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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 17:00:02 GMT
Often it can work in reverse with voters shifting to make sure their blocs ally stays in.
Bad poll for the left.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 11, 2014 17:19:10 GMT
Often it can work in reverse with voters shifting to make sure their blocs ally stays in. That would make sense, I have to say I'd never thought abut how tactical voting works in a proportional voting system. I suppose that means that in a system like this a party polling on or around the threshold level will gain tactical votes whereas one polling well below it will lose tactical votes. So if the KDs and Left can keep their polling at around this level they will keep their tactical voters whereas if they fall significantly below it they will start to lose them quickly (as no doubt the Feminst Party will). Is that right? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 17:22:40 GMT
Often it can work in reverse with voters shifting to make sure their blocs ally stays in. That would make sense, I have to say I'd never thought abut how tactical voting works in a proportional voting system. I suppose that means that in a system like this a party polling on or around the threshold level will gain tactical votes whereas one polling well below it will lose tactical votes. So if the KDs and Left can keep their polling at around this level they will keep their tactical voters whereas if they fall significantly below it they will start to lose them quickly (as no doubt the Feminst Party will). Is that right? I assume so! Despite the number of small parties dancing around the threshold in Scandinavia it's actually pretty rare for them to ever fall out of parliament. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Dec 11, 2014 20:30:52 GMT
This didn't work last time for FI! however, as it appears last minute switches from FI! mainly to the SocDems happened because their supporters thought their votes would be wasted as FI! were just on the edge of the threshold.
Maybe this will happen next time for the KDs and Left?
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Post by Devonian on Dec 11, 2014 23:51:07 GMT
This didn't work last time for FI! however, as it appears last minute switches from FI! mainly to the SocDems happened because their supporters thought their votes would be wasted as FI! were just on the edge of the threshold. Maybe this will happen next time for the KDs and Left? I think that's why its important for the tactical votes where exactly a party is in relation to the threshold. From Wikipedia there is a couple of interesting graphs I found one is for polling figures in Sweden for the 2010-14 Parliament  As it appears from that graph the Christian Democrats in dark blue and the Centre Party in dark green both spent much of the parliament hovering on or around the four percent mark. Towards the election both had a small swing in there favour, Centre Party more that Christian Democrats but both got such a swing. The Feminist party in pink by contrast was hovering at the three percent mark and didn't get any such swing. The other graph was polling for the smaller parties in the 2006-10 Parliament  In this graph the Sweden Democrats are in yellow, Christian Democrats dotted blue line and Centre Party the dotted green line. Again a similar pattern with the latter two parties What all this suggests to me is that as long as smaller parties keep to around the four percent threshold mark they can get tactical votes but that if there is clear distance between the party and the threshold then the tactical voters will swing the other way. That suggests that if if the Christain and Left parties stay at their present polling level they should be alright but if the fall consistantly and clearly below it at any point the tactical votes could start to swing away and then they'd be in trouble. Based on past performance they should both be OK but we'll see how the election campaign goes. |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 12, 2014 1:15:19 GMT
Another poll this one from Sentio, fieldwork 4-10 December Change from last poll, fieldwork 25-30 November in brackets Social Democratic 29.7% (+2.3) Moderate 24.5% (+0.6) Sweden Democrats 17.5% (+1.1) Green Party 7.2% (-0.3) Centre Party 5.5% (-0.7) Left 5.1% (-2.3) Christian Democrats 3.9% (+1.6) Liberals 3.7% (-2.5) avpixlat.info/2014/12/11/sentio-december-4/Another good poll from the Sweden Democrats, another bad poll for the Left party and in contrast to the Inizio poll a bad poll for the Alliance. I work it out to be Red/Green 42% Alliance 37.6% Sweden Democrats 17.5% However since two Alliance parties are shown as failing to reach the threshold in this poll if they are excluded it would be Red/Green 42% Alliance 30% Sweden Democrats 17.5% |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2014 2:16:02 GMT
What all this suggests to me is that as long as smaller parties keep to around the four percent threshold mark they can get tactical votes but that if there is clear distance between the party and the threshold then the tactical voters will swing the other way. That suggests that if if the Christain and Left parties stay at their present polling level they should be alright but if the fall consistantly and clearly below it at any point the tactical votes could start to swing away and then they'd be in trouble. Based on past performance they should both be OK but we'll see how the election campaign goes. There could well be some truth to that. The thing with the Feminist Initiative though is that it's basically a personality cult for Gudrun Schyman, who was leader of the Left Party from 1993 until 2003, when she was found guilty of tax evasion. The pool of potential tactical votes for her outfit is probably rather small, so I'm not sure that I'd read too much into its flat-lining at 3%. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 12, 2014 4:28:23 GMT
That Inizio poll has a seemingly overstated Centre vote compared to the other polls.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Dec 12, 2014 9:04:28 GMT
There could well be some truth to that. The thing with the Feminist Initiative though is that it's basically a personality cult for Gudrun Schyman, who was leader of the Left Party from 1993 until 2003, when she was found guilty of tax evasion. The pool of potential tactical votes for her outfit is probably rather small, so I'm not sure that I'd read too much into its flat-lining at 3%. Surely, it's tax avoision?  |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 17, 2014 22:12:36 GMT
Novus poll, Fieldwork 3-14 December Changes in brackets are from previous poll, fieldwork 13 Oct - 9 Nov Social Democratic 32.0% (+3.4) Moderate 23.7% (+2.1) Swedish Democrats 16.0% (+3.7) Centre Party 6.6% (-0.5) Green Party 6.0% (-1.9) Left 5.3% (-1.0) Liberals 4.3% (-0.9) Christian Democrats 3.9% (+0.1) Block totals SocDems+Greens+Left 43.3% (+0.5) Alliance 38.5% (-3.6) Sweden Democrats 16.0% (+3.7) Block totals above 4% threshold SocDems+Greens+Left 43.3% (+0.5) Alliance 34.6% (-7.5) Sweden Democrats 16.0% (+3.7) www.novus.se/media/35868/novus_v_ljarbarometer_16_december_2014.pdf |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 17, 2014 23:53:26 GMT
So even on the lower of the two most recent polls, the Sweden Democrats at 16% are at 50% of the Social Democrats on 36%. That must now be a real concern that they approach being a bar to power as a permanent potential spoiler by siding in protest or confidence votes with any opposition. As well as being a concern because they are antagonistic to the whole ethos of Swedish politics and the liberal/socialist consensus.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Dec 18, 2014 8:45:17 GMT
So even on the lower of the two most recent polls, the Sweden Democrats at 16% are at 50% of the Social Democrats on 36%. That must now be a real concern that they approach being a bar to power as a permanent potential spoiler by siding in protest or confidence votes with any opposition. As well as being a concern because they are antagonistic to the whole ethos of Swedish politics and the liberal/socialist consensus. It's okay, cos the SwedDems will never make it to the polling centres as they'll be stuck in traffic jams caused by immigrants... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 18, 2014 21:07:05 GMT
Just to prove how idiotic our 5 year fixed term parliament act is, Sweden will have had 3 general election whilst the UK hasn't had one:
Swedish general elections since May 2010:
19th September 2010
14th September 2014
22nd March 2015
Australia has had two, with another one to come within about 18 months of our next general election:
21st August 2010
7th September 2013
On or before 14th January 2017
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Post by Devonian on Dec 21, 2014 11:25:17 GMT
A couple more polls. These ones show little or no bounce for the Sweden Democrats. Whether that is because the bounce was very short lived or whether its just these pollsters we shall have to wait and see. Also both polls show the Christian Democrats in trouble below the threshold This one from Ipsos, fieldwork 8-15 December Change from last poll, fieldwork 13-24 November in brackets Social Democratic 32.0% (+3.5) Moderate 26.3% (-0.2) Sweden Democrats 12.5% (nc) Green Party 6.7% (-0.7) Liberals 5.6% (-0.8) Left 5.4% (-0.8) Centre Party 5.1% (-1.1) Christian Democrats 3.9% (+1.6) Feminist 1.5% (-0.9) ipsos.se/sites/default/files/pdf/DN-Ipsos-valjarbarometer-141216.pdfand the Electograph.com chart for this poll  |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 21, 2014 11:35:01 GMT
Poll from Sifo, fieldwork 8-18 December Change from last poll, fieldwork 10-20 November in brackets Social Democratic 31.0% (+2.6) Moderate 24.5% (-1.1) Sweden Democrats 12.9% (+0.8) Green Party 7.4% (-1.0) Centre Party 6.1% (nc) Left 5.9% (nc) Liberals 5.7% (-0.2) Christian Democrats 3.7% (-0.2) Feminist 2.4% (-0.4) www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-svd-sifo-miljopartiet-har-imploderat_4206337.svdAnd the Electograph.com chart for this poll  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2014 12:28:50 GMT
Poll from Sifo, fieldwork 8-18 December Change from last poll, fieldwork 10-20 November in brackets Social Democratic 31.0% (+2.6) Moderate 24.5% (-1.1) Sweden Democrats 12.9% (+0.8) Green Party 7.4% (-1.0) Centre Party 6.1% (nc) Left 5.9% (nc) Liberals 5.7% (-0.2) Christian Democrats 3.7% (-0.2) Feminist 2.4% (-0.4) www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-svd-sifo-miljopartiet-har-imploderat_4206337.svdAnd the Electograph.com chart for this poll I love these Electograph charts. They should do them for all countries. |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 27, 2014 10:07:12 GMT
Swedish general election, which had been due to be formally called on Monday is not to go ahead after all. The Government has struck a deal with the Alliance. The Government will stay in place and will implement the Alliance budget passed by the Riksdag www.thelocal.se/20141227/sweden-to-scrap-new-election-report |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 27, 2014 10:12:05 GMT
Swedish general election, which had been due to be formally called on Monday is not to go ahead after all. The Government has struck a deal with the Alliance. The Government will stay in place and will implement the Alliance budget passed by the Riksdag www.thelocal.se/20141227/sweden-to-scrap-new-election-reportwhat a terrible waste of all those opinion polls.... |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 27, 2014 10:24:36 GMT
Swedish general election, which had been due to be formally called on Monday is not to go ahead after all. The Government has struck a deal with the Alliance. The Government will stay in place and will implement the Alliance budget passed by the Riksdag www.thelocal.se/20141227/sweden-to-scrap-new-election-reportwhat a terrible waste of all those opinion polls.... Joking aside I think it was the opinion polls that forced the deal. The Sweden Democrats were shown as likely to gain seats not lose them, the Red/Greens would still not have had a majority and the Alliance were in severe danger of losing the Christian Democrats from Parliament altogether. Here they all are  |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 27, 2014 13:07:08 GMT
So a 'bonding' through fear rather than based on agreement and goodwill? Sure to succeed then!
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