BMG

[hullenedge]

Basically no change. Other polling companies said to be testing calibration techniques before posting voting intentions.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 14, 2024 13:40:01 GMT hullenedge said:

Basically no change. Other polling companies said to be testing calibration techniques before posting voting intentions.

I assume the Reform gains here are from the Conservatives (Basildon & Billericay and ..?) since they weren't that close behind Labour anywhere (and the Conservatives make compensatory gains from Labour)

[Pete Whitehead]

Oh Norfolk SW perhaps

[robert1]

Lettuce not discuss Norfolk SW please

[hullenedge]

SW Norfolk and Sittingbourne & Sheppey. All gains listed in the thread. Nothing much to see.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Aug 14, 2024 15:28:02 GMT robert1 said:

Lettuce not discuss Norfolk SW please

, Liz will be along shortly to sue!

[mattbewilson]

Aug 14, 2024 15:38:09 GMT hullenedge said:

SW Norfolk and Sittingbourne & Sheppey. All gains listed in the thread. Nothing much to see.

can you link, can't see thread. Not on twitter

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[nyx]

Aug 14, 2024 14:36:50 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I assume the Reform gains here are from the Conservatives (Basildon & Billericay and ..?) since they weren't that close behind Labour anywhere (and the Conservatives make compensatory gains from Labour)

Reform had five "near misses" in the election where they were less than 5% behind the winner. Sittingbourne and Sheppey (Lab 29.07%, Con 28.21%, Rfm 25.64%); Basildon and Billericay (Con 30.64%, Lab 30.59%, Rfm 26.95%); Llanelli (Lab 31.30%, Rfm 27.60%, PC 23.34%); Hornchurch and Upminster (Con 32.53%, Rfm 28.39%, Lab 27.58%); South West Norfolk (Lab 26.72%, Con 25.30%, Rfm 22.46%).

Interestingly, all five were three-way marginals. Reform exceeded 30% of the vote in ten constituencies and exceeded 25% of the vote in forty, but most of those were not three-way marginals so they were further away from winning.

[swanarcadian]

It all looks very different to the aftermath of the 1997 election when Labour got a huge boost and were enjoying leads of well over 30 points and ratings in the high 50s. I think it’s fair to say there has been no post election bounce anywhere near that this time.
That is not to say the Conservatives are benefiting - the whole party system has become more complex, and people almost voted as though we have adopted PR already; but you wouldn’t think so looking at the composition of the House of Commons and the seat projection. The smaller opposition parties seem to be getting the bounce, if anything.
Interesting times ahead.

[mattbewilson]

Aug 14, 2024 20:19:57 GMT swanarcadian said:

It all looks very different to the aftermath of the 1997 election when Labour got a huge boost and were enjoying leads of well over 30 points and ratings in the high 50s. I think it’s fair to say there has been no post election bounce anywhere near that this time.
That is not to say the Conservatives are benefiting - the whole party system has become more complex, and people almost voted as though we have adopted PR already; but you wouldn’t think so looking at the composition of the House of Commons and the seat projection. The smaller opposition parties seem to be getting the bounce, if anything.
Interesting times ahead.

though labour are maximising the vote where it matters

[kitesurfer]

Where are the Tory gains?

[mattbewilson]

Aug 15, 2024 7:12:33 GMT kitesurfer said:

Where are the Tory gains?

x.com/LeftieStats/status/1823691800436932966?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1823691800436932966%7Ctwgr%5E642941617f8af99cf1d620b3b7276daeab2c856a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F5592%2Fbmg%3Fpage%3D23

[The Bishop]

Given how other polling has shown Farage's personal ratings majorly down after recent events, Reform UK going up on their GE showing is perhaps surprising.

[london(ex)tory]

Aug 15, 2024 10:52:07 GMT The Bishop said:

Given how other polling has shown Farage's personal ratings majorly down after recent events, Reform UK going up on their GE showing is perhaps surprising.

I make it 5 polls having been published since the election - 3 x WeThink, 1 x BMG and 1 x Stonehaven - and *all* of them have shown us up on our GE score. If we’re genuinely “marmite” then that’s not necessarily wholly incompatible with Nigel’s ratings falling amongst people who are never going to vote for us anyway.

[nyx]

Aug 15, 2024 11:28:59 GMT london(ex)tory said:

Aug 15, 2024 10:52:07 GMT The Bishop said:

Given how other polling has shown Farage's personal ratings majorly down after recent events, Reform UK going up on their GE showing is perhaps surprising.

I make it 5 polls having been published since the election - 3 x WeThink, 1 x BMG and 1 x Stonehaven - and *all* of them have shown us up on our GE score. If we’re genuinely “marmite” then that’s not necessarily wholly incompatible with Nigel’s ratings falling amongst people who are never going to vote for us anyway.

Only 3 of those show up on Wikipedia- two We Think and the BMG one. Do you know where I can find the other two?

[london(ex)tory]

The other WeThink is in tables on the ominous website, and I saw reference to Stonehaven on Mark Pack’s website www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/ (but not seen any full tables yet).

[london(ex)tory]

Omnisis, not ominous LOL damn autocorrect!

[iainbhx]

Aug 15, 2024 12:38:33 GMT london(ex)tory said:

Omnisis, not ominous LOL damn autocorrect!

I dunno, might start using that as a nickname like ComRes became Comedy Results.