I have decided to record these results (I made a mess of an earlier attempt) despite them being old, because the data to allow me to do so; polling districts etc will start to become out of date. It’s already becoming difficult. There are caveats to the results of course. Polling boxes split between wards are split equally between them. This only effects a few dozen votes each way at most and doesn’t happen that often. In many seats it doesn’t happen at all.
Postal votes, which are collated by constituency only, are split proportionately however so if the party vote across three wards is 150-100-50, then if there are 100 postal votes cast for that party they are split 50-33-17; i.e the same proportion as the party vote split across the wards.
I had no intention of doing it. I tried to shortcut it and messed it up. Then I realised that in order to get some of the polling district data I was having to go to the WebArchive to find the information so I thought, why risk loosing it? So I walked through the data one seat at a time (I have split ward results by seat too)
It's not perfect, especially with allocating postal votes, but it's a consistent method at least. The rural areas are surprisingly uniform in terms of support. Urban areas; Labour areas especially have interesting pockets. Both Bearsden wards were 4 way tussles and I'm surprised that the Tories could still top one of those wards and come close second in the other.
It might help with taking another shot at present and past notionals, particularly in rural areas.
Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 17, 2014 20:47:54 GMT
Having ballot box subtotals for that election was anorak heaven. Some snippets I found: Strathkelvin & Bearsden was the only seat where 5 different candidates won ballot boxes (Ind/Lab/Con/SNP/LD). 8 seats had 4 different ballot box winners: Cunninghame North (Ind/Lab/Con/SNP), and 2 in Aberdeen and 5 in Edinburgh with Lab/Con/SNP/LD. In 3 seats, one party won all the boxes: Lab in Motherwell and in Pollok, LDs in Shetland.
“If the brain were so simple we could understand it, we would be so simple we couldn't.” (Lyall Watson)
Where did you find results for individual ballots? Could this also be done for the 2011 election (or was it simply a formality due to the STV local council election)?
It was an old spreadsheet released back in 2008. I never did anything with it until I realised that the opportunity to format the results this way could be lost. nothing was released for 2011 because it was counted by hand, but the same data exists at polling district level for the 2012 locals. It is possible to use the data to make a bit of guesstimate for 2011 but that's all.
I used swings per seat 2007-2011 (using actual polling district based notional results) and for 1992, I was able to group together wards and part wards into the old seats and reapportion the vote. 1992 is really a shot in the dark, but it does tally up well with party strengths at Regional Council level.
Once I get the votes in a spreadsheet, I'll post them here.