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Post by middleenglander on Nov 3, 2014 0:11:24 GMT
It looks like 23 by-elections during November although the one in Orkney on 27th November is contested by 3 Independents and a No Description and will not form part of the prediction competition.
* 2 contests on 6th November
* 7 on the 13th
* 3 on the 20th
* 11 on the 27th including Orkney
9 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 5 on the 4 year cycle last contested in 2011 including 1 single member ward
- 2 now on an annual cycle last contested in May
- 2 in the same authority on an alternate year cycle again last contested in May
5 are in Unitary Authorities
- 3 in the same authority last contested in 2011
- 1 single member last contested in 2013
- 1 on a annual cycle last contested in May
2 are for County Councils last contested in 2013
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs last contested in May
1 is for a London Borough last contested in May
3 are for authorities in Scotland, including Orkney, last contested in 2012
1 is for an authority in Wales also last contested in 2012
Conservatives are defending 9 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor, 5 a resigntion
Labour is defending 11 seats, 2 following a death and 9 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 1 seat following a disqualification
SDP is defending 1 seat following the death of one of its very few councillors
The Orkney seat was previous held by an Independent.
With all nominations now published, the number of candidates standing including in Orkney is
Conservative 22 for the 23 seats, Labour 20, Liberal Democrat 14, UKIP 16, Green 13, Independent 12 contesting 6 seats
SNP 2, Plaid Cymru 1 along with 6 TUSAC, 1 Community Action and 1 No Desciption
a total of 108 candidates.
Predictions on ths thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2014 0:07:40 GMT
Bilton
Con 44
UKIP 21
Lab 20
LD 6
Green 4 ind 4 tusc 1
br]
Cornwall
UKIP 28.1
Con 27.9
Lab 26
LD 12
Green 6
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hedgehog
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Posts: 6,826 
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Post by hedgehog on Nov 5, 2014 19:49:06 GMT
Cornwall ua- mevagissey
Lab 28
Ukip 26
Con 25
Green 14
Lib dem 7
Rugby bc- bilton
Con 36
Lab 22
Ukip 16
Green 10
Lib dem 7 ind 5 tusc 4
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Post by marksenior on Nov 5, 2014 22:02:24 GMT
Cornwall
Con 26 UKIP 25 Lab 24 LD 16 Green 9
Rugby
Con 42 Lab 20 UKIP 20 LD 8 Green 7 TUSC 3
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 5, 2014 22:07:06 GMT
Cornwall
Con 26 UKIP 29 Lab 24 LD 16 Green 5
Rugby
Con 40 Lab 16 UKIP 18 LD 6 Green 6 TUSC 4 Ind 10
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 5, 2014 22:10:19 GMT
I think I'll have a go (seeing as it's only local elections and Rochester this month).
Mevagissey on Cornwall
Lib Dem 27%, Con 24%, Lab 24%, UKIP 22%, Green 4% (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab)
Bilton on Rugby
Con 40%, UKIP 30%, Lab 20%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 2%, TUSC 2% (Con HOLD)
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Post by marksenior on Nov 5, 2014 22:33:32 GMT
Great to see you have a go Harry
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Post by Philip Davies on Nov 5, 2014 23:29:40 GMT
Cornwall - Mevagissey
Christopher Maynard (Liberal Democrat) 12
Katherine Moseley (The Green Party) 6
James Mustoe (Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Charmain Nicholas (Labour Party Candidate) 30
Michael Williams (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 32
Rugby - Bilton
Julie A’Barrow (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39
Kate Crowley (Green Party) 2
Gordon Davies (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 24
Lesley George (Liberal Democrats) 9
John Herman (Independent) 2
Pete McLaren (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
John Wells (Labour Party Candidate) 22
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 6, 2014 1:03:37 GMT
CORNWALL Mevagissey: UKIP 31, Lab 29, C 24, L Dem 11, GP 5.
RUGBY Bilton: C 40, UKIP 20, Lab 16, L Dem 12, Ind 9, GP 2, TUSC 1.
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Post by brianj on Nov 6, 2014 4:41:19 GMT
Cornwall, Mevagissey: Lab 32, UKIP 24, Con 23, LibDem 16, Green 5.
Rugby, Bilton: Con 45, UKIP 24, Lab 16, LibDem 6, Ind 4, TUSC 3, Green 2.
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Post by hempie on Nov 6, 2014 8:03:51 GMT
Cornwall, Mevagissey: UKIP 29, Lab 26, Con 23, LD 14, Green 8
Rugby, Bilton: Con 37, UKIP 20, Lab 18, Green 8, LD 7, TUSC 5, Ind 5
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 6, 2014 9:10:10 GMT
Cornwall: UKIP 28.6 Lab 26.7 Con 23.5 LD 15.6 Grn 5.6 Rugby: Con 40.4 UKIP 22.7 Lab 17.3 Grn 7.0 LD 6.6 Ind 3.7 TUSC 2.3 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 6, 2014 9:19:42 GMT
Cornwall UA - Mevagissey UKIP 27.5% Con 26.5% Lab 23.1% LD 16.7% Grn 6.2% Rugby BC - Bilton Con 40.6% Lab 19.3% UKIP 18.7% LD 7.3% Grn 5.3% Ind 4.9% TUSC 3.9% |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 6, 2014 12:35:09 GMT
11 entries this week with Harry Hayfield returning after a absence of several years along with David Boothroyd and hedgehog who have only been away for a few weeks.
Harry Hayfield and Mark Senior do not have a prediction for the Independent in Rugby but this in itself does not incur additional faults as the total adds to 100%.
Cornwall: 7 UKIP gain from Labour, brianj & hedgehog Labour hold, Mark Senior Conservative gain, Harry Hayfield Liberal Democrat gain
- everyone has the winning margin at 3% or less apart from brianj 8%.
Rugby: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 10% (Harry Hayfield) to 23% (Joe)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 6, 2014 14:20:35 GMT
For the benefit of future reference, it is HARRY HAYFIELD (and not as I have been called in the past, Hurray / Huzzah / Hooray Hayfield)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 6, 2014 15:05:30 GMT
I think Hooray Hayfield sounds quite good - I'd embrace that if I were you
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 6, 2014 15:22:57 GMT
For the benefit of future reference, it is HARRY HAYFIELD (and not as I have been called in the past, Hurray / Huzzah / Hooray Hayfield) Previously i recall calling you Harry Enfield. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 7, 2014 1:21:52 GMT
Cornwall, Megavissey
Mark Senior 19.0 faults, Pete Whitehead 14.5+10, Robert Waller 16.9+10, Joe 21.1+10, Tony Otim 22.7+10, hempie 26.9+10, brianj 27.0+10, Harry Hayfield 26.7+1+10, David Boothroyd 30.9+10, PhilDav 36.9+10, hedgehog 37.0+10
- Harry Hayfield gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101%
Rugby, Bilton
David Boothroyd 16.6 faults, Joe 23.2, brianj 23.8, Tony Otim 25.2, Pete Whitehead 26.7, PhilDav 27.3, Mark Senior 27.5, hempie & Robert Waller 31.9, hedgehog 41.9, Harry Hayfield 42.6
And for the week
46.5 Mark Senior
51.3 Pete Whitehead
54.3 Joe
57.5 David Boothroyd
58.0 Tony Otim
58.9 Robert Waller
60.8 brianj
68.9 hempie
74.2 PhilDav
80.4 Harry Hayfield
88.9 hedgehog
Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday
Seven by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2014 9:24:33 GMT
Congrats to Mark for the week.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 7, 2014 23:01:43 GMT
Now I remember why I gave up on this!
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