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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 13, 2015 12:12:46 GMT
Cambridgeshire CC, ChatterisUKIP diedJohn Freeman (LD) Richard Mandley (UKIP) Alan Melton (Con) 2013 UKIP 584 C 579 LD 358 Lab 159 2009 C 1140 LD 975 Lab 157 2005 C 1604 LD 955 Lab 926 Cumbria CC, HowgateLabour resigned (now MP for Workington)Eric Atkinson (UKIP) Gillian Troughton (Lab) Andrew Wonnacott (Con) 2013 Lab 692 C 354 Grn 98 Southwark LB, South CamberwellLabour resignedStephen Govier (All People's Party) Octavia Lamb (Lab) Benjamin Maitland (LD) Eleanor Margolies (Grn) Christopher Mottau (Con) 2014 Lab 1915/ 1853/ 1827 Grn 855/619/509 C 421/363/351 LD 315/283/237 All People's Party 176 Ind 96/70/67 2010 Lab 2688/ 2541/ 2502 LD 1509/943/872 Grn 1282/822/683 C 835/712/628 2006 Lab 1148/ 1090/967 Grn 1014/914/832 C 448/425/372 LD 339/315/247 2002 Lab 896/ 839/ 836 Grn 417/316/270 LD 314/308/259 C 279/261/258 Socialist Alliance 95 Andrew Teale's previews: blog.englishelections.org.uk/2015/10/by-election-previews-15-october-2015.htmlThis post was hijacked by AdminSTB, sorry. 
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Post by greenhert on Oct 13, 2015 13:16:06 GMT
Keep in mind that my fellow Greens were represented on the South Camberwell ward from 2006-2010 (by Jenny Jones, now Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb) so I am holding out for a surprise Green gain there.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 13, 2015 13:22:27 GMT
If Howgate is anything other than a labour hold with a increased percentage majority then it's a disaster. Ditto camber well. Making sweeping claims of this kind about council byelections (which can often be influenced by local factors and events) is not terribly helpful tbh. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 13, 2015 16:58:56 GMT
TBH given recent results in Fenland, if the Tories don't gain Chatteris it'll be a disaster for them. I'd expect a fairly hefty majority and the LDs might be an outside shot for second.
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 13, 2015 20:07:56 GMT
Sorry, I couldn't insert an earlier post so I just hijacked Robert Waller's post and added all the usual details! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 13, 2015 22:01:40 GMT
Thank you KK, very helpful.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,308 
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Oct 14, 2015 0:06:10 GMT
Sorry I couldn't do it, I had begun but it's quite hectic here with the elections next week
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 15, 2015 9:26:11 GMT
Keep in mind that my fellow Greens were represented on the South Camberwell ward from 2006-2010 (by Jenny Jones, now Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb) so I am holding out for a surprise Green gain there. I notice you optimism isn't absolute  : My by-election predictions for this week are as follows: Southwark LBC, South Camberwell: Lab 59, Green 18, Con 11, Lib Dem 10, All People's Party 2. |
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Post by shadsy on Oct 15, 2015 9:40:24 GMT
I think that's a pretty good prediction for South Camberwell (I live in the ward). Wouldn't be surprised if the Greens do a little better, as they have a pretty good candidate - certainly compared to Labour.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 15, 2015 9:48:25 GMT
My rule in byelection predictions goes like this: "The Green Party is crap at byelections".
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 15, 2015 9:52:49 GMT
My rule in byelection predictions goes like this: "The Green Party is crap at byelections". Regrettably that seems to still be the case, although there are always a few exceptions each year. We do seem to be doing a little bit better in SGP, admittedly from a low starting point. |
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322
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Post by wallington on Oct 15, 2015 12:01:18 GMT
My rule in byelection predictions goes like this: "The Green Party is crap at byelections". Agree, we really do seem to struggle at by-elections, especially (it seems) in London. I have helped out in South Camberwell and the Green operation is pretty slick compared to many local Green parties (including mine, but at least we're ahead of Merton!). While the Green vote will be down on previous elections, it'll be interesting to see how we do in a ward in London we are relatively strong in up against a Corbyn led Labour Party. My unscientific idea is that we may struggle in London over the next few years and other many large metropolitan areas, but the vote may hold up in smaller semi-rural areas and market towns, such as in the South West. However, I have no idea how true this will be and is just a theory based on nothing much yet. (Saying that, I think we wont lose seats on the London Assembly next year, which will probably be very disappointing to some members who seem to think we will be gaining seats next year). |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2015 12:43:08 GMT
My rule in byelection predictions goes like this: "The Green Party is crap at byelections". Agree, we really do seem to struggle at by-elections, especially (it seems) in London. I have helped out in South Camberwell and the Green operation is pretty slick compared to many local Green parties (including mine, but at least we're ahead of Merton!). Little victories! When I first moved to Haringey our (unofficial) Labour party slogan was "At least we're better than Hackney".  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2015 22:02:28 GMT
Agree, we really do seem to struggle at by-elections, especially (it seems) in London. I have helped out in South Camberwell and the Green operation is pretty slick compared to many local Green parties (including mine, but at least we're ahead of Merton!). Little victories! When I first moved to Haringey our (unofficial) Labour party slogan was "At least we're better than Hackney". "Civil war in London Labour, says Labour veteran". |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2015 22:13:11 GMT
Little victories! When I first moved to Haringey our (unofficial) Labour party slogan was "At least we're better than Hackney". "Civil war in London Labour, says Labour veteran". He He. At the time Hackney couldn't have organised a charabanc to Stamford Hill, so we wouldn't have been worried by a declaration of war a la The Napoleon of Notting Hill. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 15, 2015 22:25:31 GMT
"Civil war in London Labour, says Labour veteran". He He. At the time Hackney couldn't have organised a charabanc to Stamford Hill, so we wouldn't have been worried by a declaration of war a la The Napoleon of Notting Hill. Ah the richness of your spoils night after night. |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 15, 2015 22:30:35 GMT
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Post by nigelashton on Oct 15, 2015 22:41:37 GMT
The Lib Dem candidate has just posted on Facebook that he lost by 21 votes |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 15, 2015 22:46:25 GMT
Thanks Nigel. Shame....
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Post by greenhert on Oct 15, 2015 22:46:43 GMT
Cumbria CC, Howgate is reported as a Labour hold by Britain Elects. Figures coming shortly.
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