority over Green ranging from 10% (Lennon) to 27% (Maxque)
- whilst Greenhert and Tony Otim a Green gain with ~2% majority
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 4, 2016 23:25:00 GMT
East Cambridgeshire, Bottisham
Pete Whitehead 9.8 faults, Greenhert 10.6, David Boothroyd 17.9, Tony Otim 18.5, Robert Waller 11.1+10, Maxque 14.6+10, hempie 17.1+10, Lennon 21.1+10, Mark Senior 22.6+10
North West Leicestershire, Measham South
hempie 10.3 faults, Mark Senior 13.0, Robert Waller 15.0, Pete Whitehead 15.2, Lennon & Maxque 17.0, David Boothroyd 21.0, Tony Otim 22.4, Greenhert 23.0
Shropshire, Oswestry South
Tony Otim 16.4 faults, Greenhert 19.6, Robert Waller 33.6+10, Lennon 35.6+10, hempie & Mark Senior 37.6+10, David Boothroyd 41.6+10, Pete Whitehead 51.0+10, Maxque 55.6+10
And with the Northumberland, Hexham West result to come:
Greenhert 53.2 faults, Tony Otim 57.3, Robert Waller 79.7, hempie 85.1, Pete Whitehead 86.0, David Boothroyd 90.6, Mark Senior 93.2, Lennon 93.6, Maxque 107.2
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 5, 2016 11:03:45 GMT
I think when the Hexham figures are added in, we may end up with a rather amusing (to some) reversal of last month's overall result!
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 5, 2016 11:06:07 GMT
I think when the Hexham figures are added in, we may end up with a rather amusing (to some) reversal of last month's overall result! It's quite clear to me than either me or Pete will be last. Oswestry did much damage to my score, and seeing his prediction, it should be something similar for Pete with Hexham. |
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