By-Elections - 28th June 2012

[greatkingrat]

BLABY - Ravenhurst & Fosse (Labour died)

2011 - Lab 1276/1149/1051, Con 830
2007 - Lab 975/907/869, Con 835/785
2003 - Lab 885/876/848, Con 576/556/497

Sam MAXWELL (The Labour Party Candidate)
Michael POTTER (The Conservative Party Candidate)

CHARNWOOD - Sileby (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 1278/1044, Lab 674/625
2007 - Con 1352/1302, Lab 473/401
2003 - Con 796/741, Lab 485/399, UKIP 153, LD 137

Stephen COLTMAN (Liberal Democrat)
Stephen DENHAM (British National Party)
Ken JONES (Conservative Party Candidate)
Richard WATSON (The Labour Party)

CHELMSFORD - Patching Hall (Liberal Democrat died)[/u]

2011 - LD 1307/1230/1116, Con 1072/1053/1000, Lab 592/500/449, Grn 283, Ind 143
2007 - LD 1239/1192/1058, Con 943/929/927, Lab 295/273/259, Grn 235
2003 - LD 857/797/747, Con 712/678/669, Lab 364/326/309, Grn 160

Paul BENTHAM (Liberal Democrat)
Stephen FOWELL (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Reza HOSSAIN (Green Party Candidate)
Ian NICHOLLS (UK Independence Party)
Chris VINCE (The Labour Party Candidate)

ESSEX - Chelmsford North (Liberal Democrat died)

2009 - LD 2418, Con 1659, Lab 405, Grn 376, BNP 323
2005 - LD 3276, Con 2726, Lab 2031, Grn 341

Reza HOSSAIN (Green Party Candidate)
Nastassia PLAYER (The Labour Party Candidate)
Robert PONTIN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Leslie RETFORD (UK Independence Party)
Stephen ROBINSON (Liberal Democrat)

KENSINGTON & CHELSEA - Brompton (Conservative died)

2011 by - Con 728, Lab 101, LD 86
2010 - Con 1567/1548/1523, LD 452/410, Lab 307/282/214
2008 by - Con 1748, LD 326, Lab 213
2006 - Con 1136/1121/1116, LD 177/170, Lab 156/132/121
2002 - Con 970/966/948, Lab 192/166/159, LD 177/176/146

Abbas BARKHORDAR (Conservative Party Candidate)
David COBURN (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Moya DENMAN (Liberal Democrats)
Mark SAUTTER (The Labour Party Candidate)

SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Grange Park (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 697/590, Ind 231
2009 by - Con 407, LD 128
2007 - Con x2 unopposed

Shaun HOPE (Liberal Democrat)
Tharik JAINU-DEEN (The Conservative Party Candidate)

[Deleted]

[Andrew_S]

Dec 2010 electorates:

BLABY - Ravenhurst & Fosse: 5,405
CHARNWOOD - Sileby: 5,647
CHELMSFORD - Patching Hall: 6,705
ESSEX - Chelmsford North = Patching Hall + St Andrews district wards: 13,434
KENSINGTON & CHELSEA - Brompton: 4,100
SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Grange Park: 2,923

Total: 38,214

[kevinlarkin]

Jun 13, 2012 21:30:02 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 2010 electorates:

BLABY - Ravenhurst & Fosse: 5,405
CHARNWOOD - Sileby: 5,647
CHELMSFORD - Patching Hall: 6,705
ESSEX - Chelmsford North = Patching Hall + St Andrews district wards: 13,434
KENSINGTON & CHELSEA - Brompton: 4,100
SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Grange Park: 2,923

Total: 38,214

Those are Parliamentary electorates. The local government electorate will be higher, significantly so in some areas. The May 2010 local government electorate in Brompton ward was 5,918.

[Andrew_S]

Jun 13, 2012 22:20:24 GMT kevinlarkin said:

Jun 13, 2012 21:30:02 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 2010 electorates:

BLABY - Ravenhurst & Fosse: 5,405
CHARNWOOD - Sileby: 5,647
CHELMSFORD - Patching Hall: 6,705
ESSEX - Chelmsford North = Patching Hall + St Andrews district wards: 13,434
KENSINGTON & CHELSEA - Brompton: 4,100
SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Grange Park: 2,923

Total: 38,214

Those are Parliamentary electorates. The local government electorate will be higher, significantly so in some areas. The May 2010 local government electorate in Brompton ward was 5,918.

It's just a rough guide to how many people will be eligible to vote. As you say the number of voters will be a bit higher on the local register.

[Andrew_S]

This is interesting - according to Neighbourhood statistics the Grange Park ward in South Northamptonshire had a population of only 329 in 2001. Obviously there has been substantial development since then in order to reach an electorate of around 2,923:

www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6268493&c=grange+park&d=14&e=16&g=473794&i=1001x1003x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1340840694031&enc=1&dsFamilyId=87

[East Anglian Lefty]

It's a new development on the fringes of Northampton: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grange_Park,_Northamptonshire

It strikes me that parties aside from the Conservatives have been missing a trick in not consistently nominating here. If only one party seriously contests a new development, it automatically becomes a redoubt for that party.

[andrewteale]

The current local government register shows 3,058 electors in Grange Park. I know this because the LGBCE have just started a review of Northamptonshire County Council and have published a lot of electrate information.

[Robert Waller]

If again there is not going to be a byelection live discussion on Britain Votes, i hope we can have one here!

[Andrew_S]

Jun 28, 2012 21:09:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

If again there is not going to be a byelection live discussion on Britain Votes, i hope we can have one here!

Does anyone know why the live blog doesn't seem to be taking place?

[greatkingrat]

23% turnout in Sileby and according to a Labour councillor it is "close".

[greatkingrat]

Sileby result

Conservative 703 (55.1%)
Labour 450 (35.3%)
BNP 93 (7.3%)
Liberal Democrats 29 (2.3%)

[East Anglian Lefty]

One assumes said councillor would probably not call such a result close were the totals reversed...

Ramping after the polls have closed has always confused me. What is the point?

[Pete Whitehead]

close lol

[Andrew_S]

Jun 28, 2012 21:46:25 GMT greatkingrat said:

Sileby result

Conservative 703 (55.1%)
Labour 450 (35.3%)
BNP 93 (7.3%)
Liberal Democrats 29 (2.3%)

Darn - I was going to put the LDs on about 3% in the prediction competition but decided they surely wouldn't do that badly!

[andrewteale]

Jun 28, 2012 21:32:05 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jun 28, 2012 21:09:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

If again there is not going to be a byelection live discussion on Britain Votes, i hope we can have one here!

Does anyone know why the live blog doesn't seem to be taking place?

No idea, sorry. It was promised.

[Tony Otim]

I did put the LDs on 3 but slightly underestimated the BNP - wishful thinking!

[leicester]

Jun 28, 2012 21:46:25 GMT greatkingrat said:

Sileby result

Conservative 703 (55.1%)
Labour 450 (35.3%)
BNP 93 (7.3%)
Liberal Democrats 29 (2.3%)

Expected a better showing from labour here normally have a decent team out in by elections. Dreadful vote for libs and as recent bnp votes go not to bad for them.

[The Bishop]

Jun 28, 2012 21:48:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

close lol

If he meant "close" compared to recent results........what are the changes on last year??

[Andrew_S]

Jun 28, 2012 21:55:50 GMT leicester said:

Jun 28, 2012 21:46:25 GMT greatkingrat said:

Sileby result

Conservative 703 (55.1%)
Labour 450 (35.3%)
BNP 93 (7.3%)
Liberal Democrats 29 (2.3%)

Expected a better showing from labour here normally have a decent team out in by elections. Dreadful vote for libs and as recent bnp votes go not to bad for them.

Labour didn't get close in 2003 which was a fairly decent year for them in general. Well - compared to most years since then anyway.