Prediction Competition for July 2015

[middleenglander]

I am prepared to run a competition during July but believe we need a few more competitors.

It looks like 28 by-elections in July:
* 2 on July 2nd
* 8 on July 9th
* 8 on July 16th
* 5 on July 23rd
* 5 on July 30th

8 of the contests are in District Councils,
- 5 where there were elections in May (including 3 where former Councillor was only elected in May) and 3 where the last elections were in 2014
3 in Unitary Authorities,
- 2 where there elections in May (including 1 where former Counciillor was only elected in May) and 1 where last elections were in 2014
1 in a Metropolitain Borough where the last election was in May
4 in London Boroughs where the previous elections were in 2014
5 in County Councils where the previous elections were in 2013
4 in Welsh Councils were the previous elections were in 2008
3 in Scottish Councils where the previous elections were in 2007

Conservatives are defending 7 seats, 1 following the death of former councillor, 3 resignations as now a MP and 3 other resignations
Labour is defending 12 seats, 6 following a death, 2 resignations as now a MP and 4 other resignations
Liberal Democrats are defending 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a resignation
UKIP is defending 2 seats, 1 following a disqualification and 1 a resignation
SNP is defending 3 seats, 2 resignations as a MP and 1 other resignation
Plaid Cymru is defending 1 seat folowing a resignation as now a MP
Lincolnshire Independents are defending 1 seat following a resignation.

With nominations now known for all 28 contests:
Conservatives have 27 candidates, Labour 25, UKIP 23, Liberal Democrats 19, Green 16 with SNP 3 and Plaid Cymru 1
- there are 5 Independents and 1 each Hykeham Independent, Lincolnshire Independent, Llais Gwynedd, Christian, Socialist, TUSAC and No Description
- a total of 126 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[Robert Waller]

Yes, do come in, the water's lovely in this heat!

[Robert Waller]

Lincolnshire Grantham
C 38 Ind 30 Lab 22 UKIP 10

Richmond Hampton Wick
C 57 LD 18 G 9 Lab 9 ukip 5 Ind 2

[marksenior]

Grantham Linc Ind 34 Con 27 Lab 22 UKIP 17
Richmond Con 49 LD 23 Lab 13 Green 8 UKIP 5 Ind 2

[maxque]

Grantham Barrowby, Lincolnshire: Lincs Ind 32, Con 31, Lab 24, UKIP 13
Hampton Wick, Richmond upon Thames: Con 46, Grn 21, LD 14, Lab 12, UKIP 5, Ind 2

[Davıd Boothroyd]

LINCOLNSHIRE Grantham Barrowby: C 44, Lab 24, Lincs Ind 22, UKIP 10
RICHMOND UPON THAMES Hampton Wick: C 45, L Dem 20, Lab 19, GP 6, Ind 5, UKIP 5

[hempie]

Lincolnshire, Grantham: Con 33, Lincs Ind 27, Lab 23, UKIP 17

Richmond upon Thames, Hampton Wick: Con 43, LD 20, Green 18, Lab 10, UKIP 6, Ind 3

[Tony Otim]

Jun 30, 2015 14:59:53 GMT Tony Otim said:

Lincolnshire:
Con 35.4
Lincs Ind 25.8
UKIP 21.9
Lab 16.9


Richmond Upon Thames
Con 45.5
LD 15.9
Grn 13.4
Lab 12.8
UKIP 10.1
Ind 2.7

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 1, 2015 20:02:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Richmond LBC - Hampton Wick

Con  45.1%
LD    24.3%
Grn  12.6%
Lab  11.2%
UKIP  4.5%
Ind    2.3%

Lincolnshire CC - Grantham Barrowby

Con   40.1%
Lab   26.2%
Ind    21.5%
UKIP 12.2%

[middleenglander]

There are 7 entries this week with Tony Otim re-joining the fray but still no PhilDav. Tony Otim gets 0.4 additional faults for adding to 100.4% in Richmond.

Lincolnshire: 5 Conservative holds with Maxque and Mark Senior a Lincolnshire Independent gain
Richmond-upon-Thames: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 20.8% (Pete Whitehead) to 39% (Robert Waller).

[middleenglander]

Lincolnshire, Grantham Barrowby
David Boothroyd 21.6 faults, Pete Whitehead 25.0, hempie 33.0, Robert Waller 33.6, Tony Otim 38.3, Maxque 41.6+10, Mark Senior 45.0+10

Richmond upon Thames, Hampton Wick
Pete Whitehead 37.3+10 faults, Mark Senior 41.0+10, hempie 45.9+10, Robert Waller 49.9+10, David Boothroyd 51.0+10, Tony Otim 54.5+0.4+10, Maxque 57.9+10

and for the week

72.3 Pete Whitehead
82.6 David Boothroyd

88.9 hempie
93.5 Robert Waller

103.2 Tony Otim
106.0 Mark Senior
119.5 Maxque

Objection please by 5.00 pm Satyrday

8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 on Thursday

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Pete for the week.

Not quite the triumphant return I was hoping for

[Robert Waller]

Old Hastings & Tressell - East Sussex CC

Tania Charman (Labour Party) 56%
Robert Cooke (The Conservative Party Candidate) 22
Andrea Needham (Green Party) 11
Sebastian Norton (UKIP) 9
Stewart Rayment (Liberal Democrat) 2

Central St Leonards - Hastings BC
Alan Dixon (Green Party) 8
Terry Dowling (Labour Party) 55
Clive Gross (Independent) 6
Kevin Hill (UKIP) 13
John Rankin (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16
Susan Tait (Liberal Democrat) 2

St Helens - Hastings BC
Martin Clarke (The Conservative Party Candidate) 41
Graham Crane (Labour Party) 39
Kenneth Pankhurst (UKIP) 12
Christopher Petts (Green Party) 6
Gary Spencer-Holmes (Liberal Democrat) 2

Morfa Nefyn - Gwynedd

Sian Hugues (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 70
Wini Jones Lewis (Llais Gwynedd - The Voice of Gwynedd) 30

Brentford - Hounslow LBC

Patrick Barr (Conservative Party Candidate) 19
Joe Bourke (Liberal Democrats) 2
Guy Lambert (Labour Party) 69
George Radulski (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Diane Scott (Green Party) 5

Spring Hill - Hyndburn BC

Diane Fielding (Labour Party) 49
Kerry Gormley (Green Party) 5
Mohammad Safdar (Conservative Party Candidate) 34
Ken Smith (UK Independence Party) 12

Thorniewood - North Lanarkshire -

Steven Bonnar (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 52
Hugh Gaffney (Scottish Labour Party) 31
Meghan Gallacher (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 5
Patrick McAleer (Scottish Green Party) 3
Liam McCabe (Scottish Socialist Party) 3
Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship”) 3
Matt Williams (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 3

Newton - Sandwell MBC

Murray Abbott (Green Party) 3
Keith Allcock (Labour Party) 52
Steve Latham (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 14
Tony Ward (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST SUSSEX Old Hastings and Tressell: Lab 53, C 25, UKIP 12, GP 6, L Dem 4
GWYNEDD Morfa Nefyn: PC 81, LG 19
HASTINGS Central St Leonards: Lab 54, C 20, UKIP 11, GP 6, Ind 6, L Dem 3
HASTINGS St Helens: C 44, Lab 40, UKIP 10, GP 3, L Dem 3
HOUNSLOW Brentford: Lab 55, C 24, GP 8, L Dem 7, UKIP 6
HYNDBURN Spring Hill: Lab 47, C 34, UKIP 10, GP 9
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Thorniewood: SNP 49, Lab 40, C 6, SGP 3, SSP 1, UKIP 1, SCP 0
SANDWELL Newton: Lab 48, C 31, UKIP 18, GP 3

[marksenior]

East Sussex CC O H and T Lab 54 Con 22 UKIP 14 Green 5 LD 5
Gwynedd Plaid 78 LG 22
Hastings C S L Lab 56 Con 20 UKIP 10 Ind 5 LD 5 Green 4
Hastings St H Lab 38 Con 34 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 5
Hounslow B Lab 60 Con 18 LD 10 Green 6 UKIP 6
Hyndburn S H Lab 46 Con 35 UKIP 12 Green 7
N Lanarks T Lab 42 SNP 39 Con 9 Green 6 UKIP 2 SSP 1 SCP 1
Sandwell N Lab 55 Con 30 UKIP 10 Green 5

[hempie]

East Sussex, Old Hastings and Tressell: Lab 54,Con 27, UKIP 11, Green 4, LD 4
Hastings, Central St Leonards: Lab 55, Con 22, UKIP 10, Green 5, Ind 4, LD 4
Hastings, St Helens: Con 43, Lab 39, UKIP 10, Green 4, LD 4
Hounslow, Brentford: Lab 55, Con 24, Green 9, LD 7, UKIP 5
Hyndburn, Spring Hill: Lab 44, Con 36, UKIP 12, Green 8
North Lanarkshire, Thorniewood: SNP 46, Lab 39, Con 5, SGP 3, SSP 3, UKIP 3, SCP 1
Sandwell, Newton: Lab 47, C 32, UKIP 18, Green 3
Gwynedd, Morfa Nefyn: PC 77, LG 23

[Pete Whitehead]

Almost forgot

Hounslow LB - Brentford

Lab   59.7%
Con  21.3%
Grn    7.0%
LD      6.5%
UKIP  5.5%


Sandwell MB - Newton

Lab   50.5%
Con  31.0%
UKIP 15.0%
LD       3.5%



East Sussex CC - Old Hastings & Tressell

Lab    54.2%
Con   24.0%
UKIP 11.5%
Grn    6.5%
LD      3.8%


Hastings BC - Central ST Leonards

Lab   54.9%
Con  19.5%
UKIP 11.0%
LD      5.8%
Grn    5.3%
Ind     3.5%

Hastings BC - St Helens

Con    40.5%
Lab    38.9%
UKIP 11.8%
Grn     4.5%
LD       4.3%

Hyndburn BC - Spring Hill

Lab   46.5%
Con  34.8%
UKIP 11.5%
Grn     7.2%


North Lanarkshire - Thorniewood

SNP 47.5%
Lab  37.2%
Con   6.2%
Grn   3.7%
UKIP 2.1%
SSP   2.0%
SCP   1.3%


Gwynedd CC - Morfa Nefyn

PC  76.5%
LG  23.5%

[maxque]

Old Hastings and Tressell, East Sussex: Lab 44, Con 24, UKIP 19, Grn 9, LD 4
Morfa Nelyn, Gwynedd: PC 79, LG 21
Central St Leonards, Hastings: Lab 50, Con 21, Grn 10, Ind 8, UKIP 8, LD 3
St Helens, Hastings: Lab 38, Con 36, UKIP 16, Grn 6, LD 4
Brentford, Hounslow: Lab 47, Con 22, Grn 13, LD 9, UKIP 9
Spring Hill, Hyndburn: Lab 47, Con 40, UKIP 11, Grn 2
Thorniewood, North Lanarkshire: Lab 51, SNP 37, Con 5, SSP 2, Grn 2, UKIP 2, SCP 1
Newton, Sandwell: Lab 46, Con 32, UKIP 18, Grn 4

[Tony Otim]

East Sussex:
Lab 52.2
Con 21.3
UKIP 15.2
LD 7.1
Grn 4.2


Hastings - Central St Leonards
Lab 55.7
Con 16.1
UKIP 13.2
LD 6.1
Ind 5.1
Grn 3.8


Hastings - St Leonards
Con 37.6
Lab 36.7
UKIP 17.4
LD 5.1
Grn 3.2


Gwynedd:
PC 82.1
LG 17.9


Hounslow:
Lab 53.5
Con 16.2
UKIP 13.8
Grn 9.3
LD 7.2


Hyndburn:
Lab 45.1
Con 36.3
UKIP 14.4
Grn 4.2


North Lanarkshire:
SNP 42.2
Lab 40.8
Con 5.7
Grn 3.5
UKIP 3.2
SSP 2.8
SCP 1.8


Sandwell
Lab 48.9
Con 26.9
UKIP 20.6
Grn 3.6

[middleenglander]

7 entries this week with all present and correct; Tony Otim sent his predictions by private message at 9.30 pm yesterday evening.

East Sussex: 100% Labour hold - majority ranges from 20% (Maxque) to 34% (Robert Waller)
Gwynedd: 100% Plaid Cymru hold in straight fight - share ranges from 70% (Robert Waller) to 82.1% (Tony Otim)
Hastings, Central St Leonard: 100% Labour hold - majority ranges from 29% (Maxque) to 39.6% (Tony Otim)
Hastings, St Helens: 5 Conservative hold with Mark Senior & Maxque a Labour gain
Hounslow: 100% Labour hold - majority ranges from 25% (Maxque) to 50% (Robert Waller)
Hyndburn: 100% Labour hold - majority ranges from 7% (Maxque) to 15% (Robert Waller)
North Lanarkshire: 5 SNP top on first preferences, Mark Senior & Maxque Labour top
Sandwell: 100% Labour hold - majority ranges from 14% (Maxque) to 25% (Mark Senior)