Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 22, 2015 20:27:06 GMT
4-way marginal. Fascinating. From a Lab perspective, short of Lab winning, this result gives them the best possible chance of winning the seat in 2017. You'll have to explain that logic to me. You finished below us which makes squeezing the Labour vote that much easier and vice versa harder. The result you'll be drawing attention to is May's looking forward to '17 but to be honest, this low turnout by-election was probably the best chance Labour had of winning this seat. If we get our act back together in Epsom and Ewell I'd expect Epsom West to be a Residents/Lib Dem battle in two years time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 22, 2015 21:27:00 GMT
The Lib Dems will have an advantage of a large pool of activists next door in both Kingston and Sutton who will otherwise be sitting idle in 2017. That wasn't available to them this May of course which may partly account for their very poor results in Epsom then (indeed mutual aid may well have worked in the opposite direction)
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Post by dizz on Nov 22, 2015 22:01:26 GMT
The comment was restricted to the Conservatives having the hardest job of defending the seat as they are in Government & therefore the other parties preferring to attack them as the incumbent (rather than, for example, if the LD's won for Labour to face a rather harder job of trying to dislodge them).
Agreed that it would be better for Lab to attack from second place but they are close enough from 4th to attack from there.............................
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 22, 2015 22:08:58 GMT
The comment was restricted to the Conservatives having the hardest job of defending the seat as they are in Government & therefore the other parties preferring to attack them as the incumbent (rather than, for example, if the LD's won for Labour to face a rather harder job of trying to dislodge them). Agreed that it would be better for Lab to attack from second place but they are close enough from 4th to attack from there............................. Ah right. Certainly it should be a pretty straightforward task to eject the newly elected Tory in 2017 with them being on the defensive across the county. Who would win otherwise who knows but I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories drop back to fourth again. |
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