By-elections - 1st October

[timmullen1]

Oct 2, 2015 6:26:51 GMT @davedare said:

Oct 1, 2015 21:30:38 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Early hints from Glenrothes West and Kinglassie:

Not sure what is regarded as a walkover in Scotland.

If you follow the various Tweets from the press at the count, this Tweet was based just on the postal votes as Watson's next Tweet was that the first ballot box had arrived, but everyone there, including the SNP, were talking of a close result. It would appear Labour still have the organisation to be competitive on postal votes but the SNP blitzed them with on the day voters.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 2, 2015 7:38:07 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Grimsbury is the only bit of Banbury I have been to. I was surprised it wasn't Labour already!

Its not the worst part of that dump of a town however

[johnr]

Oct 2, 2015 7:48:21 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 2, 2015 6:26:51 GMT @davedare said:

Not sure what is regarded as a walkover in Scotland.

If you follow the various Tweets from the press at the count, this Tweet was based just on the postal votes as Watson's next Tweet was that the first ballot box had arrived, but everyone there, including the SNP, were talking of a close result. It would appear Labour still have the organisation to be competitive on postal votes but the SNP blitzed them with on the day voters.

Very disappointing that the swing against us has got worse since March this year.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Rough turnout figures in Aberdeen: around 15% for George Street/Harbour and around 25% for Midstocket/Rosemount.

Courtesy of local radio journalist Roberta Thomson

UPDATE: Official turnout figures now.

George Street/Harbour: Electorate 12,179. Votes 1,898. Turnout 15.6%
Midstocket/Rosemount: Electorate 11,825. Votes 2,872. Turnout 24.3%

[Tony Otim]

Stirling East:

SNP 1311 (45.2%) (+12.1)
Lab 1094 (37.7) (-6.8)
Con 343 (11.8) (+4.0)
Grn 152 (5.2) (+1.0)

[Tony Otim]

Stirling East stage 2 (elimination of Green):
SNP 1367 (+56)
Lab 1134 (+40)
Con 352 (+9)

Stage 3 (elimination of Con):
SNP 1388 (+21)
Lab 1272 (+138)

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 30, 2015 2:45:53 GMT maxque said:

Late, but


Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen - Fraser Forsyth (Independent, elected as Conservative) resigned due to moving to York.

2012: SNP 1233/264, Lab 1247, Con 531, Grn 245, LD 245, Ind 82 (winners: Lab, SNP, Con on 6th count; final count Con 751, SNP 580)
Aug 08 by: SNP 873, Con 821, LD 693, Lab 518, Solidarity 31, Ind 20 (final and 5th count: SNP 1258, Con 1122)
2007: Con 1503, SNP 1431, LD 671/529, Lab 1144, SSP 153 (winners: Con, SNP, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1281, LD 1201)
)

Meant to ask this earlier but anyone know why the Conservative vote crashed so badly between 2007/8 and 2012?

[Arthur Figgis]

Dodgy candidate in 2012?

[Pete Whitehead]

I wondered if there was anything else besides the obvious

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The SNP have gained Midstocket/Rosemount.

SNP candidate Alex Nicol got 1,168 votes (presumably first prefs as this isn't 50%).

[Tony Otim]

Oct 2, 2015 10:17:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I wondered if there was anything else besides the obvious

Wasn't he also the candidate in 2008 though?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Stirling Labour Party statement

[Deleted]

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

WTF

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SNP hold George Street/Harbour.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Heldon and Laich first preferences:

Dennis Slater 1,323
SNP 1,003
Conservatives 703
Greens 192

[borderscot]

Oct 2, 2015 10:13:19 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 30, 2015 2:45:53 GMT maxque said:

Late, but


Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen - Fraser Forsyth (Independent, elected as Conservative) resigned due to moving to York.

2012: SNP 1233/264, Lab 1247, Con 531, Grn 245, LD 245, Ind 82 (winners: Lab, SNP, Con on 6th count; final count Con 751, SNP 580)
Aug 08 by: SNP 873, Con 821, LD 693, Lab 518, Solidarity 31, Ind 20 (final and 5th count: SNP 1258, Con 1122)
2007: Con 1503, SNP 1431, LD 671/529, Lab 1144, SSP 153 (winners: Con, SNP, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1281, LD 1201)
)

Meant to ask this earlier but anyone know why the Conservative vote crashed so badly between 2007/8 and 2012?

From memory the Conservative candidate in 2007 was John Porter who'd been a councillor for around 30 years. He also came very close to winning Gordon in 1992. I suspect the large drop is the loss of his personal vote.

Incidentally I would expect to see quite a large drop in the Tory vote in Linlithgow for similar reasons. 

[Tony Otim]

Oct 2, 2015 10:37:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Heldon and Laich first preferences:

Dennis Slater 1,323
SNP 1,003
Conservatives 703
Greens 192

Ind 41.1
SNP 31.1
Con 21.8
Grn 6.0

Changes from 2012:
SNP -5.9
Con +4.5
Grn -0.6

Changes from 2013 by:
SNP +4.2
Con +6.5
Grn -1.4

Should be a comfortably indy gain

[afleitch]

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

The fact Stirling Labour can't grasp the concept of an STV election after 8 years is either worrying or an indication that the entire Stirling Labour party is one man and his twitter account.

[timmullen1]

Oct 2, 2015 10:35:16 GMT joe said:

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

WTF

Sounds a bit like Stoke that in May managed to "misplace" votes in all three Parliamentary seats and every Council Ward. The Acting Acting Returning Officer (the Acting Returning Officer had a nervous breakdown on the day nominations closed) was accepting requests for recounts in Council Wards where the margin was below 120.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 2, 2015 10:33:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Stirling Labour Party statement

I can't actually see this on this computer, what does it say?