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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 3, 2014 23:24:10 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 4, 2014 13:09:29 GMT
Well, if that Sentio poll for Dagen is accurate, I have to take my hat off to Devonian for calling it. It would suggests the KDS vote going to the SDs, and the reduced SoDem vote going over to Left. The Alliance look to be narrowing the gap, but the collapse in the KDS vote would prevent a victory. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2014 14:11:21 GMT
Well, if that Sentio poll for Dagen is accurate, I have to take my hat off to Devonian for calling it. It would suggests the KDS vote going to the SDs, and the reduced SoDem vote going over to Left. The Alliance look to be narrowing the gap, but the collapse in the KDS vote would prevent a victory. Sentio seem to regularly show the highest results for SD and in fact the score was marginally lower than what was reported in October. So I'd wait for more polls |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 4, 2014 14:19:20 GMT
Well, if that Sentio poll for Dagen is accurate, I have to take my hat off to Devonian for calling it. It would suggests the KDS vote going to the SDs, and the reduced SoDem vote going over to Left. The Alliance look to be narrowing the gap, but the collapse in the KDS vote would prevent a victory. Sentio seem to regularly show the highest results for SD and in fact the score was marginally lower than what was reported in October. So I'd wait for more polls I think you're right. I'm convinced the SoDem vote is understated. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 4, 2014 14:22:20 GMT
Sentio seem to regularly show the highest results for SD and in fact the score was marginally lower than what was reported in October. So I'd wait for more polls I think you're right. I'm convinced the SoDem vote is understated. And all the party rhetoric of a campaign is likely to increase it more than diminish it. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 4, 2014 16:14:21 GMT
This is the kind of election in which the actual campaign could matter a great deal.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 4, 2014 17:08:57 GMT
Well, if that Sentio poll for Dagen is accurate, I have to take my hat off to Devonian for calling it. It would suggests the KDS vote going to the SDs, and the reduced SoDem vote going over to Left. The Alliance look to be narrowing the gap, but the collapse in the KDS vote would prevent a victory. My thought about your suggestion that 'the electorate' would punish the Swdish Democrats for having precipitated an early election is that it would depend what part of the electorate is being referred to. I suspect that many voters who would never in a million years vote Swedish Democrats might be irritated. SD voters from the last election might well take a different view. The SDs have been subject to a barrage of hostile propaganda and worse for years. Someone who still votes SD after all that is likely to quite definite views on the issues. I suspect a voter like that might have been a great deal more disappointed with the SDs if they had propped up a government persueing policies the exact opposite to what SD voters want. Indeed such voters might be pleased enthused to see the SDs finally able to project some political power after years of political powerlessness. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 4, 2014 17:18:06 GMT
By 'worse' you mean their own past, presumably?
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Post by Devonian on Dec 4, 2014 17:38:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2014 21:43:58 GMT
Latest poll has Left/Right blocs equal on 41.7% (Christian Dems at 4%) and SD level at 13%. First time the right have come level in post-election polls. Although fieldwork was over a week, so not all were polled after the budget failed.
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Post by coolhandluke on Dec 6, 2014 10:38:53 GMT
Sentio seem to regularly show the highest results for SD and in fact the score was marginally lower than what was reported in October. If the Sentio poll is accurate then SD has gained since the 2014 GE? Could Sentio have changed their methodology since to help capture the actual support of SD as it did seem most polls underestimated SD support at the last election? In the new DN/Ipsos poll, the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats are most likely to retain their voters. The survey also suggests the Sweden Democrats have the biggest potential to gain more support (3/10 of Alliance voters and 2/10 of red-green voters). linkAccording to the DN/Ipsos poll, 35 percent blame the government for the crisis, 24 percent blame the Sweden Democrats and 17 percent the Alliance parties. Also 40 percent say they want more cooperation between the political parties. Could Sweden be heading for a Grand Coalition? link |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2014 10:50:20 GMT
I'd be intrigued by something like a SoDem, Centre and LPP coalition (not impossible)- that would radically change the face of Swedish politics.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 6, 2014 12:05:20 GMT
Alternately - whoever becomes the Opposition doesn't put forward a formal opposition budget to stop the SwDems's (oh what the hell, the Fascists) acting as spoilers which is what they are doing
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Post by Devonian on Dec 6, 2014 12:47:14 GMT
Alternately - whoever becomes the Opposition doesn't put forward a formal opposition budget to stop the SwDems's (oh what the hell, the Fascists) acting as spoilers which is what they are doing A supply and confidence deal in other words. Which begs the question why didn't the government and opposition come to a compromise deal before the vote, there was plenty of opportunity for them to do so. I suppose you must be right about the Swedish Democrats, if the government and the Alliance had to come to a compromise deal it would have passed easily with or without Swedish Democrat support. They failed to reach such a deal therefore it must be the Swedish Democrats who are the 'spoilers'. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 6, 2014 16:16:23 GMT
I'd missed that the Moderaterna still haven't selected a new leader. I'm also surprised to find that Annie Loof is only 32, I thought she was in her early forties.
These early polls still all look a bit odd. I can't believe that only the KDS, FI and SoDems are likely to drop in the vote compared to last time out. I do wonder if FI are losing ground back to V, but I think @benjamin may know more about that scene (I think he informed us about the FI-V relationship last time).
I've just compared the polls last time to the actual general election results, and they were all a bit rubbish. Our own guesswork and speculation might prove to be better!
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Post by Devonian on Dec 6, 2014 17:05:36 GMT
YouGov poll published today, fieldwork 4th - 5th December Numbers in brackets are changes from the general election Social Democratic 29.6% (-1.4) Moderate 23.1% (-0.2) Swedish Democrats 17.7% (+4.8) Green Party 6.9% (nc) Centre Party 5.7% (-0.4) Liberals 5.0% (-0.4) Left 4.7% (-1.0) Christian Democrats 4.2% (-0.4) Feminist Initiative 2.5% (-0.6) www.metro.se/nyheter/efter-regeringskaoset-sd-nara-18-procent/EVHnle!x15Xk3IDeIu4c/ So according to this poll the government are down 1.4% overall, the Alliance are down 1.4% overall and the Swedish Democrats are up 4.8%. I think I'm right in saying this is their highest opinion poll rating ever. If this is confirmed by other polls then it will look like I was right about their voters being pleased with their actions. |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 7, 2014 1:54:23 GMT
Just to illustrate why I suspected that Swedish Democrats voters might not be the kind of people to be annoyed at the early election and might instead be pleased with the party's actions here a a campaign video from the 2014 election
I have to wonder if people who voted for the party depicting itself in the above film would be the kind of people who are pleased that the government has failed to pass its budget and been forced into early elections. I suspect they would be.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 7, 2014 11:00:50 GMT
I should have added that if you want to know what is being said in the above video press play, click on 'settings' at the bottom of the video and set subtitle settings to English
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Post by Devonian on Dec 7, 2014 11:14:06 GMT
Graphic of the above YouGov poll  |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 8, 2014 5:26:13 GMT
Just to illustrate why I suspected that Swedish Democrats voters might not be the kind of people to be annoyed at the early election and might instead be pleased with the party's actions here a a campaign video from the 2014 election I have to wonder if people who voted for the party depicting itself in the above film would be the kind of people who are pleased that the government has failed to pass its budget and been forced into early elections. I suspect they would be. What a horrendous racket of noise! What sort of mentality is it that thinks a loud noise will get more votes? The same sort of mentality as the BNP, I reckon. Nothing like UKIP. Even the voice/accent of the woman talking sounded a bit slurred and sloppy. My knowledge of Scandinavian languages is extremely limited, but even to my ear it sounded more yukky and bumpkiny compared with Norwegian. |
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