BMG

[Davıd Boothroyd]

As I said on another thread, conference season polls fluctuate wildly. Or given some prefer to use a sailing analogy, choppy water.

[archaeologist]

Another BMG poll (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/9k55mr/bmg_research_lab_40_2_con_35_3_ldm_12_2_ukip_5/) - another extreme variation in the polls.

Conservatives 35% (-3)
Labour 40% (+2)
Lib Dems 12% (+2)
Ukip 5% (nc)
Other 8% (-1)

For what its worth, the last poll produced by each polling organisation in September (Survation, MORI, ICM, You Gov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG) covers the following ranges:

Con 38-42%
Lab 36-40%
LDm 9-13%
UKIP 2-6%
Grn 1-5%
Oth 3-9%

The normal statistical variation. As the BPC states (http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/british-polling-council-introduces-new-rule-on-uncertainty-attached-to-polls/) the true position is a party's support has a 90% chance of being within +/- 4% of the figure given in the poll (and a 67% chance of being within 2% of the poll figure).

[redtony]

Sept 30, 2018 15:04:38 GMT tonygreaves said:

So we now have some equal and opposite evidence of whether Labour the Labour conference bounced up or down. The interesting polls will be those after all the conferences have gone home.

[redtony]

The poll was on Friday and Saturday after conference. The YouGov one was taken on Monday and Tuesday during conference.
That would seem to indicate a Labour conference bounce if they are both any where near correct

[casualobserver]

Oct 1, 2018 22:00:25 GMT redtony said:

The poll was on Friday and Saturday after conference. The YouGov one was taken on Monday and Tuesday during conference.
That would seem to indicate a Labour conference bounce if they are both any where near correct

Big "if"!!

[Deleted]

Oct 2, 2018 14:21:49 GMT casualobserver said:

Oct 1, 2018 22:00:25 GMT redtony said:

The poll was on Friday and Saturday after conference. The YouGov one was taken on Monday and Tuesday during conference.
That would seem to indicate a Labour conference bounce if they are both any where near correct

Big "if"!!

we are talking about polling here

[seanf]

BMG picked up a sample of people who liked what Jeremy Corbyn said; Opinium picked up a sample of people who did not.

[The Bishop]

Oct 3, 2018 4:34:38 GMT seanf said:

BMG picked up a sample of people who liked what Jeremy Corbyn said; Opinium picked up a sample of people who did not.

Occam's Razor suggests this, though I think methodology differences may also play a part.

The fact that YouGov now seem to be regularly out of step with other pollsters is perhaps a different matter.....

[tonygreaves]

But they are not "regularly" significantly so.

[Deleted]

Oct 3, 2018 10:50:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 3, 2018 4:34:38 GMT seanf said:

BMG picked up a sample of people who liked what Jeremy Corbyn said; Opinium picked up a sample of people who did not.

Occam's Razor suggests this, though I think methodology differences may also play a part.

The fact that YouGov now seem to be regularly out of step with other pollsters is perhaps a different matter.....

though a lot of pollsters have similar methodologies yet different results which suggests sample variance

[LDCaerdydd]

[seanf]

BMG have 47% Leave, 48% Remain, among registered voters, conducted 4th to 7th December.

They've also polled those ineligible to vote (presumably foreign nationals) who favour Remain by 92% to 5%.

[thetop]

Dec 15, 2018 14:44:46 GMT seanf said:

BMG have 47% Leave, 48% Remain, among registered voters, conducted 4th to 7th December.

They've also polled those ineligible to vote (presumably foreign nationals) who favour Remain by 92% to 5%.

16-17 year olds?

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2018 15:56:06 GMT thetop said:

Dec 15, 2018 14:44:46 GMT seanf said:

BMG have 47% Leave, 48% Remain, among registered voters, conducted 4th to 7th December.

They've also polled those ineligible to vote (presumably foreign nationals) who favour Remain by 92% to 5%.

16-17 year olds?

EU nationals as well i imagine

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 15, 2018 17:20:32 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Dec 15, 2018 15:56:06 GMT thetop said:

16-17 year olds?

EU nationals as well i imagine

Most EU nationals *are* foreigners, and 66 million EU nationals are (currently) not foreigners by being British.

[john07]

Dec 15, 2018 19:58:48 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Dec 15, 2018 17:20:32 GMT @priceofdawn said:

EU nationals as well i imagine

Most EU nationals *are* foreigners, and 66 million EU nationals are (currently) not foreigners by being British.

There are a fair number of non-British EU nationals who are eligible to vote. Irish, Cypriots, etc. ?

[Deleted]

72% the lowest total since the GE for the 2 parties. YouGov still only Tory lead since 12th of Nov

[LDCaerdydd]

[Vibe]

Feb 18, 2019 14:42:50 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

We are seeing a slight Conservative boost and the LD's can raise a glass too. Liberal 7's, a new party could be in the 20's.
It will be interesting to see polls post Brexit and when the conservatives get a new leader. Current polls me less than usual.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 15:00:43 GMT Vibe said:

Feb 18, 2019 14:42:50 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

We are seeing a slight Conservative boost and the LD's can raise a glass too. Liberal 7's, a new party could be in the 20's.
It will be interesting to see polls post Brexit and when the conservatives get a new leader. Current polls me less than usual.

this is an old poll almost 2 weeks out of date. Also BMG have a LD house effect