Prediction Competition January 2016

[Tony Otim]

Jan 20, 2016 14:32:32 GMT tonyotim said:

Hertfordshire:
Con 50.9
UKIP 21.8
Lab 17.6
LD 9.7


St Helens:
Lab 68.5
Con 13.5
UKIP 12.8
Grn 5.2


South Lanarkshire:
SNP 50.3
Lab 33.1
Con 11.4
Grn 3.8
LD 1.4

Southwark:
Lab 63.2
Con 10.2
LD 7.8
Grn 5.9
Ind 4.9
UKIP 4.8
APP 3.2

Thanet:
Lab 35.9
UKIP 32.4
Con 20.1
Grn 5.2
Ind H 3.2
LD 2.1
Ind B 1.1

Wealden:
LD 45.7
Con 45.4
Lab 8.9

[middleenglander]

There are 9 entries this week with no script submitted from Arthur Figgis. Mark Senior gets 6 x 5 additional faults for being late on parade.

Hertfordshire, Bushey North: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 19% (hempie with Liberal Democrat second) to 42% (David Boothroyd over Labour)
St Helens, Thatto Heath: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 40% (Lennon over UKIP) to 56% (Mark Senior & Robert Waller over UKIP)
South Lanarkshire, Hamilton North & East: 100% SNP with first preference lead ranging from 11.4% (Pete Whitehead) to 30% (Lennon)
- Pete Westwood (45.9% share) and possibly hempie (50%) the only ones not having a SNP hold on first preferences
Southwark, Faraday: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 46% (Maxque over Green) to 69% (Lennon over Green)
Thanet, Newington: 7 Labour gain from UKIP with majority 4% or less apart from Pete Whitehead (8.4%) with David Boothroyd & Lennon UKIP hold with 4% Majority
Wealdon, Crowborough East: 7 Conservative hold majority ranging from 9% (Greenhert) to 33% (David Boothroyd) with Lennon & Tony Otim a narrow Liberal Democrat gain

[middleenglander]

Provisionally it looks like Pete Whitehead ahead for the week with hempie and Maxque close behind and then Robert Waller.

For the month to date Maxque is slightly ahead of Pete Whitehead who are then some 15 faults from hempie whilst Robert Waller is a further 10 faults behind.

Full results in the morning.

[middleenglander]

Hertfordshire, Bushey North
Mark Senior 3.9+5 faults, Lennon 16.1, hempie & Robert Waller 17.1, Maxque 17.3, Pete Whitehead 17.5, Greenhert 18.9, David Boothroyd 21.9, Tiny Otim 23.7

St Helens, Thatto Heath
hempie & Robert Waller 4.0 faults, Tony Otim 6.6, Pete Whitehead 9.2, Mark Senior 5.2+5, Maxque 12.6, Greenhert 15.4, David Boothroyd 20.3, Lennon 29.4

South Lanarkshire, Hamilton North & East
Pete Whitehead 10.4 faults, Tony Otim 16.0, Maxque 17.4, hempie 18.9, Robert Waller 20.7, Greenhert 24.7, Lennon 26.7, Mark Senior 22.2+5, David Boothroyd 28.7

Southwark, Faraday
Tony Otim 18.2 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.2, hempie 21.0, Robert Waller 22.9, Greenhert 28.9, Maxque 30.1, Mark Senior 25.2+5, David Boothroyd 33.2, Lennon 33.9

Thanet, Newington
Pete Whitehead 9.1 faults, Maxque 9.5, Tony Otim 11.1, hempie 13.7, Greenhert & Robert Waller 18.2, Mark Senior 14.2+5, Lennon 26.1+10, David Boothroyd 32.8+10

Wealden, Crowborough East
David Boothroyd 8.0 faults, Maxque 15.0, hempie 27.0, Mark Senior 24.0+5, Robert Waller 30.0, Pete Whitehead 30.2, Greenhert 33.0, Lennon 41.0+10, Tony Otim 42.4+10

For the week:
Pete Whitehead 95.6, hempie 101.7, Maxque 101.9, Robert Waller 112.9, Mark Senior 124.6, Tony Otim 127.9, Greenhert 139.1, David Boothroyd 154.9, Lennon 193.2
- Mark Senior would have been 94.6 if he had posted on time.

and for the month to date:

133.2 Maxque
134.0 Pete Whitehead

148.8 hempie
158.9 Robert Waller

169.0 Mark Senior
169.3 Tony Otim
176.4 Greenhert

205.9 David Boothroyd
237.5 Lennon

Objections please by noon Sunday.

Just one by-election in the last week of the month.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[maxque]

Congrats to Pete for the week!

[lennon]

Prediction for 28th:

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 40%, Con 25%, UKIP 25%, LD 10%

[Robert Waller]

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 50%, Con 29%, UKIP 11%, LD 10%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

STOCKTON ON TEES Parkfield and Oxbridge: Lab 45, C 34, UKIP 16, L Dem 5

[marksenior]

Stockton Lab 47 Con 33 UKIP 11 LD 9

[hempie]

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 51, Con 24, UKIP 17, LD 8

[maxque]

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 46.8, Con 30.1, UKIP 17.6, LD 5.5

[greenhert]

My prediction for the by-election in Stockton-On-Tees UA, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Labour 49, Conservative 25, UKIP 16, Liberal Democrats 10.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 27, 2016 21:55:03 GMT petewhitehead said:

Stockton on Tees UA - Parkfield & Oxbridge

Lab    53.5%
Con   24.5%
UKIP  14.5%
LD        7.5%

[Tony Otim]

Jan 26, 2016 16:47:09 GMT tonyotim said:

Stockton:
Lab 51.7
Con 24.6
UKIP 19.2
LD 4.5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Too late to revise your predictions now, but:

[Tony Otim]

Jan 28, 2016 15:48:44 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Too late to revise your predictions now, but:

I can't read that from my work machine - what does it say?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 28, 2016 16:12:42 GMT Tony Otim said:

I can't read that from my work machine - what does it say?

Jeremy Corbyn visited Teesside today and dropped in to give personal support to the byelection candidate.

[Tony Otim]

So, UKIP gain then?

[middleenglander]

9 entries again this week with all ship-shape and Bristol fashion.

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: 100% Labour hold with Conservative then UKIP and Liberal Democrat although Lennon has Conservative and UKIP tying for second
- majority ranges from 11% (David Boothroyd) to 29% (Pete Whitehead) with just Maxque and Pete Whitehead vying to be the month's winner.

[middleenglander]

Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge
Robert Waller 10.7 faults, Mark Senior 11.0, Pete Whitehead 14.7, Maxque 15.4, David Boothroyd 16.4, Tony Otim 18.6, hempie 18.7, Greenhert 20.7, Lennon 38.7

and for the month:

148.6 Maxque
148.8 Pete Whitehead

167.5 hempie
169.7 Robert Waller

180.0 Mark Senior
187.8 Tony Otim

197.2 Greenhert
222.3 David Boothroyd
276.2 Lennon

Objections please by 5.00pm Saturday

New thread for February