BMG

[greenchristian]

May 15, 2019 3:51:45 GMT clyde1998 said:

May 14, 2019 19:23:07 GMT justin124 said:

The BP has 26% in this poll , but given the hype anything below 25% would not be a good result for Farage.

This. Realistically, anything worse than UKIP's performance in 2014 would be an awful result for Farage - particularly with the Conservatives doing as badly as they are - and I think anything below 30% would not be a good result for them. If Brexit+UKIP are beaten in vote terms by the Lib Dems+Greens+Nats+CUKs, a serious possibility, then that would, IMO, be the worst (realistic) result for Farage.

Whilst I agree, I have a feeling that the media will portray it as a Brexit Party success, even if he sees a substantial drop from 2014 UKIP.

[woollyliberal]

Farage having either the most votes or the most MEPs is his victory. Percentages are meaningless. Anything he can spin as "winning".

[mboy]

Agreed. To be fair, we would do exactly the same if we got most votes (or seats). That’s what most people call “winning”.

[justin124]

It would not be 'winning',though, in the sense of having a mandate for Leave, if circa 70% have voted for non-Leave parties.

[Deleted]

The Brexit Party failing to beat UKIP circa 2014 but still a success given the short time span and lack of feet on the ground. It needs to beat UKIP circa 2014 to prove it has legs post euros. Tbf though all this Lib Dems winning the euros does increase their expectations too

[Toylyyev]

May 14, 2019 18:32:18 GMT woollyliberal said:

ElectionMapsUK
European Election Voting Intention:

BXP: 26% (+26)
LAB: 22% (-3)
LDM: 19% (+12)
CON: 12% (-12)
GRN: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 3% (-24)

Via @bmgresearch, 7-10 May.
Changes w/ 2014.

BMG have published the tables:

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-european-parliament-and-westminster-voting-intention-results-may-2019/
www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/CONFIDENTIAL_BMG-Research_VI_150519.xlsx

And there is a GE poll in there:

  LAB: 30% (-4)
  CON: 27% (-7)
  LDM: 18% (+7)
  BXP: 10%
  GRN:  6% (+1)
  CUK:  3%
 UKIP:  3% (-3)
  SNP:  2% (-2)
   PC:  0% (-1)
Other:  1% (-2)

Edit: Methodology note:

When polling this question, The Brexit Party and Change UK have been treated in the same way as UKIP and The Green Party. When respondents are shown the voting intention question, they are presented with the following options: Conservative Party, Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, SNP (if Scottish), Plaid Cymru (if Welsh), Other, Prefer not to say. If respondents select “Other party”, they are then shown a follow-up question asking if the party they would vote for is any of the following: UKIP, The Green Party, ChangeUK, The Brexit Party.

[Andrew_S]

"Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (-1)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDM: 18% (+10)
BXP: 10% (+4)
GRN: 6% (+2)
UKIP: 3% (-4)
CHUK: 3% (-5)

Via @bmgresearch, 7-10 May.
Changes w/ 2-5 Apr."

[mboy]

That'll do nicely

[curiousliberal]

[Khunanup]

May 16, 2019 22:58:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (-1)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDM: 18% (+10)
BXP: 10% (+4)
GRN: 6% (+2)
UKIP: 3% (-4)
CHUK: 3% (-5)

Via @bmgresearch, 7-10 May.
Changes w/ 2-5 Apr."

News headlines tomorrow of course: Lib Dems highest since 2010, Tories below 1997, Labour flatlining while Brexit lagging behind UKIP Westminster poll ratings leading into 2014 Euros.

Shurely eh?...

[curiousliberal]

May 16, 2019 23:14:04 GMT Khunanup said:

May 16, 2019 22:58:51 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (-1)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDM: 18% (+10)
BXP: 10% (+4)
GRN: 6% (+2)
UKIP: 3% (-4)
CHUK: 3% (-5)

Via @bmgresearch, 7-10 May.
Changes w/ 2-5 Apr."

News headlines tomorrow of course: Lib Dems highest since 2010, Tories below 1997, Labour flatlining while Brexit lagging behind UKIP Westminster poll ratings leading into 2014 Euros.

Shurely eh?...

Electoral Calculus is mean and tries to kill some of the hype.

Also, no matter what prediction I put in, it seems determined to predict Jamie Stone's downfall.

[Jack]

Blimey, it's like Cleggmania up in here!

[Khunanup]

May 16, 2019 23:17:38 GMT curiousliberal said:

May 16, 2019 23:14:04 GMT Khunanup said:

News headlines tomorrow of course: Lib Dems highest since 2010, Tories below 1997, Labour flatlining while Brexit lagging behind UKIP Westminster poll ratings leading into 2014 Euros.

Shurely eh?...

Electoral Calculus is mean and tries to kill some of the hype.

Also, no matter what prediction I put in, it seems determined to predict Jamie Stone's downfall.

Never, ever take EC too seriously. It has been this way for the best part of 15 years, just treat it as a bit of fun...

[yellowperil]

May 16, 2019 23:57:54 GMT Khunanup said:

May 16, 2019 23:17:38 GMT curiousliberal said:

Electoral Calculus is mean and tries to kill some of the hype.

Also, no matter what prediction I put in, it seems determined to predict Jamie Stone's downfall.

Never, ever take EC too seriously. It has been this way for the best part of 15 years, just treat it as a bit of fun...

Ok, just as a bit of fun..... what would be the outcome in terms of government if the EC prediction proved to be spot on ....Lab minority government with LD   confidence and supply sounds the most likely but that still  wouldn't quite have an overall majority?

[yellowperil]

May 16, 2019 23:48:40 GMT Jack said:

Blimey, it's like Cleggmania up in here!

Cablemania?

[jamie]

May 16, 2019 23:17:38 GMT curiousliberal said:

Electoral Calculus is mean and tries to kill some of the hype.

Also, no matter what prediction I put in, it seems determined to predict Jamie Stone's downfall.

Their standard predicted result for Caithness is the Lib Dem vote almost halving. Clearly a flawed model. 

[Deleted]

[middyman]

May 22, 2019 17:37:51 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Fourth is better than Fifth!

[Deleted]

[Jack]