BMG

[Vibe]

Feb 18, 2019 15:03:50 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Feb 18, 2019 15:00:43 GMT Vibe said:

We are seeing a slight Conservative boost and the LD's can raise a glass too. Liberal 7's, a new party could be in the 20's.
It will be interesting to see polls post Brexit and when the conservatives get a new leader. Current polls me less than usual.

this is an old poll almost 2 weeks out of date. Also BMG have a LD house effect

All polls are out of date! LD figure is still up, house affect or not.

[LDCaerdydd]

I'd not seen it before and the tweet from Election Maps was today.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 15:12:29 GMT Vibe said:

Feb 18, 2019 15:03:50 GMT @priceofdawn said:

this is an old poll almost 2 weeks out of date. Also BMG have a LD house effect

All polls are out of date! LD figure is still up, house affect or not.

there are more recent polls than ten days. The point is it's up because of house effect

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 15:14:15 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I'd not seen it before and the tweet from Election Maps was today.

neither had I BMG tend to release their polls late

[iain]

Feb 18, 2019 15:45:12 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Feb 18, 2019 15:12:29 GMT Vibe said:

All polls are out of date! LD figure is still up, house affect or not.

there are more recent polls than ten days. The point is it's up because of house effect

It's not up because of a house effect. A house effect makes a party's score higher all the time.

[Chris from Brum]

Feb 18, 2019 15:58:03 GMT iain said:

Feb 18, 2019 15:45:12 GMT @priceofdawn said:

there are more recent polls than ten days. The point is it's up because of house effect

It's not up because of a house effect. A house effect makes a party's score higher all the time.

And BMG do indeed tend to be generous to the LDs, whereas Opinium I think sell us rather short, but are generous to the Kippers.  I think following the trend rather than the absolute number is the name of the game here (though I'd be pleased if we have reached 13!)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Lads, it's BMG.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 16:07:35 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 18, 2019 15:58:03 GMT iain said:

It's not up because of a house effect. A house effect makes a party's score higher all the time.

And BMG do indeed tend to be generous to the LDs, whereas Opinium I think sell us rather short, but are generous to the Kippers.  I think following the trend rather than the absolute number is the name of the game here (though I'd be pleased if we have reached 13!)

all evens out in the end

[tonygreaves]

Up 1% is not significant. Could be just one respondent (net!) (Still nice to see though in an irrational sort of way).

[archaeologist]

Details of the latest BMG poll are now available - www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/.

Without TIG
Con 39, Lab 34, LDm 12, UKIP 5, Grn 4, Oth 6

With TIG
Con 37, Lab 31, LDm 10, UKIP 6, Grn 5, TIG 5, Oth 6

Fieldwork dates: 4th - 8th March 2019

[carlton43]

Mar 15, 2019 10:36:39 GMT archaeologist said:

Details of the latest BMG poll are now available - www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/.

Without TIG
Con 39, Lab 34, LDm 12, UKIP 5, Grn 4, Oth 6

With TIG
Con 37, Lab 31, LDm 10, UKIP 6, Grn 5, TIG 5, Oth 6

Fieldwork dates: 4th - 8th March 2019

What total ullage that is.  What one expects when asking a daft question that is understood here but not by the mass of the public.  We are supposed to believe that the advent of an active TIG candidature does not just take a bit from other parties but puts up the vote for UKIP and Greens by a recordable difference? That is insane and pure evidence that those polled misunderstood the basis of one or both polls.

And it is absurdly extrapolated as if all those parties will fight every constituency, and if they don't then the figures even as an expression of current intention if such a candidate were to be available, are a complete nonsense.

This sort of polling is bollocks. But most of it is.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 15, 2019 10:36:39 GMT archaeologist said:

Details of the latest BMG poll are now available - www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/.

Without TIG
Con 39, Lab 34, LDm 12, UKIP 5, Grn 4, Oth 6

With TIG
Con 37, Lab 31, LDm 10, UKIP 6, Grn 5, TIG 5, Oth 6

Fieldwork dates: 4th - 8th March 2019

So Green and UKIP go up when TIG are included?

[hedgehog]

Mar 15, 2019 10:46:11 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 15, 2019 10:36:39 GMT archaeologist said:

Details of the latest BMG poll are now available - www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/.

Without TIG
Con 39, Lab 34, LDm 12, UKIP 5, Grn 4, Oth 6

With TIG
Con 37, Lab 31, LDm 10, UKIP 6, Grn 5, TIG 5, Oth 6

Fieldwork dates: 4th - 8th March 2019

So Green and UKIP go up when TIG are included?

Lets start a campaign to permanently include TIG

[hedgehog]

Mar 15, 2019 10:44:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Mar 15, 2019 10:36:39 GMT archaeologist said:

Details of the latest BMG poll are now available - www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/.

Without TIG
Con 39, Lab 34, LDm 12, UKIP 5, Grn 4, Oth 6

With TIG
Con 37, Lab 31, LDm 10, UKIP 6, Grn 5, TIG 5, Oth 6

Fieldwork dates: 4th - 8th March 2019

What total ullage that is.  What one expects when asking a daft question that is understood here but not by the mass of the public.  We are supposed to believe that the advent of an active TIG candidature does not just take a bit from other parties but puts up the vote for UKIP and Greens by a recordable difference? That is insane and pure evidence that those polled misunderstood the basis of one or both polls.

And it is absurdly extrapolated as if all those parties will fight every constituency, and if they don't then the figures even as an expression of current intention if such a candidate were to be available, are a complete nonsense.

This sort of polling is bollocks. But most of it is.

Prehaps having the prompt of TIG reminds people they don't have to say Labour or Conservative, it opens up their minds to the intoxicating possibilities of other parties.

[carlton43]

Mar 15, 2019 16:21:36 GMT hedgehog said:

Mar 15, 2019 10:44:26 GMT carlton43 said:

What total ullage that is.  What one expects when asking a daft question that is understood here but not by the mass of the public.  We are supposed to believe that the advent of an active TIG candidature does not just take a bit from other parties but puts up the vote for UKIP and Greens by a recordable difference? That is insane and pure evidence that those polled misunderstood the basis of one or both polls.

And it is absurdly extrapolated as if all those parties will fight every constituency, and if they don't then the figures even as an expression of current intention if such a candidate were to be available, are a complete nonsense.

This sort of polling is bollocks. But most of it is.

Prehaps having the prompt of TIG reminds people they don't have to say Labour or Conservative, it opens up their minds to the intoxicating possibilities of other parties.

Which in turn asks the question of did they ask each subject to revisit the first response in light of the different answer to the second response? If not...Why not? And is it practice to ask if the response differs if there is to be no TIG/LD/Green/Brexit candidate? Do they mention Brexit at all? Etc.?

[hedgehog]

Mar 15, 2019 16:37:01 GMT carlton43 said:

Mar 15, 2019 16:21:36 GMT hedgehog said:

Prehaps having the prompt of TIG reminds people they don't have to say Labour or Conservative, it opens up their minds to the intoxicating possibilities of other parties.

Which in turn asks the question of did they ask each subject to revisit the first response in light of the different answer to the second response? If not...Why not? And is it practice to ask if the response differs if there is to be no TIG/LD/Green/Brexit candidate? Do they mention Brexit at all? Etc.?

Does this help www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/

[greenchristian]

Mar 15, 2019 16:54:14 GMT hedgehog said:

Mar 15, 2019 16:37:01 GMT carlton43 said:

Which in turn asks the question of did they ask each subject to revisit the first response in light of the different answer to the second response? If not...Why not? And is it practice to ask if the response differs if there is to be no TIG/LD/Green/Brexit candidate? Do they mention Brexit at all? Etc.?

Does this help www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-march-2019/

The page suggests that the TIG question might have prompted for both Green and UKIP, when the regular VI question didn't, which would easily explain why those parties' vote shares went up in the TIG question. However, the methodology spreadsheet suggests that all parties were prompted for in the original survey, which leaves the result looking somewhat bizarre, as we've discussed.

[Deleted]

[Andrew_S]

[cogload]

Yeah. Nah.