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Post by marksenior on Sept 10, 2015 6:44:28 GMT
Edinburgh SNP 30 Green 22 Lab 20 Con 13 Lib Dem 7 UKIP 3 Ind 3 SSP 1 Left Unity 1 Libert 0
Maidstone Con 28 LD 24 Lab 19 UKIP 14 Green 10 Ind 5
Midlothian SNP 54 Lab 23 Con 12 LD 5 Green 4 Tedford 2
Sandwell Lab 44 Con 36 UKIP 14 Green 6
Thurrock Lab 51 Con 30 UKIP 19
Tunbridge Wells Con 56 LD 30 UKIP 14
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Post by hempie on Sept 10, 2015 7:05:54 GMT
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 37, Lab 24, Green 15, Con 9, LD 4, UKIP 4, Soc 3, Ind 2, Libertarian 1, LU 1
Maidstone, Fant: Con 27, LD 25, Lab 19, UKIP 13, Green 10, Ind 6
Midlothian, Midlothian West: SNP 53, Lab 24, Con 12, Green 4, LD 4, Ind 3
Sandwell, Blackheath: Lab 46, Con 30, UKIP 20, Green 4
Thurrock, West Thurrock & South Stifford: Lab 40, UKIP 30, Con 30
Tunbridge Wells, Southborough North: Con 57, LD 30, UKIP 13
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 10, 2015 7:58:39 GMT
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 37.4, L 26.6, G 22.1, C 6.6, LD 4.3, Soc 0.9, UKIP 0.7, Ind 0.6, Left Unity 0.6, Libertarian 0.2.
Maidstone, Fant: LD 28.9, C 26.3, L 19.5, UKIP 11.9, G 9.9, Ind 3.5.
Midlothian, Midlothian West: SNP 46.6, L 26.8, C 10.4, G 8.4, LD 5.5, No Description 2.3.
Sandwell, Blackheath: L 43.3, C 36.3, UKIP 16.5, G 3.9.
Thurrock, West Thurrock & South Stifford: L 42.3, C 33.7, UKIP 24.0.
Tunbridge Wells, Southborough North: C 58.9, LD 30.1, UKIP 11.0.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 10, 2015 8:03:05 GMT
EDINBURGH Leith Walk: SNP 38, Lab 24, SGP 18, C 7, SSP 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2, L Dem 2, LU 2, Lib 1
MAIDSTONE Fant: C 32, L Dem 30, Lab 25, Ind 5, UKIP 4, GP 4
MIDLOTHIAN Midlothian West: SNP 51, Lab 29, C 10, Ind 4, L Dem 4, SGP 2
SANDWELL Blackheath: Lab 39, C 37, UKIP 20, GP 4
THURROCK West Thurrock and South Stifford: Lab 40, UKIP 31, C 29
TUNBRIDGE WELLS Southborough North: C 62, L Dem 28, UKIP 10
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 10, 2015 8:06:25 GMT
Edinburgh: SNP 38.6 Lab 22.2 Grn 20.9 Con 8.4 LD 4.4 Ind 1.7 SSP 1.4 Left Unity 1 UKIP 0.8 Libertarian 0.6 (First seat SNP, second too close to call). Maidstone: Con 26.5 Lab 21.5 LD 18.5 Grn 17.1 UKIP 12.3 Ind 5.1 Midlothian: SNP 50.1 Lab 25.6 Con 11.1 Grn 5.7 LD 4.3 No Desc 3.2 Sandwell: Lab 44.3 Con 34.7 UKIP 16.6 Grn 4.4 Thurrock: Lab 45.2 Con 32.8 UKIP 22.0 Tunbridge Wells: Con 59.3 LD 32.2 UKIP 8.5 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2015 8:09:11 GMT
Sandwell MB - Blackheath Lab 42.2% UKIP 29.2% Con 24.8% Grn 3.8% Thurrock UA - West Thurrock & South Stifford Lab 39.2% UKIP 35.5% Con 25.3% Maidstone BC - Fant LD 26.8% Con 24.4% Lab 21.3% Grn 15.1% UKIP 12.4% Tunbridge Wells BC - Southborough North Con 59.9% LD 27.4% UKIP 12.7% Edinburgh - Leith Walk SNP 40.2% Lab 24.2% Grn 17.3% Con 8.8% LD 4.6% SSP 2.1% Ind 1.1% UKIP 0.9% Lib 0.8% Midlothian - Midlothian West SNP 54.6% Lab 22.1% Con 8.9% ND 5.4% LD 5.3% Grn 3.7% I noticed this morning that I had missed the Independent candidate in Maidstone so sent an amended prediction for that ward Maidstone BC - Fant LD 25.8% Con 23.4% Lab 20.3% Grn 14.1% UKIP 11.4% Ind 5.0% |
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Post by lennon on Sept 10, 2015 8:32:51 GMT
Sigh... Penalty points for being 30mins late, but here goes anyway:
EDINBURGH Leith Walk: SNP 40, Lab 25, Green 22, Con 7, LDem 5, UKIP 3, SSP 1, Ind 1, Left Unity 1, Lib 1
MAIDSTONE Fant: Con 27, L Dem 26, Lab 25, Green 15, UKIP 5, Ind 2
MIDLOTHIAN Midlothian West: SNP 55, Lab 25, C 10, L Dem 5, Green 3, Ind 2
SANDWELL Blackheath: Lab 40, C 28, UKIP 25, Green 7
THURROCK West Thurrock and South Stifford: UKIP 34, Con 33, Lab 33
TUNBRIDGE WELLS Southborough North: Con 55, UKIP 25, Lib Dem 20
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2015 14:27:29 GMT
11 entries this week. Lennon gets 30 (I think) faults for a late entry and also 6 faults for adding to 106 in Edinburgh Leith Walk
Sandwell - Blackheath: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 1% (Just Looking) to 16% Hempie all over the Conservatives except for Pete Whitehead who has UKIP 2nd
Thurrock - West Thurrock etc: 9 Labour holds, majority ranging from 3.7% to 21% over a mixture of UKIP and Conservatives. Just Looking predicts a Conservative gain and Lennon a UKIP gain
Maidstone - Fant: 6 predict a Conservative hold with majorities ranging from 2-4% over various opponents with Robert Waller, Arthur Figgis, Greenherts, Pete Whitehead and Maxque predicting a Lib Dem gain with a similarly narrow range of leads from 1% to 4.8%
Tunbridge Wells - Southborough North: 100% Conservative hold majority ranging from 14% to 34%. All have Lib Dems second except for Lennon who has UKIP second
Edinburgh Leith Walk: 100% have SNP leading on 1st Preferences with lead ranign from 10% to 35%. All have Labour second except for Mark Senior who puts the Greens in that position
Midlothian - Midlothian West: 100% SNP lead on first Prefs with majority ranging from 22% to 36%. Everyone has Labour second and everyone has SNP being elected on first count except for Arthur Figgis
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 10, 2015 14:32:24 GMT
Edinburgh Leith Walk: 100% have SNP leading on 1st Preferences with lead ranign from 10% to 35%. All have Labour second except for Mark Senior who puts the Greens in that position Mark is also the only one who doesn't have the SNP getting quota on 1st prefs, just for interest. Thanks to DRO for the summary. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 10, 2015 15:43:41 GMT
I suspect that whoever wins Fant the majority will be very much higher than anyone has predicted .
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Post by lennon on Sept 10, 2015 15:50:22 GMT
I suspect that whoever wins Fant the majority will be very much higher than anyone has predicted . Probably fair - suspect that none of us have any real idea who that will be so are all hedging somewhat... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2015 23:30:43 GMT
Funnily enough Mark was wrong in that prediction but quite close in predicting the details result (certainly for the top two)
Sandwell Blackheath: Robert Waller 11.0 Hempie 11.8 Maxque 13.6 Tonyotim 14.2 Greenhert 15.0 Arthur Figgis 16.2 Mark Senior 19.0 Just Looking 23.0 David Boothroyd 24.8 Lennon 27.8 Pete Whitehead 29.8
Thurrock - west Thurrock & South Stifford: David Boothroyd 6.0 Greenhert & Hempie 7.5 Pete Whitehead 9.5 Maxque 10.1 Arthur Figgis 14.9 Tonyotim 17.5 Robert Waller & Mark Senior 23.5 Lennon 20.0+10 Just Looking 27.5+10
Maidstone - Fant: Hempie & Mark Senior 10.7 10.7 Tonyotim 13.6 Lennon 15.3 Pete Whitehead 7.6+10 Arthur Figgis 12.8+10 Greenhert 16.4+10 Maxque 19.9+10 David Boothroyd 32.8 Robert Waller 25.2+10 Just Looking 38.4
Tunbridge Wells - Southborough North: Greenhert 12.6 Just Looking 18.6 Mark Senior 24.6 Hempie 26.6 Arthur Figgis 30.4 Robert Waller 30.6 Tonyotim 31.2 Pete Whitehead 32.4 Maxque 34.6 David Boothroyd 36.6 Lennon 38.6
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2015 23:44:48 GMT
Edinburgh Leith Walk: Maxque 5.1 Arthur Figgis 5.9 Tonyotim 10.7 Pete Whitehead 14.4 Lennon 16.2 David Boothroyd 16.9 Hempie 17.1 Greenhert 24.8 Mark Senior 25.4 Robert Waller 36.0 Just Looking 47.7
For the week
Hempie 73.7 Greenhert 86.2 Tonyotim 87.1 Arthur Figgis 90.2 Maxque 93.3 Mark Senior 103.1 Pete Whitehead 103.8 David Boothroyd 117.1 Lennon 127.9 Robert Waller 130.3 Just Looking 165.2
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 10, 2015 23:45:49 GMT
Just a reminder that we've still got Midlothian to come - counting in the morning.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 11, 2015 11:58:54 GMT
For Midlothain the scores were Arthur Figgis 12.6, Tonyotim 18.9 Robert waller 24.2, Hempie 24.3 Mark Senior 25.2 Lennon & Maxque 27.2 David Boothroyd 27.3 Greenhert 32.3 Pete Whitehead 33.8
For the week
Hempie 98.0
Arthur Figgis 102.8
Tonyotim 106.0
Greenhert 118.4
Maxque 120.5
Mark Senior 128.3
Pete Whitehead 137.6
David Boothroyd 144.4
Lennon 155.1
Robert Waller 160.5
Just Looking 199.5
And the month to date
Tonyotim 125.8
Arthur Figgis 127.2
Hempie 131.4
Maxque 140.8
Mark Senior 159.8
Pete Whitehead 162.0
Robert Waller 174.5
David Boothroyd 174.7
Lennon 175.2+30
Greenhert 211.0
Just Looking 227.0
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 11, 2015 12:22:17 GMT
Er ... Pete you had me on 130.3 for the week before Midlothian
24.2 in Midlothian
But 160.5 overall?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 11, 2015 12:25:13 GMT
I notcied i'd made an error last night on your score in Edinburgh having awarded you 30 when it should have been 36. In the edit I made 24 minutes ago I changed your Edinburgh figure but did not bother to adjust the weekly figures in that post as I had already posted the more up to date figures below
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 11, 2015 12:39:09 GMT
I have to get to Midlothian soon. It's one of the handful of constituencies (8, I think) I haven't ever been to.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 11, 2015 13:05:15 GMT
Congratulations to hempie for the week.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2015 0:28:29 GMT
For Midlothain the scores were Arthur Figgis 12.6, Tonyotim 18.9 Robert waller 24.2, Hempie 24.3 Mark Senior 25.2 Lennon & Maxque 27.2 David Boothroyd 27.3 Greenhert 32.3 Pete Whitehead 33.8 For the week Hempie 98.0 Arthur Figgis 102.8 Tonyotim 106.0 Greenhert 118.4 Maxque 120.5 Mark Senior 128.3 Pete Whitehead 137.6 David Boothroyd 144.4 Lennon 155.1 Robert Waller 160.5 Just Looking 199.5 And the month to date Tonyotim 125.8 Arthur Figgis 127.2 Hempie 131.4 Maxque 140.8 Mark Senior 159.8 Pete Whitehead 162.0 Robert Waller 174.5 David Boothroyd 174.7 Lennon 175.2+30 Greenhert 211.0 Just Looking 227.0 I agree with Pete's assessment apart the following amendments: Lennon gets 30 additional points for being around ½ hour late for the week but the month to date at 205.2 faults is correct. Tony Otim gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in Maidstone, Fant so his total for the week is 107.0 (not 106.0) and for the month to date is 126.8 (not 125.8) Objections please by 5.00 pm Tuesday. Back to normal this week. 5 by-elections this week. Predictions on the thread by 9.00 am Thursday. |
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