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Post by middleenglander on Aug 31, 2015 15:28:12 GMT
We are away for part of September so there will be some delay in posting the Official results for at least one week. The Deputy Returning Offer may post Unofficial ones.
There are 17 by-elections for 18 seats during September with a "double" election in Edinburgh, Leith Walk.
* 1 on 3rd September
* 6 for 7 seats on 10th September
* 5 on 17th September and
* 5 on 24th September.
6 of the contests are for District Councils all in wards where there were elections in May
- 3 for authorities with annual elections, 2 with four yearly elections and 1 with an all out election on new boundaries
1 in an Unitary Authority where there were elections in May
2 in Metropolitan boroughs where there were elections in May
2 in London Borough where the last elections were in 2014
2 for County Councils where the main elections were in 2013 but one where there was a by-election in May
3 for Scottish Councils last contested in 2012 and
1 for a Welsh Council also last contested in 2012.
Conservatives are defending 8 seats, 5 following the death of the former Councillor, 3 a resignation of which 2 due to ill health
Labour defends 6 seats, 3 following a death and 3 a resignation, 1 subsequently dying and 1 elected an MP
SNP defends 3 seats, all 3 resignations following election as MPs and
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation.
With all nominations published there are 87 candidates in total:
Conservatives have 17 candidates, Labour and UKIP* 15 each, Liberal Democrat 13, Green 9
Independents have 5 candidates contesting 4 seats, SNP 3, Plaid Cymru 1, TUSAC 2
whilst Health Concern, Left Unity, Libertarian, No Description, Richmondshire Independent, Socialist and Yorkshire First each have 1
* the UKIP candidate in Caerphilly has been disowned by the party and is now an Independent but still UKIP on the ballot paper.
As there is only one candidate from each party for the 2 seat Edinburgh, Leith Walk election, the prediction should be as if for a single seat contest with a prediction for each of the 10 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 2, 2015 18:20:12 GMT
Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen – Caerphilly
Ray Davies (Independent) 6%
Ron Davies (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 28
John Dew (Independent) 6
Bobby Douglas (UKIP) 6
Lisa Jones (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 48
Rita Lukins (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 6
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Post by pembspolitic on Sept 2, 2015 20:35:58 GMT
Caerphilly:
Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen
Independent (Ray Davies) - 7.0%
Plaid Cymru - 31.7%
Independent (John Dew) - 4.7%
UKIP - 9.5%
Labour - 42.1%
Conservatives - 5.0%
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Post by marksenior on Sept 2, 2015 20:55:53 GMT
Bedwas
Lab 40
Plaid 34
Ind Davies 10
Ind Dew 6
Con 6
UKIP 4
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 2, 2015 21:30:31 GMT
L 41.7
PC 31.4
Ind Davies 9.5
UKIP 7
Ind Dew 5.7
C 4.7
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2015 23:04:36 GMT
CAERPHILLY Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen: Lab 37, PC 32, Ind Dew 13, C 7, Ind Davies 6, 'UKIP' 5
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Sept 3, 2015 5:17:56 GMT
Bedwas, Trethomes and Machen, Caerphilly: Lab 49, PC 17, Ind Davies 11, Ind Dew 9, Con 7, UKIP 7
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2015 6:04:30 GMT
Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen – Caerphilly
Ray Davies (Independent) 14%
Ron Davies (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 28
John Dew (Independent) 6
Bobby Douglas (UKIP) 6
Lisa Jones (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 40
Rita Lukins (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 6
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Post by hempie on Sept 3, 2015 7:26:57 GMT
Caerphilly,Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen: Lab 39, PC 30, Ind Dew 13, Ind Davies 11, Con 4, UKIP 3
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 3, 2015 7:41:36 GMT
Lab 40.1
PC 31.1
Ind Dav 9.8
Ind Dew 7.4
UKIP 6.2
Con 5.4
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 3, 2015 7:52:29 GMT
Caerphilly: Lab 46.1 PC 26.8 Ind Davies 11.8 Ind Dew 5.7 Con 5.1 UKIP 4.5 |
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Post by lennon on Sept 3, 2015 8:29:57 GMT
Caerphilly:
Lab 49
PC 24
Ind Davies 10
Ind Dew 6
Con 5
UKIP 6
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Post by greenhert on Sept 3, 2015 16:12:45 GMT
Sorry I am so late-is it still possible for my entry to be allowed this week?
Caerphilly UA, Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen: Labour 45, Plaid Cymru 30, Independent Davies 10, Independent Dew 5, UKIP 5, Con 5.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 3, 2015 20:52:51 GMT
There are 12 entries this week with hempie returning after his sabbatical, Arthur Figgis after extended leave and Just looking who bowed out mid-way through August. Meanwhile Greenhert revisits after a maiden appearence last week whilst pembspolitic and Lennon join us for the first time, at least under their current nom de plumes.
Unfortunately Lennon gets 5 additional points for posting up to one hour late whilst Greenhert gets 70 additional points for posting between 17.00 and 18.00 hours.
Caerphilly: 100% Labour hold with Plaid Cymru as runner up - majority ranging from 5% (David Boothroyd) to 32% (Maxque), averaging at 14.4%.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 3, 2015 23:19:15 GMT
Caerphilly, Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen
Robert Waller 14.0 faults, Tony Otim 19.8, pembspolitic 20.0, Lennon 15.1+5, Maxque 20.3, Arthur Figgis & Pete Whitehead 24.4, Just Looking 27.5, David Boothroyd 30.3, Mark Senior 31.5, hempie 33.4, Greenhert 22.6+70
Objections please by noon Saturday.
6 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
It may be late Sunday or Monday before the Official results can be posted next week.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 4, 2015 10:35:17 GMT
Congrats to Robert this week.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 9, 2015 20:27:16 GMT
Leith Walk - Edinburgh
Marion Donaldson (Scottish Labour Party) 29
Mo Hussain (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 6
Tom Laird (Scottish Libertarian Party) 1
Alan Melville (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 1
Gordon Murdie (Scottish Conservative & Unionist) 8
Susan Rae (Scottish Green Party) 5
Natalie Reid (Scottish Socialist Party) 1
John Ritchie (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 46
John Scott (Independent) 2
Bruce Whitehead (Left Unity) 1
Fant – Maidstone BC –
Keith Adkinson (Labour Party) 12
Matt Boughton (The Conservative Party Candidate) 26
Mike Hogg (Independent) 14
Rosaline Janko (Liberal Democrat) 27
Stuart Jeffery (Green Party) 11
Colin Taylor (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10
Midlothian West - Midlothian
Jane Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 5
Daya Feldwick (Scottish Green Party) 2
Ian Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 28
Kelly Parry (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 52
David Tedford 2
Pauline Winchester (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 11
Blackheath – Sandwell MB – Death of Malcolm Bridges (Labour).
Shirley Ching (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33
Ben Groom (Green Party) 5
Ian Keeling (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 15
Danny Millard (Labour Party) 47
West Thurrock & South Stifford – Thurrock UA
Helen Adams (UKIP) 19
Tony Coughlin (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36
Cliff Holloway (Labour Party) 45
Southborough North – Tunbridge Wells BC
William O’Shea (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 11
Trevor Poile (Liberal Democrat) 30
Joe Simmons (The Conservative Party Candidate) 59
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Post by greenhert on Sept 9, 2015 23:07:39 GMT
My predictions for this week's by-elections are as follows:
Leith Walk, Edinburgh UA (two seats): SNP 45, Scottish Labour Party 26, Scottish Green Party 11, Scottish Conservative & Unionist 7, Scottish Liberal Democrats 6, Scottish Socialist Party 2, Independent (John Scott) 1, UKIP 1, Libertarian 0.5, Left Unity 0.5. (SNP hold and Green hold.)
Fant, Maidstone BC: Liberal Democrat 26, Conservative 25, Green 15, Labour 14, UKIP 11, Independent (Mike Hogg) 9. (Lib Dem gain from Conservative.)
Midlothian West, Midlothian UA: SNP 57, Lab 22, Con 9, Green 5, Lib Dem 4, Independent (David Tedford) 3. (SNP hold.)
Blackheath, Sandwell MB: Lab 44, Con 37, UKIP 16, Green 3. (Labour hold.)
West Thurrock & South Stifford, Thurrock UA: Lab 42, Con 30, UKIP 28. (Labour hold.)
Southborough North, Tunbridge Wells DC: Con 47, Lib Dem 33, UKIP 20. (Conservative hold.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2015 5:52:42 GMT
Leith Walk - Edinburgh
Marion Donaldson (Scottish Labour Party) 25
Mo Hussain (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 3
Tom Laird (Scottish Libertarian Party) 0
Alan Melville (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0
Gordon Murdie (Scottish Conservative & Unionist) 8
Susan Rae (Scottish Green Party) 4
Natalie Reid (Scottish Socialist Party) 0
John Ritchie (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 60
John Scott (Independent) 0
Bruce Whitehead (Left Unity) 0
Fant – Maidstone BC –
Keith Adkinson (Labour Party) 10
Matt Boughton (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Mike Hogg (Independent) 10
Rosaline Janko (Liberal Democrat) 25
Stuart Jeffery (Green Party) 5
Colin Taylor (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Midlothian West - Midlothian
Jane Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2
Daya Feldwick (Scottish Green Party) 2
Ian Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 24
Kelly Parry (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 60
David Tedford 1
Pauline Winchester (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 11
Blackheath – Sandwell MB – Death of Malcolm Bridges (Labour).
Shirley Ching (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39
Ben Groom (Green Party) 5
Ian Keeling (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 16
Danny Millard (Labour Party) 40
West Thurrock & South Stifford – Thurrock UA
Helen Adams (UKIP) 21
Tony Coughlin (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40
Cliff Holloway (Labour Party) 39
Southborough North – Tunbridge Wells BC
William O’Shea (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Trevor Poile (Liberal Democrat) 30
Joe Simmons (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Sept 10, 2015 6:26:34 GMT
Leith Walk, Edinburgh: SNP 37, Lab 24.8, Grn 21, Con 8, LD 3.5, UKIP 2, Soc 1.5, Ind 1, Libertarian 1, LU 0.2
Fant, Maidstone: LD 25, Con 20.2, Lab 19.9, UKIP 13.6, Grn 11.3, Ind 10
Midlothian West, Midlothian: SNP 55, Lab 19, Con 12.5, Grn 6.5, LD 5.5, Ind 1.5
Blackheath, Sandwell: Lab 44.6, Con 34.3, UKIP 17.7, Grn 3.4
West Thurrock & South Stifford, Thurrock: Lab 46.9, UKIP 31.9, Con 21.2
Southborough North, Tunbridge Wells: Con 61, LD 29, UKIP 10
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