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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 20, 2015 11:50:58 GMT
Result from Epsom:
C 612
RA 591
LD 588
L 578
UKIP 168
G 58
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2015 12:11:38 GMT
Another pile up which the Tories somehow manage to edge.......
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 20, 2015 12:14:22 GMT
From fifth.
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Post by lennon on Nov 20, 2015 12:20:46 GMT
Another pile up which the Tories somehow manage to edge....... Indeed - 2 by-elections gains on the same day with under 25% of the vote on a low turnout... As someone in another place pointed out - could they do the same thing in Oldham? (No - it would have to be something like Con 24%, Lab 23%, UKIP 23%, LD 20%, Grn 9%, OMRLP 1% - but would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons...) |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 20, 2015 12:21:48 GMT
Result from Epsom: C 612 RA 591 LD 588 L 578 UKIP 168 G 58 After our wipeout in Epsom and Ewell in May and the obvious disagreements in the local party which led to this by-election taking place coming within 24 votes of the winner is not so bad. Bonkers result overall... |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 20, 2015 12:25:56 GMT
Another pile up which the Tories somehow manage to edge....... Indeed - 2 by-elections gains on the same day with under 25% of the vote on a low turnout... As someone in another place pointed out - could they do the same thing in Oldham? (No - it would have to be something like Con 24%, Lab 23%, UKIP 23%, LD 20%, Grn 9%, OMRLP 1% - but would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons...) LD on 20% is the most comical part of that! |
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Post by lennon on Nov 20, 2015 12:31:58 GMT
Indeed - 2 by-elections gains on the same day with under 25% of the vote on a low turnout... As someone in another place pointed out - could they do the same thing in Oldham? (No - it would have to be something like Con 24%, Lab 23%, UKIP 23%, LD 20%, Grn 9%, OMRLP 1% - but would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons...) LD on 20% is the most comical part of that! Indeed... but it's the only way I could get the winner on 24% - there aren't enough candidates! :-) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2015 12:43:35 GMT
What an utterly curious set of results. The only thing clear is that Plaid had a good night. But the Tories, Libs, Labour and UKIP had a bizarre night of blowing hot and cold.
Surprising Labour score in Epsom.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 20, 2015 12:52:23 GMT
What an utterly curious set of results. The only thing clear is that Plaid had a good night. But the Tories, Libs, Labour and UKIP had a bizarre night of blowing hot and cold. Surprising Labour score in Epsom. The net result is that the Tories finish three seats up having gained 1 from each of Lab, UKIP and LD, so I don't imagine they'll be too upset. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2015 12:53:53 GMT
Three gains by just a handful of votes combined. Ah, the joys of FPTP  And what you gain on the swings today you can lose on the roundabouts tomorrow...... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2015 12:56:22 GMT
Ah well. To next week.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 20, 2015 15:36:19 GMT
Another pile up which the Tories somehow manage to edge....... But that's the 'quality'. That is how the Premiership is won. It is the 1-0 victories when you were not playing very well that count......not the occasional 7-0 landslides. It is a good trend on the right at the moment. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 20, 2015 16:01:50 GMT
Surprising Labour score in Epsom. Their three borough councillors are all in Court ward in this division. In fact, on borough results in May the Tories won the popular vote in the wards that make up the division (though won no councillors...) as they were close behind in all three whereas Residents and Labour were a long way back in the ones they didn't win. We were a long way back in all of them... |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 20, 2015 19:24:38 GMT
And the Labour candidate in this county byelection finished top of the poll in Court, half of which is in Epsom West. Stamford ward is also fairly downmarket by the standards of the borough, historically the strongest LD area. The third ward (partly) in West is Town, where the Residents candidate yesterday was top of the poll in May.
I am fairly familiar with the kind of politics in this part of Surrey, as Epsom is in my school's catchment area and I live next door in the Conservative v Residents maelstrom of Elmbridge (where the C council leader is a very long standing friend of mine, going back to the day we arrived at the same college on General Election day October 1974).
Epsom is one of those places that might have appeared on that 'Surprising places' thread - there are substantial areas of social housing, concentrated in West county division.
I reckon there were some distinct neighbourhood patterns underlying yesterday's figures. I didn't predict that the C would come through, though.
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Post by Zardoz on Nov 20, 2015 21:58:46 GMT
I know, I was answering his question about the deadline from withdrawing. You can't withdraw once nominations are closed. Just stating fact. Not true. We have had a couple of cases in Leeds over the years - including one Lib Dem when I was Candidates' Officer. You don't get long, though. I think the deadline is the day following close of nominations. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 20, 2015 22:33:53 GMT
Ian Warren on Aylesford Green: Was previously under the impression Ukip did so well because of Harriet Yeo's profile. Ian Warren has a tendency to put too much faith in his own statistics. It's not unusual for the Tories to win solidly blue-collar wards in safe Tory constituencies. It doesn't signify very much except that it was bad result for Labour. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 20, 2015 22:55:49 GMT
Result from Epsom: C 612 RA 591 LD 588 L 578 UKIP 168 G 58 4-way marginal. Fascinating. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 20, 2015 22:57:57 GMT
Not true. We have had a couple of cases in Leeds over the years - including one Lib Dem when I was Candidates' Officer. You don't get long, though. I think the deadline is the day following close of nominations. Isn't it the day after the declaration of persons nominated? Thus allowing Sam Smith to withdraw when he realises that the excellent John Jones has been nominated? |
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Post by Zardoz on Nov 22, 2015 16:09:07 GMT
Not true. We have had a couple of cases in Leeds over the years - including one Lib Dem when I was Candidates' Officer. You don't get long, though. I think the deadline is the day following close of nominations. Isn't it the day after the declaration of persons nominated? Thus allowing Sam Smith to withdraw when he realises that the excellent John Jones has been nominated? Possibly - it's not hard to check. However, it is very soon after close of nominations as ballot papers have to be printed and distributed very quickly these days. I know that we had a case in Leeds where a candidate withdrew soon after the close of nominations in a non-target ward because his employer said it conflicted with his work (he was still in his 'probationary period'). Incredibly, he hadn't thought to check beforehand and his Local Party had not checked whether he had! |
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Post by dizz on Nov 22, 2015 16:48:54 GMT
Result from Epsom: C 612 RA 591 LD 588 L 578 UKIP 168 G 58 4-way marginal. Fascinating. From a Lab perspective, short of Lab winning, this result gives them the best possible chance of winning the seat in 2017. |
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