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Jul 11, 2019 15:20:52 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jul 11, 2019 15:20:52 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points.
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Jul 11, 2019 15:38:03 GMT
Post by woollyliberal on Jul 11, 2019 15:38:03 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points. This and other polls suggest that for every 2 you win back from TBP, you lose one to the Lib Dems. A net gain for your lot, of course, but it is a net shift to the right at both ends.
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Jul 11, 2019 15:46:26 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jul 11, 2019 15:46:26 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points. This and other polls suggest that for every 2 you win back from TBP, you lose one to the Lib Dems. A net gain for your lot, of course, but it is a net shift to the right at both ends. But, just as those BP points were very soft (I was one myself briefly) so are some going to LD. A proportion will drift back when faced with the enormity of a Corbyn GE win! Anyway, I can live with these net gains and parity with Labour, and the sniff of being back the right side of 32. At that and with a 3-margin over Labour at the entry to a GE and I think we can win it.
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Vibe
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Jul 11, 2019 17:03:35 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 11, 2019 17:03:35 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points. So basically you are expecting to win a nice majority in the HoP if Brexit happens.
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Jul 11, 2019 17:19:13 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Jul 11, 2019 17:19:13 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points. Even if Brexit proves to be a disaster?
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Jul 11, 2019 17:54:39 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Jul 11, 2019 17:54:39 GMT
The main parties have tended to receive polling boosts during Leadership Election campaigns , and I suspect the Tories are benefiting a bit from that at the moment. The welcome fall in Brexit Party vote share will slso be helping them . There is ,however, a big combined LibDem and Green vote there for Labour to squeeze in an election campaign - and I would expect that to happen again - as in 2017. On the whole it is also the case that election campaigns do favour the main Opposition party.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 11, 2019 19:02:41 GMT
Can't place too much faith in these but the underlying trend of drift back from BP to my party is a real comfort when the leadership campaign must e said to have had its problematic side! When the announcement is made of the Johnson win I expect another point or two. Then it will be down to the actual Brexit departure, and that will be worth at least another 5-8 points. Even if Brexit proves to be a disaster? Oh, if Brexit proves a disaster it will all be the EU's fault, of course, and a sign that we were right to leave in the first place.
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Post by torremark on Jul 11, 2019 19:05:47 GMT
Even if Brexit proves to be a disaster? Oh, if Brexit proves a disaster it will all be the EU's fault, of course, and a sign that we were right to leave in the first place. Of course who else’s fault could it have been, we’re British and we know what we want and by god we’re going to get it.
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Vibe
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Jul 11, 2019 20:24:10 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 11, 2019 20:24:10 GMT
Even if Brexit proves to be a disaster? Oh, if Brexit proves a disaster it will all be the EU's fault, of course, and a sign that we were right to leave in the first place. Jeez, aren't we all so positive! We are leaving and all need to be positive and work together to make the best of the sit
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Jul 12, 2019 17:17:05 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Jul 12, 2019 17:17:05 GMT
What a typical Tory attitude! Do as we say and all will be well in the best of all worlds. (Except of course the one we are actually in).
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 12, 2019 20:02:45 GMT
Oh, if Brexit proves a disaster it will all be the EU's fault, of course, and a sign that we were right to leave in the first place. Jeez, aren't we all so positive! We are leaving and all need to be positive and work together to make the best of the sit Where has this bullshit "we need to be positive" come from one wonders. I am positive about winning Euro millions but sadly I am still stuck having to work for a living.
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middyman
Conservative
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Jul 12, 2019 21:03:50 GMT
Post by middyman on Jul 12, 2019 21:03:50 GMT
Jeez, aren't we all so positive! We are leaving and all need to be positive and work together to make the best of the sit Where has this bullshit "we need to be positive" come from one wonders. I am positive about winning Euro millions but sadly I am still stuck having to work for a living. I think it comes as a reaction to all the defeatism, scare stories and “Project Fear” which has been a feature of Remain thinking.
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Vibe
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Jul 12, 2019 21:32:47 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 12, 2019 21:32:47 GMT
Jeez, aren't we all so positive! We are leaving and all need to be positive and work together to make the best of the sit Where has this bullshit "we need to be positive" come from one wonders. I am positive about winning Euro millions but sadly I am still stuck having to work for a living. The alternative is talking the economy into a recession. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Re the euro millions, grammatically you are optimistic about winning not positive. You can't influence the outcome with your thinking. Then again if you ask me to be positive about Boris or Corby as PM!!! I will find that hard.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 13, 2019 9:20:01 GMT
"Project Fear" actually = experts doing forecasts to the best of their generally very high ability. False optimism does nobody any good, not even the false optimists. The accuracy of the predictions in Project Fear - immediate recession, loss of half a million jobs, emergency budget, etc., just on a leave vote, not on actual leaving - gives rise to doubt as to the justification for their “expert” status.
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Vibe
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Jul 13, 2019 10:16:47 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 13, 2019 10:16:47 GMT
"Project Fear" actually = experts doing forecasts to the best of their generally very high ability. False optimism does nobody any good, not even the false optimists. False negativity isn't helpful! Being positive actually works. Being negative will lead to failure. You are clearly a negative person and a failure.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2019 11:02:24 GMT
"Project Fear" actually = experts doing forecasts to the best of their generally very high ability. False optimism does nobody any good, not even the false optimists. The accuracy of the predictions in Project Fear - immediate recession, loss of half a million jobs, emergency budget, etc., just on a leave vote, not on actual leaving - gives rise to doubt as to the justification for their “expert” status. I'd accept your narrow point. The referendum campaign was frankly abysmal on both sides. I think there's a widely accepted view among both experts and those with at least some knowledge that leaving will have at least a short to medium term negative economic effect. However the ridiculous claims made during the campaign mean that gaining a wider acceptance of even that is hard.
On the other side we had suggestions that most of the population of Turkey would decamp here, that leaving the EU would resolve the funding problems of the NHS etc etc.
It was a miserable period in our democracy (and that's nothing to do with the outcome).
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middyman
Conservative
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Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 13, 2019 11:35:37 GMT
The accuracy of the predictions in Project Fear - immediate recession, loss of half a million jobs, emergency budget, etc., just on a leave vote, not on actual leaving - gives rise to doubt as to the justification for their “expert” status. I'd accept your narrow point. The referendum campaign was frankly abysmal on both sides. I think there's a widely accepted view among both experts and those with at least some knowledge that leaving will have at least a short to medium term negative economic effect. However the ridiculous claims made during the campaign mean that gaining a wider acceptance of even that is hard.
On the other side we had suggestions that most of the population of Turkey would decamp here, that leaving the EU would resolve the funding problems of the NHS etc etc.
It was a miserable period in our democracy (and that's nothing to do with the outcome).
I do not dissent from the tenor of your post at all. Matters, unfortunately, have not improved since. The majority either disbelieved “Project Fear” or considered that there were issues which were more important than economics. I think that the latter is more likely to be the case. I then am angered by politicians who say that people did not vote to become poorer; actually they voted fully aware that that was a risk.
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Jul 13, 2019 12:06:16 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2019 12:06:16 GMT
I'd accept your narrow point. The referendum campaign was frankly abysmal on both sides. I think there's a widely accepted view among both experts and those with at least some knowledge that leaving will have at least a short to medium term negative economic effect. However the ridiculous claims made during the campaign mean that gaining a wider acceptance of even that is hard.
On the other side we had suggestions that most of the population of Turkey would decamp here, that leaving the EU would resolve the funding problems of the NHS etc etc.
It was a miserable period in our democracy (and that's nothing to do with the outcome).
I do not dissent from the tenor of your post at all. Matters, unfortunately, have not improved since. The majority either disbelieved “Project Fear” or considered that there were issues which were more important than economics. I think that the latter is more likely to be the case. I then am angered by politicians who say that people did not vote to become poorer; actually they voted fully aware that that was a risk.Yes, I'd never claim that. However it is hard to unpack why people voted as they did. As I have found, through a long political life, people find all sorts of reasons for voting as they do! My partner's neighbour told her he voted Leave to "show them" - an anti-elitist vote I suppose. He believes in chemtrails... I'm sure that there were plenty of odd reasons for voting Remain. Motivations do not always touch on the "higher things ".
Anyway, what is inarguable is that the Leave campaign talked of various models of Leave. With the impasse we have I think it's not unreasonable to ask people whether they accept whatever the eventual proposal is. More arguable is whether or which wider options are given.
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middyman
Conservative
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Jul 13, 2019 12:15:58 GMT
Post by middyman on Jul 13, 2019 12:15:58 GMT
I do not dissent from the tenor of your post at all. Matters, unfortunately, have not improved since. The majority either disbelieved “Project Fear” or considered that there were issues which were more important than economics. I think that the latter is more likely to be the case. I then am angered by politicians who say that people did not vote to become poorer; actually they voted fully aware that that was a risk.Yes, I'd never claim that. However it is hard to unpack why people voted as they did. As I have found, through a long political life, people find all sorts of reasons for voting as they do! My partner's neighbour told her he voted Leave to "show them" - an anti-elitist vote I suppose. He believes in chemtrails... I'm sure that there were plenty of odd reasons for voting Remain. Motivations do not always touch on the "higher things ".
Anyway, what is inarguable is that the Leave campaign talked of various models of Leave. With the impasse we have I think it's not unreasonable to ask people whether they accept whatever the eventual proposal is. More arguable is whether or which wider options are given.
I was with you until the last paragraph. I reckon we would need a referendum on which questions were to be asked.
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Jul 13, 2019 12:57:11 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 13, 2019 12:57:11 GMT
I'd accept your narrow point. The referendum campaign was frankly abysmal on both sides. I think there's a widely accepted view among both experts and those with at least some knowledge that leaving will have at least a short to medium term negative economic effect. However the ridiculous claims made during the campaign mean that gaining a wider acceptance of even that is hard.
On the other side we had suggestions that most of the population of Turkey would decamp here, that leaving the EU would resolve the funding problems of the NHS etc etc.
It was a miserable period in our democracy (and that's nothing to do with the outcome).
I do not dissent from the tenor of your post at all. Matters, unfortunately, have not improved since. The majority either disbelieved “Project Fear” or considered that there were issues which were more important than economics. I think that the latter is more likely to be the case. I then am angered by politicians who say that people did not vote to become poorer; actually they voted fully aware that that was a risk. I agree with the thrust of this exchange, but it also illustrates why Vibe's call for unity and optimism is way too late. The vote wasn't decided on whether or not the outcome would make us better off, but on more fundamental issues on which people are essentially (sic) divided because they go to fundamental values. Ergo the resulting project is, like Thatcherism, inherently divisive - it may succeed or fail, but it won't and can't unite the country; the best that can happen is that the conflict be eventually forgotten.
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