By-Elections - 28th June 2012

[Tony Otim]

Jun 28, 2012 21:56:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 28, 2012 21:48:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

close lol

If he meant "close" compared to recent results........what are the changes on last year??

Compared to average vote: Conservatives down 9%, Labour down 0.6%. 4.2% swing.
The conservatives down an extra percent of you use the top candidates vote only.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Result from:

SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Grange Park

Tharik JAINU-DEEN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 313 (76.2%)
Shaun HOPE (Liberal Democrat) 98 (23.8%)

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 28, 2012 21:57:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jun 28, 2012 21:55:50 GMT leicester said:

Expected a better showing from labour here normally have a decent team out in by elections. Dreadful vote for libs and as recent bnp votes go not to bad for them.

Labour didn't get close in 2003 which was a fairly decent year for them in general. Well - compared to most years since then anyway.

Considering they were defending the ward then it clearly wasn't a fairly decent result for them locally - the swing from 1999 was something like 15%. In 1995 Labour won the ward by two to one (gaining the ward from the Tories then on a swing of over 20%)

[Andrew_S]

Jun 28, 2012 22:02:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 28, 2012 21:57:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

Labour didn't get close in 2003 which was a fairly decent year for them in general. Well - compared to most years since then anyway.

Considering they were defending the ward then it clearly wasn't a fairly decent result for them locally - the swing from 1999 was something like 15%. In 1995 Labour won the ward by two to one (gaining the ward from the Tories then on a swing of over 20%)

Would Labour have carried this ward in the 1997 and 2001 general elections?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 28, 2012 22:05:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

Would Labour have carried this ward in the 1997 and 2001 general elections?

Actual result in Sileby division in 1997:

C 42.6%
Lab 40.2%
L Dem 17.2%

In 2001:

C 44.1%
Lab 39.0%
L Dem 17.0%

This division may have been wider than the present ward.

[Pete Whitehead]

The electorate was about twice as large so would have covered neighbouring wards like Wreake Villages so pretty likely Labour would have eben ahead in Sileby itself

[Davıd Boothroyd]

News from Kensington:

"@cllrtoddforeman

RBKC Brompton ward (Knightsbridge) by-election result: CON HOLD, Con to Lab swing 4.8% since 2011 Brompton ward by-election"

[Pete Whitehead]

Nice spin - that would equate to a swing to the Conservatives from the 2010 election

[middleenglander]

Jun 28, 2012 22:33:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

News from Kensington:

"@cllrtoddforeman

RBKC Brompton ward (Knightsbridge) by-election result: CON HOLD, Con to Lab swing 4.8% since 2011 Brompton ward by-election"

Would imply a Conservative majority of 59.0% compared to 68.6% in 2011 and a "top" majority of 54.2% in May 2010 and an "average" majority of 57.0%.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA Brompton

Abbas BARKHORDAR (Conservative Party Candidate) 650 (70.3%)
Mark SAUTTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 103 (11.2%)
Moya DENMAN (Liberal Democrats) 101 (10.9%)
David COBURN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 71 (7.7%)

Turnout 16.6%

[marksenior]

LD hold Chelmsford DC seat majority 354

[leicesterlad]

Result

Blaby District - Ravenhurst and Fosse

Maxwell - Lab 1083
Potter - Con 501

[marksenior]

LD hold Chelmsford North LD vote was 1,614

[leicesterlad]

Blaby District - Ravenhurst and Fosse

Maxwell - Lab 1083 68%
Potter - Con 501 32%

Electorate 5602
Turnout 28%

[marksenior]

Full Chelmsford results

Patching Hall LD 842 Con 488 Lab 309 UKIP 263 Green 84

Chelmsford N LD 1614 Con 941 Lab 711 UKIP 435 Green 134

[Pete Whitehead]

Better results for UKIP than I expected there but shouldn't be too surprising really

[Tony Otim]

For completeness:

Chelmsford:
LD 42.4
Con 24.6
Lab 15.6
UKIP 13.2
Grn 4.2


Essex:
LD 42.1
Con 24.5
Lab 18.5
UKIP 11.3
Grn 3.5

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 28, 2012 23:07:47 GMT leicesterlad said:

Blaby District - Ravenhurst and Fosse

Maxwell - Lab 1083 68%
Potter - Con 501 32%

Electorate 5602
Turnout 28%

So whats the story with Braunstone? It doesn't look like the most salubrious of neighbourhoods, but is a hell of a lot better than North Braunstone across the border in Leicester - overwhelmingly owner occupied etc. Has it become heavily Asian ? (It was about 20% 'non-white' in 2001 but I can imagine that it may have something like doubled since then)

[The Bishop]

Jun 28, 2012 23:01:18 GMT leicesterlad said:

Result

Blaby District - Ravenhurst and Fosse

Maxwell - Lab 1083
Potter - Con 501

Your prediction wasn't *quite* on the button, then.......

[Philip Davies]

IIRC Labour even won Bottesford (NE corner of Leics) in 1995.