By-elections - 1st October

[johnr]

Midstocket/Rosemount

Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party) 605 votes
Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 672 votes
Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 238 votes
Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party) 1,168 votes
Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party) 170 votes

George Street/Harbour

Brian Davidson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 195 votes
Euan Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 96 votes
Michael Hutchison (Scottish National Party) 961 votes
Alex Jarvis (Scottish Green Party) 136 votes
Mike Scott (Scottish Labour Party) 490 votes

[Tony Otim]

Midstocket/Rosemount:

SNP 40.9 (+1.9)
Con 23.6 (+9.8)
Lab 21.2 (-11.2)
LD 8.3 (+1.9)
Grn 6.0 (-0.4)

Very good result for the Conservatives.

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 2, 2015 10:47:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

I can't actually see this on this computer, what does it say?

Essentially it can be summarised in one word.

Wibble.

[marksenior]

Oct 2, 2015 10:59:12 GMT Tony Otim said:

Midstocket/Rosemount:

SNP 40.9 (+1.9)
Con 23.6 (+9.8)
Lab 21.2 (-11.2)
LD 8.3 (+1.9)
Grn 6.0 (-0.4)

Very good result for the Conservatives.

Compared to 2012 but not compared to 2007/2008

[Tony Otim]

George St/Harbour:
SNP 51.2 (+17.5)
Lab 26.1 (-6.4)
Con 10.4 (+3.7)
Grn 7.2 (-0.1)
LD 5.1 (-4.8)

[Tony Otim]

Oct 1, 2015 22:45:46 GMT maxque said:

Britain Elects also have numbers for Irvine Valley (I don't know where they get them, but congrats to them I suppose).

SNP 49.8% (+5.3)
Con 24.0% (+5.8)
Lab 23.8% (-6.4)
Grn 2.4%

I don't think we've had the votes yet:
SNP 1797
Con 865
Lab 860
Grn 88

[East Anglian Lefty]

Oct 2, 2015 6:13:39 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Oct 1, 2015 23:35:52 GMT Merseymike said:

And very pleasing results for Labour in a marginal middle England ward

The candidate who won last year spoke at conference : enthusiastically pro JC and accent which reminded me of my maternal grandfather

Middle England? I take it you haven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year.

It's not middle England in the conventional sense (chocolate-box areas that have never voted anything but Tory, except perhaps narrowly in 1995), but in the more meaningful sense of areas that are plausibly competitive it counts. Whilst it may not be a terribly lovely area, we get nowhere in plenty of fairly unappealing southern wards, particularly if they're in safe Tory constituencies. It's not an earth-shattering result, but it's something to be quietly pleased about.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 2, 2015 10:54:59 GMT johnr said:

Midstocket/Rosemount

Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party) 605 votes
Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 672 votes
Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 238 votes
Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party) 1,168 votes
Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party) 170 votes

SNP elected at Stage 4, after elimination of Green, LD and presumably Labour.

[finsobruce]

Oct 2, 2015 7:38:07 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Grimsbury is the only bit of Banbury I have been to. I was surprised it wasn't Labour already!

Since Labour  hold the other two seats in the ward, you could say it already is.

[johnloony]

Oct 2, 2015 10:47:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

I can't actually see this on this computer, what does it say?

It says "SNP got 1,388. Labour got 1,272. The SNP won by an incredibly tiny wafer-thin margin of only 116 votes, but the Returning Officer didn't let us have a recount when we requested one. Boo hoo, not fair, we are going to complain, bla bla bla."

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 2, 2015 11:16:40 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Oct 2, 2015 6:13:39 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Middle England? I take it you haven't ever been to Grimsbury. It's a ward Labour should really be winning with plenty to spare in an average year.

It's not middle England in the conventional sense (chocolate-box areas that have never voted anything but Tory, except perhaps narrowly in 1995), but in the more meaningful sense of areas that are plausibly competitive it counts. Whilst it may not be a terribly lovely area, we get nowhere in plenty of fairly unappealing southern wards, particularly if they're in safe Tory constituencies. It's not an earth-shattering result, but it's something to be quietly pleased about.

It's not really in the south though. It feels much more South Midlands- sort of the same way as Rugby or Northampton. Grimsbury & Castle (along with Neithrop) is where the Asian population is most heavily concentrated- so it's probably a comparable ward to Castle in Northampton.

Anecdotally, as well as from my own observations, turnout among Asian voters seemed to be higher than average. Doubt that made enough of a difference, mind you.

[Tony Otim]

BTW, it's confirmed that the indy won in Moray. NO details of transfers yet.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 2, 2015 13:11:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

BTW, it's confirmed that the indy won in Moray. NO details of transfers yet.

I believe it went like this. 

                         Stage I        Stage II       Stage III
Slater (Ind)              1,323  +   59  1,382  +  393  1,775 ELECTED
OHara (SNP)               1,003  +   51  1,054  +   46  1,100
Bloomfield (C)              703  +   22    725  -  725      -
Mackessack-Leitch (SGP)     192  -  192      -              -

NON TRANSFERRABLE             -  +   60     60  +  286    346

[Tony Otim]

And finally, West Lothian:

SNP 2049 (43.1, +1.4)
Lab 1088 (22.9, +2.6)
Con 973 (20.5, -12.7)
Grn 282 (5.9, +5.9)
No Desc 230 (4.8)
LD 133 (2.8, +2.8)

SNP not elected until stage 6

[Tony Otim]

And yes that is a swing from SNP to Lab since 2012!!!!

[The Bishop]

Oct 2, 2015 9:01:16 GMT johnr said:

Oct 2, 2015 7:48:21 GMT timmullen1 said:

If you follow the various Tweets from the press at the count, this Tweet was based just on the postal votes as Watson's next Tweet was that the first ballot box had arrived, but everyone there, including the SNP, were talking of a close result. It would appear Labour still have the organisation to be competitive on postal votes but the SNP blitzed them with on the day voters.

Very disappointing that the swing against us has got worse since March this year.

It was comfortably the worst of Labour's results yesterday - maybe our own local spy @jimboo has a comment?

(I do vaguely recall his saying that Labour put a lot of effort into the spring contest, though of course to little avail - maybe they didn't try so hard this time?)

[Tony Otim]

Linlithgow, Stage 2 (elimination of LD):
SNP 2061 (+12)
Lab 1131 (+43)
Con 992 (+19)
Grn 303 (+21)
ND 246 (+16)

non transferrable 22


Stage 3 (elimination of no desc):
SNP 2099 (+38)
Lab 1175 (+44)
Con 1056 (+64)
Grn 346 (+43)

non transferable 79 (+57)


Stage 4 (elimination of Grn):
SNP 2234 (+135)
Lab 1279 (+104)
Con 1070 (+14)

non transferrable 172 (+93)


Stage 5 (elimination of Con):
SNP 2325 (+91)
Lab 1644 (+365)

non transferable 786 (+614)

[bolbridge]

Fascinating to see Lab (and what's left of the LDs) getting squeezed across the board in Scotland. Cons doing very well.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 2, 2015 12:26:12 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 2, 2015 10:47:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

I can't actually see this on this computer, what does it say?

It says "SNP got 1,388. Labour got 1,272. The SNP won by an incredibly tiny wafer-thin margin of only 116 votes, but the Returning Officer didn't let us have a recount when we requested one. Boo hoo, not fair, we are going to complain, bla bla bla."

A 10% majority isn't "wafer thin".

[marksenior]

Oct 2, 2015 14:54:26 GMT bolbridge said:

Fascinating to see Lab (and what's left of the LDs) getting squeezed across the board in Scotland. Cons doing very well.

I don't think you can deduce that from the results as a whole .