India

[Georg Ebner]

NDTV seems to be fastest updating the results:

www.ndtv.com/elections

www.news18.com/assembly-elections-2023/

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

www.indiatoday.in/election-analysis-dashboard/tripura/2023/index.html?v=1.25&utm_source=IT+Website&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=EI+Dashboard

BJP is presently in line with expectations in Tripura and overperforming in the other 2 states. Though i am not sure, how much is counted - the PV at the beginning are usually favourable to them.

[ibfc]

Feb 1, 2023 4:28:32 GMT ibfc said:

The first state assembly elections of 2023 will be held in February with Tripura going to the polls on 16 February followed by Meghalaya and Nagaland on 27 February. The results will be declared on 2 March. All three are small north eastern states with Meghalaya and Nagaland being two of India’s three Christian majority states. Tripura is currently ruled by the BJP while Nagaland is ruled by a coalition of the Naga Nationalist NDPP and the BJP. Anti Gandhi family North Eastern stalwart, late P A Sangma’s NPP rules Meghalaya backed by a hotch potch of regional parties and the BJP.

The BJP is fighting Tripura in alliance with the Tripuri nationalist IPFT (Indigenous Patriotic Front of Tripura) against an alliance of the CPM and Congress and a third front led by the TIPRA. TIPRA is the personal vehicle of Pradyot Deb Burman the titular ruler of Tripura and it is expected to sweep the 20 Tripuri seats while the contest in the 40 Bengali majority seats will be between the BJP and CPM Congress alliance.

Nagaland will see a straight fight between the NDPP BJP alliance and the former’s parent party the Naga People’s Front. Meghalaya will see a multi cornered fight with the government parties fighting independently against the Congress as well as the Trinamool Congress which has acquired a huge number of Congress MLAs over the past year. As ever, the divide between the Garo Hills and the Khasi- Jaintia hills will be crucial.

While all these states have very interesting electoral histories, I don’t think I’ll have the time to post in more detail on this. Please do let me know if anybody has specific questions and will be happy to try and answer.

The results are broadly on expected lines.

Tripura (60/60)
BJP 32 (-3)
IPFT 1(-7)
TIPRA 13 (+13)
CPM 11(-5)
INC 3(+3)

BJP+ got whipped in tribal areas by TIPRA as expected but managed to gain enough from the CPM to squeak through. The interesting thing here will be the CM choice with Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik being considered to have an outside chance of replacing incumbent Manik Saha. Saha is a Himanta Biswa acolyte who defected from INC while Bhowmik is an old party worker from the days when the BJP didn’t exist in Tripura.

Meghalaya (59/59)
NPP 26(+7)
UDP (Khasi Regionalists) 11(+5)
INC 5(-16)
AITC 5(+5)
VOP (More extreme Khasi Regionalists) 4(+4)
HSPDP (Also Khasi Regionalists) 2(-)
PDF (Yet more Khasi Regionalists) 2(-2)
BJP 2(-)
Ind 2

Big story here is the surge of the NPP and the collapse of the Congress to the benefit of various parties with the Khasi vote having gone to Regionalists, the Jaintia and Garo vote to NPP and the Muslim vote to AITC. Hindus seem to have consolidated for the BJP where relevant but got outvoted by Christian consolidation for the NPP and consolidated for the NPP otherwise. Essentially, the NPP is now the centre of politics in Meghalaya and Conrad Sangma is reaching heights his father could never achieve. Conrad has already spoken to Amit Shah and there will be a NPP + BJP+ some others Government.

Nagaland
NDPP 25(+8)
BJP 12(-)
NCP 7(+7)
NPP 5(+3)
NPF 2(-25)
LJP (RV) 2(+2)
RPI (A) 2(+2)
JD(U) 1(-)
Ind 4

While the ruling combine of NDPP and BJP won a clear victory here, the story is the absolute collapse of the NPF at the expense of the NDPP and smaller parties. These smaller parties are essentially BJP proxies (including the NCP) and will allow the BJP to control the NDPP. Nephiu Riu will continue to be the CM as he has been since 2003 except for a break between 14 and 18 when he went to Parliament.

[rcronald]

Mar 2, 2023 14:06:06 GMT ibfc said:

Feb 1, 2023 4:28:32 GMT ibfc said:

The first state assembly elections of 2023 will be held in February with Tripura going to the polls on 16 February followed by Meghalaya and Nagaland on 27 February. The results will be declared on 2 March. All three are small north eastern states with Meghalaya and Nagaland being two of India’s three Christian majority states. Tripura is currently ruled by the BJP while Nagaland is ruled by a coalition of the Naga Nationalist NDPP and the BJP. Anti Gandhi family North Eastern stalwart, late P A Sangma’s NPP rules Meghalaya backed by a hotch potch of regional parties and the BJP.

The BJP is fighting Tripura in alliance with the Tripuri nationalist IPFT (Indigenous Patriotic Front of Tripura) against an alliance of the CPM and Congress and a third front led by the TIPRA. TIPRA is the personal vehicle of Pradyot Deb Burman the titular ruler of Tripura and it is expected to sweep the 20 Tripuri seats while the contest in the 40 Bengali majority seats will be between the BJP and CPM Congress alliance.

Nagaland will see a straight fight between the NDPP BJP alliance and the former’s parent party the Naga People’s Front. Meghalaya will see a multi cornered fight with the government parties fighting independently against the Congress as well as the Trinamool Congress which has acquired a huge number of Congress MLAs over the past year. As ever, the divide between the Garo Hills and the Khasi- Jaintia hills will be crucial.

While all these states have very interesting electoral histories, I don’t think I’ll have the time to post in more detail on this. Please do let me know if anybody has specific questions and will be happy to try and answer.

The results are broadly on expected lines.

Tripura (60/60)
BJP 32 (-3)
IPFT 1(-7)
TIPRA 13 (+13)
CPM 11(-5)
INC 3(+3)

BJP+ got whipped in tribal areas by TIPRA as expected but managed to gain enough from the CPM to squeak through. The interesting thing here will be the CM choice with Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik being considered to have an outside chance of replacing incumbent Manik Saha. Saha is a Himanta Biswa acolyte who defected from INC while Bhowmik is an old party worker from the days when the BJP didn’t exist in Tripura.

Meghalaya (59/59)
NPP 26(+7)
UDP (Khasi Regionalists) 11(+5)
INC 5(-16)
AITC 5(+5)
VOP (More extreme Khasi Regionalists) 4(+4)
HSPDP (Also Khasi Regionalists) 2(-)
PDF (Yet more Khasi Regionalists) 2(-2)
BJP 2(-)
Ind 2

Big story here is the surge of the NPP and the collapse of the Congress to the benefit of various parties with the Khasi vote having gone to Regionalists, the Jaintia and Garo vote to NPP and the Muslim vote to AITC. Hindus seem to have consolidated for the BJP where relevant but got outvoted by Christian consolidation for the NPP and consolidated for the NPP otherwise. Essentially, the NPP is now the centre of politics in Meghalaya and Conrad Sangma is reaching heights his father could never achieve. Conrad has already spoken to Amit Shah and there will be a NPP + BJP+ some others Government.

Nagaland
NDPP 25(+8)
BJP 12(-)
NCP 7(+7)
NPP 5(+3)
NPF 2(-25)
LJP (RV) 2(+2)
RPI (A) 2(+2)
JD(U) 1(-)
Ind 4

While the ruling combine of NDPP and BJP won a clear victory here, the story is the absolute collapse of the NPF at the expense of the NDPP and smaller parties. These smaller parties are essentially BJP proxies (including the NCP) and will allow the BJP to control the NDPP. Nephiu Riu will continue to be the CM as he has been since 2003 except for a break between 14 and 18 when he went to Parliament.

Since when is the NCP pro-BJP?

[ibfc]

Mar 2, 2023 14:45:14 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 2, 2023 14:06:06 GMT ibfc said:

The results are broadly on expected lines.

Tripura (60/60)
BJP 32 (-3)
IPFT 1(-7)
TIPRA 13 (+13)
CPM 11(-5)
INC 3(+3)

BJP+ got whipped in tribal areas by TIPRA as expected but managed to gain enough from the CPM to squeak through. The interesting thing here will be the CM choice with Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik being considered to have an outside chance of replacing incumbent Manik Saha. Saha is a Himanta Biswa acolyte who defected from INC while Bhowmik is an old party worker from the days when the BJP didn’t exist in Tripura.

Meghalaya (59/59)
NPP 26(+7)
UDP (Khasi Regionalists) 11(+5)
INC 5(-16)
AITC 5(+5)
VOP (More extreme Khasi Regionalists) 4(+4)
HSPDP (Also Khasi Regionalists) 2(-)
PDF (Yet more Khasi Regionalists) 2(-2)
BJP 2(-)
Ind 2

Big story here is the surge of the NPP and the collapse of the Congress to the benefit of various parties with the Khasi vote having gone to Regionalists, the Jaintia and Garo vote to NPP and the Muslim vote to AITC. Hindus seem to have consolidated for the BJP where relevant but got outvoted by Christian consolidation for the NPP and consolidated for the NPP otherwise. Essentially, the NPP is now the centre of politics in Meghalaya and Conrad Sangma is reaching heights his father could never achieve. Conrad has already spoken to Amit Shah and there will be a NPP + BJP+ some others Government.

Nagaland
NDPP 25(+8)
BJP 12(-)
NCP 7(+7)
NPP 5(+3)
NPF 2(-25)
LJP (RV) 2(+2)
RPI (A) 2(+2)
JD(U) 1(-)
Ind 4

While the ruling combine of NDPP and BJP won a clear victory here, the story is the absolute collapse of the NPF at the expense of the NDPP and smaller parties. These smaller parties are essentially BJP proxies (including the NCP) and will allow the BJP to control the NDPP. Nephiu Riu will continue to be the CM as he has been since 2003 except for a break between 14 and 18 when he went to Parliament.

Since when is the NCP pro-BJP?

NCP in small states is controlled by Praful Patel who essentially sells the NCP symbol to whichever independent is introduced to him by the BJP.

[Georg Ebner]

I wonder, how much of its present support would be left, if the BJP was not able to deliver federal subSidies?

[ibfc]

Mar 2, 2023 17:34:04 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I wonder, how much of its present support would be left, if the BJP was not able to deliver federal subSidies?

Differs from state to state. BJP support in Assam, Tripura, the Imphal Valley in Manipur and parts of Arunachal Pradesh is primarily Hindu nationalist in orientation. It’ll not disappear if it loses power nationally. The Naga alliance is now two decades old and is based on the tacit backing of the NSCN (IM) faction. However, support among Kukis in Manipur, ability to help NPP become the dominant party in Meghalaya and totally lock the Congress out in Arunachal and Nagaland are driven from federal support.
You can see this from which states have BJP chief ministers as opposed to allies. Assam, Tripura, Manipur and Arunachal have them while Nagaland and Meghalaya have allies. Mizoram has a non BJP non Congress CM who receives very tacit BJP support just to keep the Congress out. That’s because the Mizos along with the Khasis are the most anti BJP tribe in the entire region.

[minionofmidas]

Is it normal that we still don't have an election schedule for Karnataka?

[ibfc]

Yes, the election schedule was announced on 27 March last time for a 12 May election. The dates should be similar give or take a week.

[ibfc]

Mar 2, 2023 14:06:06 GMT ibfc said:

Feb 1, 2023 4:28:32 GMT ibfc said:

The first state assembly elections of 2023 will be held in February with Tripura going to the polls on 16 February followed by Meghalaya and Nagaland on 27 February. The results will be declared on 2 March. All three are small north eastern states with Meghalaya and Nagaland being two of India’s three Christian majority states. Tripura is currently ruled by the BJP while Nagaland is ruled by a coalition of the Naga Nationalist NDPP and the BJP. Anti Gandhi family North Eastern stalwart, late P A Sangma’s NPP rules Meghalaya backed by a hotch potch of regional parties and the BJP.

The BJP is fighting Tripura in alliance with the Tripuri nationalist IPFT (Indigenous Patriotic Front of Tripura) against an alliance of the CPM and Congress and a third front led by the TIPRA. TIPRA is the personal vehicle of Pradyot Deb Burman the titular ruler of Tripura and it is expected to sweep the 20 Tripuri seats while the contest in the 40 Bengali majority seats will be between the BJP and CPM Congress alliance.

Nagaland will see a straight fight between the NDPP BJP alliance and the former’s parent party the Naga People’s Front. Meghalaya will see a multi cornered fight with the government parties fighting independently against the Congress as well as the Trinamool Congress which has acquired a huge number of Congress MLAs over the past year. As ever, the divide between the Garo Hills and the Khasi- Jaintia hills will be crucial.

While all these states have very interesting electoral histories, I don’t think I’ll have the time to post in more detail on this. Please do let me know if anybody has specific questions and will be happy to try and answer.

The results are broadly on expected lines.

Tripura (60/60)
BJP 32 (-3)
IPFT 1(-7)
TIPRA 13 (+13)
CPM 11(-5)
INC 3(+3)

BJP+ got whipped in tribal areas by TIPRA as expected but managed to gain enough from the CPM to squeak through. The interesting thing here will be the CM choice with Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik being considered to have an outside chance of replacing incumbent Manik Saha. Saha is a Himanta Biswa acolyte who defected from INC while Bhowmik is an old party worker from the days when the BJP didn’t exist in Tripura.

Meghalaya (59/59)
NPP 26(+7)
UDP (Khasi Regionalists) 11(+5)
INC 5(-16)
AITC 5(+5)
VOP (More extreme Khasi Regionalists) 4(+4)
HSPDP (Also Khasi Regionalists) 2(-)
PDF (Yet more Khasi Regionalists) 2(-2)
BJP 2(-)
Ind 2

Big story here is the surge of the NPP and the collapse of the Congress to the benefit of various parties with the Khasi vote having gone to Regionalists, the Jaintia and Garo vote to NPP and the Muslim vote to AITC. Hindus seem to have consolidated for the BJP where relevant but got outvoted by Christian consolidation for the NPP and consolidated for the NPP otherwise. Essentially, the NPP is now the centre of politics in Meghalaya and Conrad Sangma is reaching heights his father could never achieve. Conrad has already spoken to Amit Shah and there will be a NPP + BJP+ some others Government.

Nagaland
NDPP 25(+8)
BJP 12(-)
NCP 7(+7)
NPP 5(+3)
NPF 2(-25)
LJP (RV) 2(+2)
RPI (A) 2(+2)
JD(U) 1(-)
Ind 4

While the ruling combine of NDPP and BJP won a clear victory here, the story is the absolute collapse of the NPF at the expense of the NDPP and smaller parties. These smaller parties are essentially BJP proxies (including the NCP) and will allow the BJP to control the NDPP. Nephiu Riu will continue to be the CM as he has been since 2003 except for a break between 14 and 18 when he went to Parliament.

All three state governments have been sworn in with the incumbent CMs continuing in all three states (I guess the last time this happened anywhere was in the same cycle in 2013).
In Tripura, the BJP central leadership seems to have plumped for stability over charisma and have stuck with Manik Saha. It remains to be seen as to what they do with Pratima as she’s a sitting central minister and has won an MLA seat that cannot be won by anyone else. I guess they will make her the state president and make her leave the central ministry. The BJP is negotiating with TIPRA and has left 3 vacant berths in the ministry for them.

Nagaland played out as I had expected with every MLA pledging support to the NDPP BJP alliance. So the state has no official opposition again (which was the case before the election also but that was more of a mid term phenomenon.)

Meghalaya saw some drama with Conrad Sangma initially pitching for a narrow alliance of only the NPP BJP HSPDP and two independents. This basically meant dumping the UDP which had won 11 seats as well as the PDF. UDP made a counter move by trying to pitch together an anti NPP BJP alliance by getting the support of the INC, AITC, VOP, PDP and one independent elected from the Khasi Hills. They also got the support of the president of the HSPDP. However, this alliance was very clearly seen as an anti Garo alliance and this meant that they couldn’t get the support of one HSPDP MLA (elected from a Garo majority seat in the Khasi Hills) and the other independent who is from the Garo Hills. This along with not having central government support made the alliance still born but it conveyed the message to Conrad who agreed to take the UDP into the cabinet. The final cabinet has 8 NPP, 2 UDP, 1 HSPDP and 1 BJP minister including one Deputy CM each from the Khasi Hills and the Jaintia Hills. The narrow nature of the NPP’s support in these regions among their Christian majority is shown by the Khasi DCM representing the only Niam Khasi (indigenous Khasi religion) majority seat in the Khasi Hills and the Jaintia DCM being a Niamtre (indigenous Jaintia religion) adherent when both the tribes are >70% Christian. Conrad himself is of course a Christian along with the majority of the other ministers including the BJP’s Alexander Hek.

[ibfc]

Karnataka election dates should be announced next week and the INC released its first set of candidates today for 124 seats. Former CM and LoP Siddaramiah is returning to his traditional seat of Varuna replacing his son who is the sitting mla. The purpose seems to be to ensure his victory.

[ibfc]

Single phase polls in Karnataka on 10th May and counting on the 13th.

[ibfc]

Former CM Jagadish Shettar and Deputy CM Laxman Savadi have both quit the BJP and joined the Congress after being denied tickets. A whole host of smaller leaders have also rebelled. The JD(S) especially has got almost 30-40 candidates over the last two weeks from disgruntled BJP and INC aspirants.

[rcronald]

Any update about the assassination of former gangster and MP Atique Ahmed?
Was it gang-related, or faith-related (we are talking about Uttar Pradesh after all)? ibfc

[ibfc]

Apr 17, 2023 5:13:28 GMT rcronald said:

Any update about the assassination of former gangster and MP Atique Ahmed?
Was it gang-related, or faith-related (we are talking about Uttar Pradesh after all)? ibfc

Definitely not gang related. You can call it faith related I guess. People realise Muslim dons can be gotten rid of without fear of any repercussions. Even if the assasins are convicted, they will be forever remembered as heroes and their families will get social and economic benefits.

[rcronald]

Apr 17, 2023 6:00:08 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 17, 2023 5:13:28 GMT rcronald said:

Any update about the assassination of former gangster and MP Atique Ahmed?
Was it gang-related, or faith-related (we are talking about Uttar Pradesh after all)? ibfc

Definitely not gang related. You can call it faith related I guess. People realise Muslim dons can be gotten rid of without fear of any repercussions.

Unless the don’s name is Dawood Ibrahim…

[ibfc]

Apr 17, 2023 7:20:22 GMT rcronald said:

Apr 17, 2023 6:00:08 GMT ibfc said:

Definitely not gang related. You can call it faith related I guess. People realise Muslim dons can be gotten rid of without fear of any repercussions.

Unless the don’s name is Dawood Ibrahim…

He’s not in India

[Georg Ebner]

For Karnataka - which will be counted on SaturDay - the exitPolls are out:

Other pollsters (all pro-INC):




AxisMyIndia, which is usually the best one (but had BJP 2018 far too low), in more detail:

[minionofmidas]

Bar chart on twitter

[minionofmidas]

Counting now ongoing, Congress largest party confirmed but hovering right around the majority mark.

[minionofmidas]

Now looking like a clear majority.