ORB

[Deleted]

Orb Polling, don't think we have a post for them.

anyways they did a poll for the Indy, on how electable Labour is

link to data on the orb site

One of my favourite tit bits from it. didn't think it could get any worse for Labour in Scotland

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It's a truly useless finding - of course Labour is less electable now than it was when it had a leader.

[Deleted]

Jul 28, 2015 22:07:56 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It's a truly useless finding - of course Labour is less electable now than it was when it had a leader.

I am guessing the comparison would be peoples assumption of the LibDems or or the Conservatives after the budget announcement.

But still Labour are not helping themselves.

[manchesterman]

Fail to see how they can be "less electable" now as they only managed 1 MP in Scotland in May (I suppose zero MPs is the only answer to that)

[Deleted]

I am less young than I was 10 weeks ago, that is truly sad. Scottish Labour can become more electable, I can't become younger.

[greenchristian]

Jul 29, 2015 8:22:31 GMT CatholicLeft said:

I am less young than I was 10 weeks ago, that is truly sad. Scottish Labour can become more electable, I can't become younger.

[Deleted]

First ever VI poll from this organisation apparently:

[marksenior]

Some ludicrous sub samples given in the Telegraph write up

NI apparently Con 6 Lab 8

[marksenior]

Apparently there was an Orb poll last week too

Con 44
Lab 29
LD 8
UKIP 10

[Tom]

No way are Labour polling at 2015 levels. This poll is nonsense.

[justin124]

Apr 29, 2017 20:47:54 GMT Tom said:

No way are Labour polling at 2015 levels. This poll is nonsense.

Maybe so - though Opinium also has Labour on 30%.

[marksenior]

Apr 29, 2017 20:47:54 GMT Tom said:

No way are Labour polling at 2015 levels. This poll is nonsense.

Not seen the full figures but hearing Yougov have Con lead down to 13% a fall of 10% in the last week .

[finsobruce]

Apr 29, 2017 20:33:20 GMT marksenior said:

Apparently there was an Orb poll last week too

Con 44
Lab 29
LD 8
UKIP 10

[Deleted]

Have you seen this poll? Even somebody as depressed about Labour's chances a I am think the regional breakdowns are rubbish: Conservatives way ahead in London and on 56% in Wales? No availability for size of the poll or when it was conducted:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

[marksenior]

Apr 30, 2017 6:58:19 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Have you seen this poll? Even somebody as depressed about Labour's chances a I am think the regional breakdowns are rubbish: Conservatives way ahead in London and on 56% in Wales? No availability for size of the poll or when it was conducted:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

These are just sub samples and are subject to their usual large MofE .
The data tables are of interest as ORB are the only pollster to include NI in their sample so their polls are not quite comparable to other pollsters ,
With respect to how people voted in 2015

Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP and SNP but gain 1 each from them
UKIP lose 91 voters to Conservative and 19 to Labour gaining 6 and 10 respectively

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2017 7:40:33 GMT marksenior said:

Apr 30, 2017 6:58:19 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Have you seen this poll? Even somebody as depressed about Labour's chances a I am think the regional breakdowns are rubbish: Conservatives way ahead in London and on 56% in Wales? No availability for size of the poll or when it was conducted:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

These are just sub samples and are subject to their usual large MofE .
The data tables are of interest as ORB are the only pollster to include NI in their sample so their polls are not quite comparable to other pollsters ,
With respect to how people voted in 2015

Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP and SNP but gain 1 each from them
UKIP lose 91 voters to Conservative and 19 to Labour gaining 6 and 10 respectively

I am surprised that the pollster doesn't stipulate that the sub-samples aren't used for headlines,as they give a massively false impression.
As you say, interesting to see the vote movements but again subject to people's memories. As ever, an inexact science, but always fascinating.

[Deleted]

[The Bishop]

Tories up 4, other main parties down 1 between them - how does that work?

[Vibe]

May 10, 2017 10:01:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Tories up 4, other main parties down 1 between them - how does that work?

It does look wrong, however, roundings could explain a lot of it as well as falls in Greens, others, PC, SNP.

[Vibe]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 7% (-1)

(via @orb_Int / 10 - 11 May)

No sign of this LD recovery, they might actually lose seats! Or have more seats in Scotland that England! Taxi for Farron.