BMG

[stodge]

As usual, unwise to comment until we have seen the data tables.

How does BMG redistribute Don't Knows for example?

[Tony Otim]

And YouGov today have Reform up 3...
I'm not sure there's any real movement in any of these polls at the moment, just a bit of statistical noise.

[batman]

Anecdotally canvassers seem to be reporting that if anything Reform's vote is hardening, but there is no clear & unequivocal polling evidence for that yet.

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

BMG research about the composition (and change) of both main parties' support:-

[carolus]

[hullenedge]

[cogload]

That's a bit crap.

[Yaffles]

Jun 20, 2024 16:46:24 GMT hullenedge said:

The trend appears to be set now - Reform catching and over taking the Tories. For the first time I think this may genuinely be an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.

They must find a way out of this mire and they have two weeks to do it.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 20, 2024 16:54:20 GMT Yaffles said:

Jun 20, 2024 16:46:24 GMT hullenedge said:

The trend appears to be set now - Reform catching and over taking the Tories. For the first time I think this may genuinely be an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.

They must find a way out of this mire and they have two weeks to do it.

The Tory guy on the lunchtime BBC programme (Charles Walker?) seemed only a step short of (politically) suicidal.

[rcronald]

At what point does reform start to threaten Labour in parts of the NE and Yorkshire?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 20, 2024 17:10:52 GMT rcronald said:

At what point does reform start to threaten Labour in parts of the NE and Yorkshire?

I don't think they threaten Labour in any of their existing seats or even those that require a relatively small swing for them to gain (eg Rother Valley). Where they may pose a problem for Labour is in eating into that Con-Lab swing voter territory which has already decided its not voting Conservative and has been rather unenthusiastically backing Labour by default up until now. It doesn't cost Labour a majority and only makes a difference at the margins, but you can see how any additional Reform surge could start to disproportionately impact on Labour and, perversely perhaps, help the Conservatives hold a few extra seats

[woollyliberal]

The last 5 polls in ascending order / average

Con 15, 18, 19, 20, 25 / 19.4%
Ref 14, 19, 19, 19, 24 / 19.0%

[mattbewilson]

If the MRPs are anything to believe Barnsley might be a shock

[carlton43]

Jun 20, 2024 17:10:52 GMT rcronald said:

At what point does reform start to threaten Labour in parts of the NE and Yorkshire?

Very soon I hope.

To use the distasteful phrase employed by many members of this Forum ...

'Wouldn't it be hilarious if Reform marched on to an actual victory and triumphalist Labour remained as HMLO'?

[manchesterman]

Jun 20, 2024 17:19:16 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 20, 2024 17:10:52 GMT rcronald said:

At what point does reform start to threaten Labour in parts of the NE and Yorkshire?

I don't think they threaten Labour in any of their existing seats or even those that require a relatively small swing for them to gain (eg Rother Valley). Where they may pose a problem for Labour is in eating into that Con-Lab swing voter territory which has already decided its not voting Conservative and has been rather unenthusiastically backing Labour by default up until now. It doesn't cost Labour a majority and only makes a difference at the margins, but you can see how any additional Reform surge could start to disproportionately impact on Labour and, perversely perhaps, help the Conservatives hold a few extra seats

Using Elec Calc (with all the usual caveats about its methodology!), I entered: Lab 36, Reform 26, Con 16  [assuming this would be agreed as an absolute best-case scenario for Reform at this stage], it gives Reform 65 seats...

...but the only seats in "the North" would be quite surprising... Skipton & Ripon, Burnley, Beverley & H'ness and Rochdale.  Even if you extend down to the Midlands, that only adds: Ashfield, Louth, Sleaford & NH, Boston & Skeggy,  S Holland & Deepings, Rutland & Stamford, Hinckley & Bosworth and Solihull W & Surely


So hardly a rash of Red Wall seats falling to Reform even if they get within 10% of the Labour vote share! 

[Tony Otim]

Jun 20, 2024 20:00:49 GMT manchesterman said:

Jun 20, 2024 17:19:16 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't think they threaten Labour in any of their existing seats or even those that require a relatively small swing for them to gain (eg Rother Valley). Where they may pose a problem for Labour is in eating into that Con-Lab swing voter territory which has already decided its not voting Conservative and has been rather unenthusiastically backing Labour by default up until now. It doesn't cost Labour a majority and only makes a difference at the margins, but you can see how any additional Reform surge could start to disproportionately impact on Labour and, perversely perhaps, help the Conservatives hold a few extra seats

Using Elec Calc (with all the usual caveats about its methodology!), I entered: Lab 36, Reform 26, Con 16  [assuming this would be agreed as an absolute best-case scenario for Reform at this stage], it gives Reform 65 seats...

...but the only seats in "the North" would be quite surprising... Skipton & Ripon, Burnley, Beverley & H'ness and Rochdale.  Even if you extend down to the Midlands, that only adds: Ashfield, Louth, Sleaford & NH, Boston & Skeggy,  S Holland & Deepings, Rutland & Stamford, Hinckley & Bosworth and Solihull W & Surely


So hardly a rash of Red Wall seats falling to Reform even if they get within 10% of the Labour vote share! 

Although I suspect this may prove more about the crap-ness of electoral calculus than anything else.

[manchesterman]

I did put a health warning Tony

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]