Prediction Competition for October 2014

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to mark for the week.

[brianj]

Ewwww.

Argyll & Bute. Oban North and Lorn: Ind 40, SNP 28, Lab 19, Con 13.
Chichester, Rogate: Con 75, UKIP 25.
Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton: DInd 46, Lab 32, Con 17, Green 5.
Durham, Evenwood: Lab 32, UKIP 26, Con 20, Ind 15, Green 7.
Forest of Dean, Newnham & Westbury: Con 37, UKIP 28, LD 12, Green 9, Lab 8, Ind 6.
Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean: Con 39, UKIP 25, LD 11, Lab 10, Green 9, Ind 6.
Mid Sussez, Hayward Heath Lucastes: Con 52, UKIP 18, LD 16, Lab 14.
Shepway, Folkestone Harvey West: UKIP 36, Con 33, LD 16, Lab 10, Green 5.

[Robert Waller]

Argyll & Bute. Oban North and Lorn: Ind 22, SNP 30, Lab 26, Con 22.
Chichester, Rogate: Con 62, UKIP 38.
Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton: DInd 44, Lab 46, Con 7, Green 3.
Durham, Evenwood: Lab 38, UKIP 26, Con 28, Ind 5, Green 3
Forest of Dean, Newnham & Westbury: Con 36, UKIP 20, LD 5, Green 4, Lab 17, Ind 18.
Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean: Con 29, UKIP 20, LD 6, Lab 10, Green 4, Ind 31.
Mid Sussez, Hayward Heath Lucastes: Con 43, UKIP 27, LD 15, Lab 15.
Shepway, Folkestone Harvey West: UKIP 28, Con 33, LD 25, Lab 12, Green 2.

[Philip Davies]

Argyll & Bute - Oban North & Lorn
Kieron Green (Scottish Labour Party) 16.3
Stephanie Irvine (Independent) 29.9
Iain Maclean (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 30.8
Andrew Vennard (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 23

Chichester - Rogate
Gillian Keegan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 65.4
Elena McCloskey (UK Independence Party) 34.6

Durham - Burnopfield & Dipton
Alan Booth (The Conservative Party Candidate) 8.6
Gill Burnett (Derwentside Independents) 46.7
Joanne Carr (Labour Party Candidate) 37.8
Melanie Howd (The Green Party) 6.9

Durham - Evenwood
Lee Carnighan (Independent) 13.1
Ben Casey (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 23.1
Stephen Hugill (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16.5
Greg Robinson (The Green Party) 6.9
Heather Smith (Labour Party Candidate) 40.4

Forest of Dean - Newnham & Westbury
Richard Boyles (The Conservative Party Candidate) 25
Peter Foster (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Ian King (Liberal Democrat) 6
Sid Phelps (Green Party) 5
Simon Phelps (Independent) 32
Jenny Shaw (Labour Party Candidate) 12

Gloucestershire - Mitcheldean
Malcolm Berry (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 19.4
Jackie Fraser (Labour Party Candidate) 11.4
Sue Henchley (Liberal Democrat) 6.2
Ken Power (Green Party) 3.4
Brian Robinson (The Conservative Party Candidate) 26.8
Ian Whitburn (Independent) 32.8

Mid Sussex - Haywards Heath Lucastes
Nicholas Chapman (Liberal Democrat) 20
Henry Fowler (Labour Party Candidate) 14.2
Marc Montgomery (UKIP) 22.2
Geoffrey Rawlinson (The Conservative Party Candidate) 43.6

Shepway - Folkestone Harvey West
Helen Barker (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33
Jasmine Heywood (The Green Party) 4.7
Stephen Jardine (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 24.4
Nicola Keen (Labour Party Candidate) 19.5
Hugh Robertson-Ritchie (Liberal Democrat) 18.4

[Deleted]

Burnopfield
Lab 49
DerwentInd 39
Con 8
Green 4

Evenwood
Lab 37
Ukip 26
Con 24
ind 9
green 4

Folkestone
Con 35
ukip 25
Lab 19
ld 17
green 4

Mid Sussex
Con 43
ukip 24
ld 20
lab 13

Rogate
Con 72
ukip 28

gluocestershire
Con 29
ind 28
ukip 21
lab 11
ld 7
green 4

forest of dean
ind 32
con 25
ukip 17
lab 15
Green 7
ld 4

[Deleted]

Oban
SNP 34
Lab 25
Ind 23
Con 18

[hempie]

Argyll & Bute. Oban North and Lorn: SNP 30, Lab 26, Ind 23, Con 21
Chichester, Rogate: Con 78, UKIP 22
Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton: DInd 43, Lab 42, Con 12, Green 3
Durham, Evenwood: Lab 36, UKIP 33, Con 20, Ind 8, Green 3
Forest of Dean, Newnham & Westbury: Con 34, Ind 16, UKIP 15, Lab 15, LD 10, Green 10
Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean: Con 32, UKIP 26, Ind 20, Lab 11, LD 7,Green 4
Mid Sussez, Hayward Heath Lucastes: Con 40, LD 27, UKIP 23, Lab 10
Shepway, Folkestone Harvey West: Con 32, UKIP 25, LD 19 Lab 19, Green 5

[marksenior]

Argyll SNP 32 Ind 26 Lab 23 Con 19
Chichester Con 66 UKIP 34
Durham Burnopfield Ind 48 Lab 36 Con 12 Green 4
Durham Evenwood Lab 36 Con 26 UKIP 20 Ind 15 Green 3
F Dean Con 32 Ind 21 UKIP 20 Lab 16 LD 6 Green 5
Glos Con 31 Ind 24 UKIP 20 Lab 15 LD 5 Green 5
Mid Sussex Con 44 UKIP 29 LD 15 Lab 12
Shepway Con 35 UKIP 33 Lab 15 LD 13 Green 4

[Tony Otim]

Oct 21, 2014 14:58:53 GMT Tony Otim said:

Argyll & Bute:
Ind 31.7
SNP 31.1
Lab 21.4
Con 15.8


Chichester:
Con 55.6
UKIP 44.4


Durham - Burnopfield & dipton:
Lab - 43.0
DI - 39.3
Con 12.2
Grn 5.5


Durham - Everwood
Lab 40.2
UKIP 29.8
Con 21.3
Ind 5.7
Grn 3.0


Forest of Dean
Ind 28.8
UKIP 26.7
Con 23.6
Lab 9.4
Grn 7.9
LD 3.6


Glos;
Ind 33.1
UKIP 25.6
Con 20.8
Lab 10.8
Grn 5.5
LD 4.2


Mid Sussex:
Con 47.7
UKIP 25.4
LD 16.4
Lab 10.5


Shepway:
Con 35.8
UKIP 31.3
Lab 19.5
LD 8.2
Grn 5.2

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 22, 2014 12:03:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Gloucestershire CC - Mitcheldean

Con  30.1%
UKIP 24.5%
Ind   23.1%
Lab   12.9%
LD      6.6%
Grn    2.8%


Durham UA - Burnopfield & Dipton

D Ind 47.1%
Lab    41.2%
Con     8.8%
Grn     2.9%


Durham UA - Evenwood

Lab    33.5%
Con   26.4%
UKIP 21.3%
Ind    16.2%
Grn     2.6%


Chichester DC - Rogate

Con   72.8%
UKIP 27.2%


Forest of Dean DC - Newnham & Westbury

Ind   34.6%
Con  24.2%
UKIP 16.1%
Lab   10.7%
LD      8.9%
Grn    5.5%


Mid Sussex DC - Haywards Heath Lucastes

Con   45.8%
UKIP 24.2%
LD     20.2%
Lab     9.8%


Shepway DC - Folkestone West

Con  37.7%
UKIP 24.7%
Lab   17.8%
LD     15.1%
Grn     4.7%


Argyll & Bute - Oban North & Lorn

Ind   38.9%
SNP  28.1%
Lab  18.6%
Con 14.4%

[middleenglander]

8 entries that were all ship-shape and Bristol fashion.

Argyll & Bute: 5 SNP lead on 1st preference, brianj, Pete Whitehead & Tony Otim have the Independent ahead
Chichester: 100% Conservative hold
Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton: 5 Derwentside Independent hold, Joe, Robert Waller & Tony Otim a Labour gain
Durham, Evenwood: 100% Labour hold
Forest of Dean: 4 Independent hold, brianj, hempie, Mark Senior & Robert Waller Conservative gain
Gloucestershire: 5 Conservative gain, PhilDav, Robert Waller & Tony Otim Independent hold
Mid Sussex: 100% Conservative hold
Shepway: 7 Conservative hold, brianj UKIP gain

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Joe for the week and Pete overall.

[middleenglander]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn
Joe 15.1 faults, Mark Senior 17.8, hempie 23.1, Robert Waller 25.1, PhilDav 27.4, Tony Otim 19.6+10, brianj 32.8+10, Pete Whitehead 30.6+10

Chichester, Rogate
Joe 1.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 3.1, brianj 7.5, Mark Senior 10.5, PhilDav 11.7, hempie 13.5, Robert Waller 18.5, Tony Otim 31.3

Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton
Robert Waller 4.9 faults, Joe 12.9, Tony Otim 14.7, Pete Whitehead 10.8+10, hempie 12.6+10, PhilDav 14.1+10, Mark Senior 19.0 +10, brianj 25.7+10

Durham, Evenwood
Robert Waller 9.5 faults, Joe 11.7, Mark Senior 14.9, Pete Whitehead 17.3, Tony Otim 20.5, PhilDav 22.3, hempie 23.7, brianj 27.7

Forest of Dean, Newnham & Westbury
Joe 17.6 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.5, PhilDav 21.6, Tony Otim 30.1, Mark Senior 41.8+10, hempie 45.0+10, Robert Waller 49.8+10, brianj 73.0+10

Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean
hempie 13.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.5, Mark Senior 20.8, Joe 21.6, brianj 26.7, Robert Waller 25.6+10, PhilDav 30.1+10, Tony Otim 39.4+10

Mid Sussex, Haywards Heath Lucastes
brianj 16.5 faults, Tony Otim 17.4, Pete Whitehead 21.2, Mark Senior 24.8, PhilDav 25.6, Joe & Robert Waller 26.8, hempie 32.8

Shepway, Folkestone Harvey West
Robert Waller 14.3 faults, hempie & Joe 27.2, Pete Whitehead 27.4, PhilDav 28.2, Mark Senior 29.8, Tony Otim 35.4, brianj 25.8+10

and for this week's 8 results
Joe 134.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 169.5, Robert Waller 194.4, Mark Senior 199.5, PhilDav 201.1, hempie 211.5, Tony Otim 228.6, brianj 275.7

and the month to date

724.9 Pete Whitehead
740.2 Joe

776.5 Mark Senior
798.9 Robert Waller

830.7 PhilDav
862.9 Tony Otim

865.3 hempie
1120.4 brianj

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 5 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Joe for the week.

[hempie]

An early prediction as I'm away for a few days now, a real stab with a pin this week (isn't it always)

Castle Point BC - Canvey Island East
Colin Letchford (Independent) 10%
Chas Mumford (Conservative Party)20%
John Payne (Canvey Island Independent Party) 60%
Jackie Reilly (Labour Party) 10%


Neath Port Talbot - Sandfields East
Matthew Crowley (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 73%
Richard Minshull (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate)4%
Keith Suter (UK Independence Party (UKIP))23%


North Ayrshire - North Coast and Cumbraes
Drew Cochrane (Independent) 18%
Toni Dawson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20%
Meilan Henderson (UK Independence Party (UKIP))8%
Grace McLean (Scottish National Party (SNP))33%
Valerie Reid (Scottish Labour Party)21%


Telford & Wrekin - Ironbridge Gorge
Elizabeth Mollett (The Conservative Party Candidate) 37%
Richard Soame (UK Independence Party (UKIP))20%
Ken Stringer (The Labour Party Candidate)43%


Telford & Wrekin - Newport West

Warwick McKenzie (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 18%
Phil Norton (The Labour Party Candidate)30%
Rodney Pitt (The Conservative Party Candidate) 42%
Peter Scott (Independent)10%

[Robert Waller]

Castle Point BC - Canvey Island East
Colin Letchford (Independent) 10%
Chas Mumford (Conservative Party)18%
John Payne (Canvey Island Independent Party) 62%
Jackie Reilly (Labour Party) 10%


Neath Port Talbot - Sandfields East
Matthew Crowley (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 70%
Richard Minshull (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate)3%
Keith Suter (UK Independence Party (UKIP))27%


North Ayrshire - North Coast and Cumbraes
Drew Cochrane (Independent) 17%
Toni Dawson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 14%
Meilan Henderson (UK Independence Party (UKIP))5%
Grace McLean (Scottish National Party (SNP))47%
Valerie Reid (Scottish Labour Party)17%


Telford & Wrekin - Ironbridge Gorge
Elizabeth Mollett (The Conservative Party Candidate) 37%
Richard Soame (UK Independence Party (UKIP))20%
Ken Stringer (The Labour Party Candidate)43%


Telford & Wrekin - Newport West

Warwick McKenzie (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20%
Phil Norton (The Labour Party Candidate)21%
Rodney Pitt (The Conservative Party Candidate) 49%
Peter Scott (Independent)10%

[Philip Davies]

Castle Point - Canvey Island East
Colin Letchford (Independent) 11
Chas Mumford (Conservative Party) 19
John Payne (Canvey Island Independent Party) 57.6
Jackie Reilly (Labour Party)  12.4

Neath Port Talbot - Sandfields East
Matthew Crowley (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 70.8
Richard Minshull (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 10
Keith Suter (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 19.2

North Ayrshire - North Coast and Cumbraes
Drew Cochrane (Independent) 15
Toni Dawson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 17
Meilan Henderson (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 7
Grace McLean (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 47
Valerie Reid (Scottish Labour Party) 14

Telford & Wrekin - Ironbridge Gorge
Elizabeth Mollett (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38
Richard Soame (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 16
Ken Stringer (The Labour Party Candidate) 46

Telford & Wrekin - Newport West
Warwick McKenzie (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 20
Phil Norton (The Labour Party Candidate) 28
Rodney Pitt (The Conservative Party Candidate) 47
Peter Scott (Independent) 5

[marksenior]

Castle Point CIIP 56 Con 22 Lab 12 Ind 10
Neath Lab 71 UKIP 25 Con 4
N Ayrshire SNP 48 Lab 16 Con 16 Ind 14 UKIP 6
Telford Ironbridge Con 41 Lab 37 UKIP 22
Telford Newport W Con 51 UKIP 23 Lab 22 Ind 4

[brianj]

Just another wild stab in the dark...

Castle Point, Canvey Island East: CIIP 62, Con 18, Lab 12, Ind 8.
Neath Port Talbot, Sandfields East: Lab 58, UKIP 23, Con 19.
North Ayrshire, North Coast and Cumbraes: SNP 49, Lab 20, Con 13, Ind 10, UKIP 8.
Telford & Wrekin, Ironbridge Gorge: Lab 54, UKIP 30, Con 16.
Telford & Wrekin, Newport West: Con 42, Lab 32, UKIP 22, Ind 4.

[Deleted]

Canvey Island
CIIP 63
Con 19
Lab 10
IND 8

Ironbridge Gorge
Lab 40
Con 35
UKIP 25

Newport West
Con 49
Lab 23
UKIP 24
Ind 4

Wales
Lab 66
UKIP 30
Con 4

Scotland
SNP 42
Con 20
Lab 18
IND 15
UKIP 5