Prediction Competition for November 2014

[Robert Waller]

Medway

Ukip 45
Con 33
Lab 15
Green 5
Lib dem 2

Stockport bramhall south and woodhall

Con 44
Lib dem 40
Lab 9
Green 7

Swansea uplands

Green 20
Lab 26
Lib dem 18
Ind may 18
Con 7
Plaid 5
Ind dwan 5
TUSC 1

[Philip Davies]

Medway - Peninsula
Clive Gregory (Green Party) 4.4
Christopher Irvine (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 38.4
Christopher Sams (Liberal Democrat) 5.3
Ron Sands (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33.1
Pete Tungate (Labour Party) 18.8

Stockport - Bramhall South & Woodford
David McDonough (Green Party) 3.6
John McGahan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50.9
Jeremy Meal (Liberal Democrat) 37.2
Kathryn Priestley (Labour Party Candidate) 8.3

Swansea - Uplands
Josh Allard (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 8
Pat Dwan (Independents @ Swansea) 3
Rhydian Fitter (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 3
Fran Griffiths (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 35
Ronnie Job (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Peter May (Independent) 15
Janet Thomas (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 25
Ashley Wakeling (The Green Party - Plaid Werdd) 9

[brianj]

Medway: UKIP 50, Con 26, Lab 14, Green 7, LibDem 3.
Stockport, Bramhall S and Woodhall: LibDem 50, Con 35, Lab 10, Green 5.
Swansea, Uplands: LibDem 27, Lab 24, Green 15, Ind May 12, Con 10, PC 6, Ind Dwan 4, TUSC 2.

[Deleted]

Medway
UKIP 53
Con 28
Lab 12
Green 4
LD 3

Stockport
Con 49
LD 35
Lab 8
Green 8

Swansea
Lab 26
LD 25
Green 18
IND May 14
Con 7
PC 5
Ind Dwan 3
TUSC 2

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MEDWAY Peninsula: UKIP 54, C 22, Lab 14, GP 6, L Dem 4
STOCKPORT Bramhall South and Woodford: C 42, L Dem 33, UKIP 19, Lab 6
SWANSEA Uplands: Lab 33, L Dem 17, Ind May 14, GP 11, C 10, PC 9, Ind Dwan 4, TUSC 2

[marksenior]

Medway UKIP 45 Con 29 Lab 19 Green 5 LD 2
Stockport Con 46 LD 39 Lab 10 Green 5
Swansea Lab 28 Ind May 22 LD 18 Green 15 Con 7 Plaid 6 Ind Dwan 2 Tusc 2

[maxque]

I'll give it a try:

Medway: UKIP 48.8, Con 31.1, Lab 11.3, Grn 5.3, LD 3.4
Stockport: Con 46.2, LD 40.3, Lab 9.1, Grn 4.4
Swansea: Lab 30.2, Grn 24.3, LD 20, Ind May 13.7, Con 6.3, PC 3.5, I@S 1, TUSC 1

[hempie]

Medway, Peninsula: Con 39, UKIP 31, Lab 20, Green 6, LD 4
Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford: Con 43, LD 42, Lab 11, Green 4
Swansea, Uplands: Lab 26, LD 24, Ind May 21, Green 14, Con 6, Plaid 5, Ind Dwan 3, TUSC 1

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 19, 2014 15:55:18 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Stockbort MB - Bramhall South & Woodford

Con 46.9%
LD   37.3%
Lab   9.9%
Grn  5.9%


Medway UA - Peninsula

UKIP 37.9%
Con  34.5%
Lab  20.4%
Grn    4.5%
LD     2.7%


Swansea CC - Uplands

Lab      26.9%
Grn      22.8%
LD        17.5%
Ind M  12.7%
Con       8.4%
PC         6.1%
Ind@S  3.8%
TUSC    1.8%

[Tony Otim]

Nov 18, 2014 15:40:17 GMT Tony Otim said:

Medway:
UkIP 38.0
Con 34.2
Lab 16.7
Grn 8.8
LD 2.3


Stockport:
Con 48.1
LD 35.5
Lab 9.2
Grn 7.2


Swansea:
Lab 30.7
Ind M: 28.9
LD 11.7
Grn 8.2
PC 6.2
Ind D 5.8
Con 5.3
TUSC 3.2

[middleenglander]

11 entries this week with Maxque joining for thye firdt time. David Boothroyd gets 19 additional faults for having an non-existant UKIP candidate in Stockport whilst Maxque gets 0.1 for adding to 99.9% in Medway.

Medway: 10 UKIP gain from Conservative with hempie a Conservative hold
- UKIP mafority ranges from 3.2% (Pete Whitehead to 25% (Joe)
Stockport: 10 Conservative hold, brianj Liberal Democrat gain
- Conservative majority ranges from 1% (hempie) to 14% (Joe)
Swansea: 9 Labour hold, brianj Liberal Democrat gain with hedgehog a Green gain
- runner up taken by 2 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green and 2 Independent May

[middleenglander]

Medway, Peninsula
Maxque 5.9+0.1 faults, Robert Waller 7.7, Joe 13.4, brianj 14.6, Mark Senior 15.7, hedgehog 19.1, Tony Otim 20.5, PhilDav 21.9, Pete Whitehead 22.4, David Boothroyd 22.6, hempie 34.5+10

Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford
PhilDav 9.8 faults, Mark Senior 14.4, Pete Whitehead 14.8, Joe & Maqxque 15.2, Tony Otim 16.0, Robert Waller 18.4, hempie 22.4, hedgehog 31.2, David Boothroyd 24.2+19, brianj 36.4+10

Swansea, Uplands
Tony Otim 17.2+10 faults, Mark Senior 34.1+10, hempie & Robert Waller 37.5+10, David Boothroyd 45.1+10, Pete Whitehead 48.1+10, Joe 48.4+10, PhilDav 49.2+10, brianj 53.2+10, hedgehog 56.2+10, Maxque 58.3+10

and for the week:
Tony Otim 63.7 faults, Robert Waller 73.6, Mark Senior 74.3, Joe 87.1, Maxque 89.6, PhilDav 91.0, Pete Whitehead 95.2, hempie 114.4, hedgehog 116.5, David Boothroyd 120.9, brianj 124.2

and for the first 3 weeks of November:

240.0 Tony Otim
250.4 Robert Waller

257.0 Mark Senior
259.0 Pete Whitehead
283.8 Joe

309.7 PhilDav
318.3 hempie
334.2 David Boothroyd

356.0 brianj
378.0 hedgehog

Harry Hayfield & Maxque have each entered just one week

Objections please by 5 pm Saturday

Amended

There are 12 by-elections next week but only 10 are in the prediction competition
- predictions are not required for the ones in Huntingdonshire or Orkney.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Tony on the week and the month so far.

[Philip Davies]

Nov 21, 2014 11:45:26 GMT middleenglander said:

Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford
PhilDav 9.8 faults, Mark Senior 14.4, Pete Whitehead 14.8, Joe & Maqxque 15.2, Tony Otim 16.0, Robert Waller 18.4, hempie 22.4, hedgehog 31.2, David Boothroyd 24.2+19, brianj 36.4+10

I guess it helps living near and regularly driving through a ward during by-election time although only the Woodford part really. I didn't see any Lib Dem signs, but quite a few Conservative ones.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 21, 2014 13:14:09 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congratulations to Tony on the week and the month so far.

Thanks.

[Robert Waller]

Just to say also that I think Maxque did well in a first entry and hope will take part again.

[hedgehog]

Aberdeenshire
Troop
Snp 46
Con 22
Ind still 11
Green 9
Lib dem 7
Lab 3
Ind mitchell 2

East Yorkshire
Bridlington
Lab 38
Con 32
Ind dealtry 10
Ukip 10
Ind dixon 5
Ind tate 5

East Yorkshire
Howdenshire
Con 43
Lab 36
Ukip 21

East Yorkshire
Willerby and kirk
Con 49
Ukip 31
Lab 20

Hillingdon
Charville
Lab 32
Ukip 30
Local con 21
Lib 14
Tusc 3

Huntingdonshire
St neots
Con 40
Ukip 37
Lab 23

Melton
Asfordby
Con 40
Lab 35
Ukip 25

Midlothian
Snp 40
Lab 26
Con 15
Green 13
Lib 3
Ind 3

Oxford
Blackbird leys
Lab 46
Ukip 24
Green 11
Con 9
Lib 6
Tusc 4

Oxford
Northfield
Lab 50
Green 20
Con 20
Lib 8
Tusc 2

Oxfordshire
The leys
Lab 50
Green 16
Con 13
Ukip 11
Lib 7
Tusc 3

[Robert Waller]

Aberdeenshire
Troup
Snp 50
Con 22
Ind still 10
Green 3
Lib dem 2
Lab 12
Ind mitchell 1

East Yorkshire
Bridlington

Con 32
Ind dealtry 30
Ukip 19
Ind dixon 14
Ind tate 5

East Yorkshire
Howdenshire
Con 45
Lab 15
Ukip 40

East Yorkshire
Willerby and kirk ella
Con 50
Ukip 32
Lab 18

Hillingdon
Charville
Lab 41
Ukip 14
Local con 39
Lib 4
Tusc 2

Melton
Asfordby
Con 40
Lab 34
Ukip 26

Midlothian
Snp 45
Lab 31
Con 10
Green 2
Lib 2
Ind 10

Oxford
Blackbird leys
Lab 60
Ukip 21
Green 4
Con 4
Lib 1
Tusc 10

Oxford
Northfield
Lab 66
Green 9
Con 9
Lib 2
Tusc 14

Oxfordshire
The leys
Lab 60
Green 6
Con 5
Ukip 18
Lib 2
Tusc 9

[Philip Davies]

Aberdeenshire - Troup
Ann BELL (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2
Ross CASSIE (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45
Alan DUFFILL (Scottish Labour Party) 5
Darren DUNCAN (Scottish Green Party) 8
Philip MITCHELL (Independent) 10
Alan STILL (Independent) 10
Iain TAYLOR (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20

East Yorkshire - Bridlington Central and Old Town
John COPSEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38
Liam DEALTRY (Independent) 32
Terry DIXON (Independent) 5
Malcolm MILNS (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Neil TATE (Indepdent) 5

East Yorkshire - Howdenshire
Danny MARTEN (Labour Party Candidate) 20
Clive WADDINGTON (UK Independence Party) 33
Nigel WILKINSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 47

East Yorkshire - Willerby and Kirk Ella
Mick BURCHILL (The Conservative Party candidate) 50
Daniel PALMER (Labour Party Candidate) 20
Robert SKINNER (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 30

Hillingdon - Charville
Cliff DIXON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 17.5
Wally KENNEDY (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2.5
Paul McKEOWN (Liberal Democrats) 2.5
Mary O'CONNOR (Local Conservatives) 33
John OSWELL (Labour Party Candidates) 44.5

Melton - Asfordby
Sacha Lee BARNES (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)) 23
Michael BLASE (Labour Party Candidate) 35
Ronnie de BURLE (Conservative Party Candidate) 42

Midlothian - Midlothian East
Colin CASSIDY (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 49
Euan DAVIDSON (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2
Andrew HARDIE (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 8
Robert HOGG (Independent) 4
Bill KERR-SMITH (Scottish Green Party) 7
Kenny YOUNG (Scottish Labour Party) 30

Oxford - Blackbird Leys
Berk BEKTAS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6
Stella COLLIER (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Lesley MALLINDER (Liberal Democrat) 2.8
Elizabeth McHALE (Green Party) 4.5
Dave SLATER (UK Independence Party) 15.4
Linda SMITH (Labour Party Candidate) 69.3

Oxford - Northfield Brook
Gary DIXON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 9.7
Ann DUNCAN (Green Party) 9
James MORBIN (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Michael TAIT (Liberal Democrat) 5.6
Sian TAYLOR (Labour Party Candidate) 73.7

Oxfordshire - The Leys
Samuel BURGESS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 7
Steve CURRAN (Labour Party Candidate) 65
Ann DUNCAN (Green Party) 8
Lesley MALLINDER (Liberal Democrat) 3
James MORBIN (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Dave SLATER (UK Independence Party) 15

[Deleted]

Bridlington
Con 30
UKIP 29
IND Deakin 22
IND Dixon 16
IND Tate 3

Howdenshire
Con 45
UKIP 40
Lab 15

Willerby and Kirk Ella
Con 55
UKIP 30
Lab 15

Hillingdon
Lab 39
Con 33
UKIP 23
TUSC 3
LD 2

Melton
Con 40
Lab 32
UKIP 28

Blackbird Leys
Lab 58
UKIP 20
TUSC 9
Green 6
Con 5
LD 2

Northfield
Lab 66
Con 11
TUSC 11
Green 9
LD 3

The Leys
Lab 59
UKIP 18
TUSC 9
Green 6
Con 6
LD 2

Aberdeenshire
SNP 53
Con 22
IND STILL 11
SGP 6
Lab 4
LD 2
IND MITCHELL 2

Huntingdonshire
Con 54
UKIP 29.5
Lab 16.5

Midlothian
SNP 55
Lab 22
Con 8
SGP 7
IND 5
LD 3