Andrew_S
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May 13, 2017 14:14:12 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on May 13, 2017 14:14:12 GMT
Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-) LAB: 32% (+1) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 7% (-1) (via @orb_Int / 10 - 11 May) No sign of this LD recovery, they might actually lose seats! Or have more seats in Scotland that England! Taxi for Farron. The idea that Corbyn might increase the Labour vote seems like horse manure to me, but I'll eat humble pie on 9th June if it happens. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 15:06:07 GMT
Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-) LAB: 32% (+1) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 7% (-1) (via @orb_Int / 10 - 11 May) No sign of this LD recovery, they might actually lose seats! Or have more seats in Scotland that England! Taxi for Farron. The idea that Corbyn might increase the Labour vote seems like horse manure to me, but I'll eat humble pie on 9th June if it happens. I am not convinced it'll happen, but after 7 years of mixed economic news, austerity, the resignation of a Prime Minister after Brexit, etc, Labour should be in a position to win an Election, not just improve its vote share. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2017 16:03:23 GMT
The idea that Corbyn might increase the Labour vote seems like horse manure to me, but I'll eat humble pie on 9th June if it happens. I am not convinced it'll happen, but after 7 years of mixed economic news, austerity, the resignation of a Prime Minister after Brexit, etc, Labour should be in a position to win an Election, not just improve it's vote share. I understand and fully empathize with that thinking CL. It must seem at times as if the rules have been abolished and facts are of no importance? The Corbyn Effect has not helped Labour, but we all know that he is far from the sole reason for the present state of affairs. He exacerbates and hugely enhances trends and deep movements already long in play. There must be so many effects in play simultaneously? We are only seeing the net-out and then only when a GE is held. The long term effects of the Financial Crash and how it is perceived and who 'caused' it, coupled with the reaction to the Expenses Scandal and Prosecutions of MPs for dishonesty. Overlay the rise of the SNP, UKIP and the Greens and the various cross-currents of reasons for each trend. Then the recovery of the Conservatives and Cameroon Modernization that both gained and shed support. The Miliband Effect that changed perceptions. The Corbyn Effect and Momentum causing movement of support and effort. Then the body blow of the Labour collapse in Scotland and all that portends. Also a general feeling of flux and of impermanence among many. A concern with national and personal debt. A worry about housing and the ability ever to acquire one. We are in a period of ongoing political flux with some voters going out of play and others drawn in for the first time. All those themes are feeding into a matrix of change where parties can thrive and melt-down with worrying rapidity. The Conservatives, LDs and Labour have each witnessed it. And it seems as if this session it will be Labour and UKIP in the frame. The Conservatives prosper in Scotland as a much needed and long delayed correction from an over-kill from past periods. Yet it must seem both odd and unfair that a movement and offer that has served so long can take such a beating.....just like that. The lesson for us all is to nurture the core and keep as much of the structure live and in place for better times. And always to remember that largely at our level it is not 'our fault'! It is not ALL about leadership, policies or explaining the policies better. It is about mood and feel and trust..........The Tone of the Party and the general perception of The Offer. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 13, 2017 17:20:30 GMT
After years of the media going on about the decline of the two-party duopoly I'd be very amused if the combined Labour/Tory share hits 80%.
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Jack
Reform Party
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May 13, 2017 17:29:17 GMT
Post by Jack on May 13, 2017 17:29:17 GMT
After years of the media going on about the decline of the two-party duopoly I'd be very amused if the combined Labour/Tory share hits 80%. The arguments for electoral reform may die off slightly if it happens. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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May 14, 2017 14:01:22 GMT
Post by middyman on May 14, 2017 14:01:22 GMT
The idea that Corbyn might increase the Labour vote seems like horse manure to me, but I'll eat humble pie on 9th June if it happens. I am not convinced it'll happen, but after 7 years of mixed economic news, austerity, the resignation of a Prime Minister after Brexit, etc, Labour should be in a position to win an Election, not just improve its vote share. I fear that one word in your post may be part of the problem. Call it "austerity", "balancing the books", "living within our means" all amount to the same thing and this has been twigged. Yes, rent-a-mob will be out there bemoaning austerity but it no longer cuts any ice. Similarly Corbyn's strategy of offering other people's money, the classic Labour chant of yore, has been seen through. Tax companies and you hit profits, and so dividends, and so pension pots. Overall you do not end up better off. Labour needs a thorough re-think of how to achieve its aims, rather than just regurgitating failed ideas from the past. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 14, 2017 15:05:17 GMT
Similarly Corbyn's strategy of offering other people's money, the classic Labour chant of yore, has been seen through. This is of course completely different from the Cameron/May strategy of doing exactly the same thing because reasons etc. I understand. On the one hand I do actually agree with this (and have argued so to the point of tedium on the Party board here as others will attest) but on the other, perhaps I'm wrong? After all the Conservatives have spent the past decade regurgitating failed ideas from the past and so far it has worked out really well for them. |
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Post by thirdchill on May 14, 2017 15:18:50 GMT
On the one hand I do actually agree with this (and have argued so to the point of tedium on the Party board here as others will attest) but on the other, perhaps I'm wrong? After all the Conservatives have spent the past decade regurgitating failed ideas from the past and so far it has worked out really well for them. Actually that is a fair point, a lot of politics recently has either been about regurgitating old ideas or modifying those ideas in some way. Although some old ideas work and can be better than some 'new ideas', there is a lack of imagination and creativity when it comes to policy making. Corbyn isn't the only one guilty of this, it's a long standing issue that's probably been around for at least 25 years and possibly longer. There is very much a 'safety first' approach when it comes to policy (or, in Corbyn's case, policies that you know about and have believed in for a long time), and perhaps seeing things too much through the prism of the past when the present situation is clearly very different. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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May 14, 2017 16:09:24 GMT
Post by middyman on May 14, 2017 16:09:24 GMT
Similarly Corbyn's strategy of offering other people's money, the classic Labour chant of yore, has been seen through. This is of course completely different from the Cameron/May strategy of doing exactly the same thing because reasons etc. I understand. On the one hand I do actually agree with this (and have argued so to the point of tedium on the Party board here as others will attest) but on the other, perhaps I'm wrong? After all the Conservatives have spent the past decade regurgitating failed ideas from the past and so far it has worked out really well for them. Just looking at your first point, all parties make promises at elections. The difference comes in how they are to be paid for. Despite the fact that top earners now have a higher burden share of tax than before, Labour carp on about reversing the tax cuts on the rich, taxing companies more etc. The strategy, as far as I can see, is to appeal to greed i.e. get something for nothing. |
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May 20, 2017 13:26:03 GMT
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 20, 2017 13:26:03 GMT
Latest Poll - 17/18 May
Con 46 (-)
Lab 34 (+2)
LD 7 (-1)
UKIP 7 (+1)
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Tom
Unionist
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May 20, 2017 17:13:38 GMT
Post by Tom on May 20, 2017 17:13:38 GMT
Latest Poll - 17/18 May Con 46 (-) Lab 34 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 7 (+1) I think we can discount this poll. UKIP aren't going to get 7% and Labour aren't going to get 34%. |
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Post by ccoleman on May 20, 2017 17:15:59 GMT
Latest Poll - 17/18 May Con 46 (-) Lab 34 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 7 (+1) I think we can discount this poll. UKIP aren't going to get 7% and Labour aren't going to get 34%. Is this the 'discount things I don't like just because' methdology?  |
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Tom
Unionist
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May 20, 2017 17:18:29 GMT
Post by Tom on May 20, 2017 17:18:29 GMT
I think we can discount this poll. UKIP aren't going to get 7% and Labour aren't going to get 34%. Is this the 'discount things I don't like just because' methdology? Well for a start UKIP have almost halved their number of candidates, something the poll hasn't taken account of. Secondly Labour just aren't going to get 34%. If they do I will resign from this forum and never post again. |
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May 20, 2017 17:48:13 GMT
Tom likes this
Post by akmd on May 20, 2017 17:48:13 GMT
I'm very much looking forward to you honouring that pledge.
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May 20, 2017 18:00:21 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 20, 2017 18:00:21 GMT
Is this the 'discount things I don't like just because' methdology? Well for a start UKIP have almost halved their number of candidates, something the poll hasn't taken account of. Secondly Labour just aren't going to get 34%. If they do I will resign from this forum and never post again. Coward's way out, Tom. The penalty for making rash statements should be to have to keep posting for at least 12 months in the knowledge that everyone will drag up your old predictions. FWIW your first point is, I believe, statement of fact but on the second, I'm not so sure. It is possible that combined antics of Labour over the last 2 years had already put their vote share on the floor and therefore "things can only get better" (as, no doubt, Jeremy sings to himself in moments of nostalgia for the heady days of New Labour.) |
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May 20, 2017 18:02:17 GMT
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Post by wickofthesouth on May 20, 2017 18:02:17 GMT
Actually 34% is within the bounds of possibility. That isn't to say it WILL happen and it certainly doesn't mean Labour are going to win. But all the evidence suggests that the increase in Tory vote is coming mainly from ex-kippers. Labour may not be picking up more votes than 2015 but neither are they losing very many. It could all just be a matter of differential turnout.
It is also quite likely Labour could put on several percentage points yet lose 50 seats...
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Post by thirdchill on May 20, 2017 18:04:45 GMT
It is also quite likely Labour could put on several percentage points yet lose 50 seats... Don't know about those figures, but I get your point and it is a fair one. Labour's vote is likely to be once again poorly distributed, and probably more so this time than 2015. A reversal of 2005, where labour's vote was really well distributed, and the conservatives piled on votes in safe seats and made little headway in quite a number of marginals. |
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May 20, 2017 18:11:32 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on May 20, 2017 18:11:32 GMT
Latest Poll - 17/18 May Con 46 (-) Lab 34 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 7 (+1) This is another pre-manifesto poll. It's interesting, as it lets us know where the battle lines were just before the Conservative announcement, but I suspect things will have changed at least a bit since then. |
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May 20, 2017 18:11:39 GMT
Tom likes this
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 20, 2017 18:11:39 GMT
Well it can''t be dismissed as an outlier as the MORI poll had them on 34% and Yougov on 32% so there is something there that is being reflected in the polls. As I've said before it's a good thing if Labour can be painted as an actual threat which they can't be when they're 20 points behind in the polls. Then the attack dogs can really go to town on Corbyn and the rest of his team. This should see them safely consigned back below 30% when the actual votes are counted
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May 20, 2017 21:36:10 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2017 21:36:10 GMT
Is this the 'discount things I don't like just because' methdology? Well for a start UKIP have almost halved their number of candidates, something the poll hasn't taken account of. Secondly Labour just aren't going to get 34%. If they do I will resign from this forum and never post again. Brave words young Tom. Never make that sort of promise in politics or life in general. Labour are counter-attacking with some skill and 34% is far from impossible. |
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