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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 2, 2015 16:26:36 GMT
Fascinating to see Lab (and what's left of the LDs) getting squeezed across the board in Scotland. Cons doing very well. Corbyn bounce. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786 
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Post by john07 on Oct 2, 2015 18:24:59 GMT
It says "SNP got 1,388. Labour got 1,272. The SNP won by an incredibly tiny wafer-thin margin of only 116 votes, but the Returning Officer didn't let us have a recount when we requested one. Boo hoo, not fair, we are going to complain, bla bla bla." A 10% majority isn't "wafer thin". Where did the 10% come from? I make the majority 4.3%! |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,772
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 2, 2015 19:44:49 GMT
A 10% majority isn't "wafer thin". Where did the 10% come from? I make the majority 4.3%! 116 / 1272 = 9.1% |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 2, 2015 19:52:07 GMT
Going by your logic, do Labour have a 697% majority over UKIP in Knowsley?
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 2, 2015 20:02:33 GMT
Stirling East stage 2 (elimination of Green): Stage 3 (elimination of Con): SNP 1388 (+21) Lab 1272 (+138) Majority = 116 / 2660 |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 2, 2015 21:13:53 GMT
Middle England? I take it you haven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year. It's not middle England in the conventional sense (chocolate-box areas that have never voted anything but Tory, except perhaps narrowly in 1995), but in the more meaningful sense of areas that are plausibly competitive it counts. Whilst it may not be a terribly lovely area, we get nowhere in plenty of fairly unappealing southern wards, particularly if they're in safe Tory constituencies. It's not an earth-shattering result, but it's something to be quietly pleased about. And Boy are you in need of things to be 'quietly pleased about'! Bit quieter next time please. Must remember to make a fuss when the right win in Harrogate next time, seeing as it is in darkest Yorkshire leftie heartlands. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 2, 2015 21:18:01 GMT
It's not middle England in the conventional sense (chocolate-box areas that have never voted anything but Tory, except perhaps narrowly in 1995), but in the more meaningful sense of areas that are plausibly competitive it counts. Whilst it may not be a terribly lovely area, we get nowhere in plenty of fairly unappealing southern wards, particularly if they're in safe Tory constituencies. It's not an earth-shattering result, but it's something to be quietly pleased about. It's not really in the south though. It feels much more South Midlands- sort of the same way as Rugby or Northampton. Grimsbury & Castle (along with Neithrop) is where the Asian population is most heavily concentrated- so it's probably a comparable ward to Castle in Northampton. Anecdotally, as well as from my own observations, turnout among Asian voters seemed to be higher than average. Doubt that made enough of a difference, mind you. Aye! Nowt south about 'er...narry a silver spoun to be 'ed for babby and in't dreer Oxfordshire! Nouff sed! EDIT The above was an inconsequential flight of light humour (poor or otherwise) and no offence was intended to East Anglian sensibilities. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 2, 2015 21:30:52 GMT
If you're not pissed as a newt, that's probably actually a worse reflection on your character than if you are. Given that you very clearly have precisely no interest in psephology, I'm a bit mystified why you have to share your expertise with us away from the main forum.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 2, 2015 23:06:21 GMT
And very pleasing results for Labour in a marginal middle England ward The candidate who won last year spoke at conference : enthusiastically pro JC and accent which reminded me of my maternal grandfather Middle England? I take it you hatven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year. I have. But traditionally we just don't do that well in these sort of small towns - just like you don't do well in middle class wards in northern cities. So it's a good result. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 2, 2015 23:20:19 GMT
If you're not pissed as a newt, that's probably actually a worse reflection on your character than if you are. Given that you very clearly have precisely no interest in psephology, I'm a bit mystified why you have to share your expertise with us away from the main forum. And what is wrong with tired and emotional newts? EAL.......If you were not buzzing around just out of reach I suppose i would just have to invent you myself. Don't you have better things to do with your time? "Precisely no interest in psephology..." Only you could have phrased that in quite that prissy manner! And you know I have an interest in it so it makes the comment even more 5th Form than normal. Give it a rest old chap. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 3, 2015 1:30:34 GMT
A 10% majority isn't "wafer thin". Neither is 4%. But you need to explain that to the Stirling Labour Party, not me. P.S. My "wafer thin" was a paraphrase of the original statement, which said |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 3, 2015 9:37:15 GMT
Fraser being shit was merely coincidental. My best man ladies and gentlemen... I don't have the figures to hand for the by election in 2007 I'd be interested to see a comparison in the vote from there if anyone has them. Labour vote is well down however the sitting labour Cllr for the ward is the council leader with a high profile an excellent reputation and will have no bother getting re elected next time. The winning SNP candidate is a nice enough guy who has been elected under a flag of convenience he would be equally at home in a libdem or a conservative group but he knows what way the electoral winds are blowing. I would put money he voted No in the referendum and thanks to the secrecy of the ballot he will be able to again in any future referendum. Because you said such nice things about me in another thread, I'm happy to oblige. The change in vote share in the Midstocket/Rosemount ward of Aberdeen City Council between the 2007 by-election and the 2015 by-election was as follows: | Conservative | -4.22% |
| | Green | +5.96% | Did not stand in 2007
| | Labour | +3.68% |
| Lib Dem
| -15.1% |
| | SNP | +11.41% |
| | Solidarity | -1.05% | Did not stand in 2015
| | Independent | -0.68% | Did not stand in 2015
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 3, 2015 9:43:45 GMT
A 10% majority isn't "wafer thin". Neither is 4%. But you need to explain that to the Stirling Labour Party, not me. P.S. My "wafer thin" was a paraphrase of the original statement, which said Over the years, Returning Officers in Scotland have been explaining to candidates and agents that closeness in and of itself is not sufficient to require a recount to be granted. If there was an issue at any point, it should have been raised there and then; that is the point of having counting agents. And as far as STV elections go, you should not be waiting until the preliminary result is advised to start complaining about any irregularities that happened early on in the count proceedings. Not that the Stirling Labour Party detail what they believe was wrongly done. And it's beyond me why they are saying the SNP refused a request for a recount. The decision is solely for the RO. Other candidates don't have a veto. Wibble indeed. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2015 11:05:08 GMT
Very disappointing that the swing against us has got worse since March this year. It was comfortably the worst of Labour's results yesterday - maybe our own local spy @jimboo has a comment? (I do vaguely recall his saying that Labour put a lot of effort into the spring contest, though of course to little avail - maybe they didn't try so hard this time?) Alan Seath is a serious defender of travellers rights and the SNP are running about attacking the presence of travellers sites in Kinglassie and Glenrothes as a whole. Apparently the "tinks" are not Scottish enough. No fracking principals. Not quite if you want a nigga for a neighbour vote Labour, not far of it though. The anti traveller stance by the SNP paid dividends. www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/job-fears-over-plans-for-new-travellers-site-in-glenrothes-1.852797 |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 3, 2015 21:18:08 GMT
If you're not pissed as a newt, that's probably actually a worse reflection on your character than if you are. Given that you very clearly have precisely no interest in psephology, I'm a bit mystified why you have to share your expertise with us away from the main forum. And what is wrong with tired and emotional newts? EAL.......If you were not buzzing around just out of reach I suppose i would just have to invent you myself. Don't you have better things to do with your time? "Precisely no interest in psephology..." Only you could have phrased that in quite that prissy manner! And you know I have an interest in it so it makes the comment even more 5th Form than normal. Give it a rest old chap. I realise and accept that you will always continue to act as if your age was 12, regardless of how decrepit you become. I accept that you will be tedious up until the very last breath escapes your body. But there is a forum for tiresome reactions to red rags and for predictable partisan invective. It is called General Discussion and you are a large part of the reason why it is even more unreadable than has historically been the norm. This is a forum for discussing local by-election results and it would be pleasant if it could be done with some minimal level of interest in the results and the reasons why they incurred. If it's just going to be a forum for cheerleading and for your usual post-reality magical thinking, then the forum has basically just become a Youtube comment thread. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 3, 2015 22:55:23 GMT
And very pleasing results for Labour in a marginal middle England ward The candidate who won last year spoke at conference : enthusiastically pro JC and accent which reminded me of my maternal grandfather Middle England? I take it you haven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year. Oddly, and unintentionally, I spent a fair bit of time in Grimsbury this morning, after finding I had a puncture on the way to Sutton Coldfield Town FC and finding that the most convenient tyre repair businesses off the M40 were all concentrated on Middleton Road, Banbury ... |
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Chris
Independent
Posts: 573
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Post by Chris on Oct 5, 2015 15:46:49 GMT
Middle England? I take it you haven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year. Oddly, and unintentionally, I spent a fair bit of time in Grimsbury this morning, after finding I had a puncture on the way to Sutton Coldfield Town FC and finding that the most convenient tyre repair businesses off the M40 were all concentrated on Middleton Road, Banbury ... Ah, so you drove past the HMO's and social housing blocks that are of course the traditional centre piece of this leafy shire ward  Grimsbury and Castle ward is an interesting place because it defies convention through its diversity. It has a leafy hamlet (Nethercote), modern executive estates, HMOs (along the Middleton Road and compass point streets), 1950s semis in various states of repair, luxury retirement apartments, social housing blocks, traditional terraces and even a small travellers camp. For either Labour or the Conservatives to claim it as their natural territority would be foolhardy. The local Labour party are heralding this as a victory for Corbyn in "evil Tory heartlands". If this false confidence leads them to put Corbyn front and centre of their campaign for Cherwell next year I think they will be in for an almightly surprise. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2015 15:57:05 GMT
They may say that, it doesn't mean they really believe it |
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Chris
Independent
Posts: 573
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Post by Chris on Oct 5, 2015 16:26:29 GMT
They may say that, it doesn't mean they really believe it The Labour members around here needed no persuassion to drink the kool-aid, bar a couple of the Blairites! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2015 9:22:16 GMT
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