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Post by middleenglander on Sept 29, 2014 22:45:11 GMT
It looks like 34 by-elections during October with one contest for 2 seats:
* 6 contests for 7 seats on 2nd October
* 5 on 9th October
* 10 on 16th October
* 8 on 23rd October
* 5 on 30th October
14 of the contests are for district councils, including the one for 2 seats
- 9 (for 10 seats) in wards with 4 yearly elections last held in 2011 although 2 had by-elections in 2012
- 5 in wards with annual elections last held in 2014
8 are in Unitary elections
- 6 in wards with 4 yearly elections last held in 2011
- 2 in wards with 4 yearly elections last held in 2012
3 in County Councils last held in 2013
2 in Metropolitan Boroughs last held in 2014
2 in London Boroughs last held in 2014
3 in Welsh Councils last held in 2012
2 in Scottish Councils last held in 2012 althoughg there was a by-election earlier this year in one
Conservatives are defending 15 seats in 14 wards,
-7 arising from the death of the former councillor, 7 from a resignation (1 sitting as UKIP) and 1 a disqualification
Labour is defending 8 seats, 7 following a death (1 sitting as Liberal Democrat) and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 2 seats, both arising from the death of the same former councillor
SNP is defending 1 seat following a death
UKIP is defending 2 seats, both following resignations
Residents are defending 2 seats, 1 following a resignation and 1 a disqualification
Independents are defending 5 seats, all following a death including one former councillor elected only 10 days earlier
With all nominations now available :
Conservatives are contesting all 35 seats, Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 19, UKIP 27, Green 14 as well as 17 Independents contesting 14 wards
2 SNP and 1 each for Canvey Island Independent, Llandaff North Independent, Derwentside Independent, BNP, English Democrat, Justice, OMRLP and TUSAC
a total of 151 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.
The South Northamptonshire, Grange Park election on 2nd October is for 2 seats. There are 2 Conservative candidates, 2 UKIP and 1 Labour. Predictions should be based on the average vote for each of the 3 parties with candidates.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 1, 2014 21:12:52 GMT
Cardiff - Llandaff North - Siobhan Corria (Labour) resigned over "culture, attitude and sexism" in the Labour Party.
David Coggins Cogan (Llandaff North Independents) 24%
Peter Hudson (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4
Ann Rowland-James (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiad Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 14
Susan White (Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru) 45
Simon Zeigler (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 13
Cumbria CC - Windermere - Jo Stephenson (Liberal Democrat) died.
Ben Berry (The Conservative Party Candidate) 21
Gwen Harrison (Green Party) 8
Colin Jones (Liberal Democrats) 66
Robert Judson (Independent) 5
South Lakeland DC - Windermere Town - Jo Stephenson (Liberal Democrat) died.
Gwen Harrison (Green Party) 10
Dyan Jones (Liberal Democrats) 76
Sandra Lilley (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
Haringey LB - Woodside - Pat Egan (Labour) died.
Dawn Barnes (Liberal Democrats) 13
Tom Davidson (Green Party) 8
Pauline Gibson (Independent) 4
Scott Green (The Conservative Party Candidate) 8
Vivek Lehal (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1
Andrew Price (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Charles Wright (Labour Party Candidate) 61
South Northamptonshire DC - Grange Park - Tharik Jainu-Deen and Mark Davidson (Conservatives) resigned, because they moved respectively to North Yorkshire and Sunderland
(UKIP)) 26
(The Conservative Party Candidates) 59
Ian Grant (Labour Party Candidate) 15
South Tyneside MB - Westoe - Jane McBride (Independent) died.
Tony Bengtsson (Green Party) 2
Norman Dennis (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 40
Katharine Maxwell (Labour Party Candidate) 43
Edward Russell (The Conservative Party Candidate) 13
Carole Troupe (Liberal Democrats) 2
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 1, 2014 21:30:05 GMT
Haringey LB - Woodside - Pat Egan (Labour) died. Dawn Barnes (Liberal Democrats) 13 Tom Davidson (Green Party) 8 Pauline Gibson (Independent) 4 Scott Green (The Conservative Party Candidate) 8 Vivek Lehal (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1 Andrew Price (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5 Charles Wright (Labour Party Candidate) 61 And yes Devonian's favourite ex councillor Pauline Gibson is back for another attempt .... She could well finish last. I'd be surprised if TUSC didn't beat her, given that she has no connection with the ward and TUSC polled relatively well in Haringey back in May . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 23:41:17 GMT
Cardiff
Lab 45
IND 21
UKIP 17
LD 12
Con 5
South Lakeland
LD 72
Con 15
Green 13
Cumbria
LD 66
Con 19
Green 11
IND 4
South Northants
Con 56
UKIP 29
Lab 15
Haringey
Lab 59.5
Green 11.5
LD 10
UKIP 8
Con 7
TUSC 2.5
Ind 1.5
Westoe
UKIP 42.5
Lab 41
Con 12
Green 2.5
LD 2
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Post by brianj on Oct 2, 2014 1:47:09 GMT
Cardiff, Llandaff North: ind 38, Lab 32, LibDem 15, UKIP 10, PC 5.
Cumbria, Windermere: LibDem 65, Con 25, Ind 6, Green 4.
South Lakeland, Windermere: LibDem 68, Con 25, Green 7.
Haringey, Woodside: Lab 64, UKIP 11, Green 9, Con 7, LibDem 5, Ind 3, TUSC 1.
South Northamptonshire, Grange Park: Con1 28, Con2 26, UKIP1 21, UKIP2 19, Lab 6.
South Tyneside, Westoe: UKIP 45, Lab 34, Con 13, LibDem 5, Green 3.
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Post by hempie on Oct 2, 2014 7:20:19 GMT
Cardiff, Llandaff North: Lab 42, LD 23, Llandaff North Ind 16, UKIP 10, Con 9
Cumbria, Windermere: LD 60, Con 28, Green 7, Ind 5
South Lakeland, Windermere: LD 72, Con 19, Green 9
Haringey, Woodside: Lab 51, LD 17, Green 10,Con 8,UKIP 9,TUSC 4,Ind 1
South Northamptonshire, Grange Park: Con 58, UKIP 30, Lab 12
South Tyneside, Westoe: Lab 41, UKIP 38, Con 14, LD 4, Green 3
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 2, 2014 7:53:52 GMT
Cardiff - Llandaff North
David Coggins Cogan (Llandaff North Independents) 20
Peter Hudson (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Ann Rowland-James (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiad Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 12
Susan White (Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru) 53
Simon Zeigler (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10
Cumbria - Windermere
Ben Berry (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
Gwen Harrison (Green Party) 10
Colin Jones (Liberal Democrats) 65
Robert Judson (Independent) 10
South Lakeland - Windermere Town
Gwen Harrison (Green Party) 10
Dyan Jones (Liberal Democrats) 75
Sandra Lilley (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
Haringey - Woodside
Dawn Barnes (Liberal Democrats) 10
Tom Davidson (Green Party) 6
Pauline Gibson (Independent) 1.5
Scott Green (The Conservative Party Candidate) 8
Vivek Lehal (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2.5
Andrew Price (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 7.5
Charles Wright (Labour Party Candidate) 64.5
South Northamptonshire - Grange Park
Katie Chick (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) / Peter Conquest (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 35
Simon Clifford (The Conservative Party Candidate) / Adil Sadygov (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50
Ian Grant (Labour Party Candidate) 15
South Tyneside - Westoe
Tony Bengtsson (Green Party) 5
Norman Dennis (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 32
Katharine Maxwell (Labour Party Candidate) 46
Edward Russell (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
Carole Troupe (Liberal Democrats) 3
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Post by marksenior on Oct 2, 2014 7:55:09 GMT
Cardiff Lab 38 Ind 24 LD 23 UKIP 8 Con 7
Cumbria LD 66 Con 24 Green 6 Ind 4
S Lakeland LD 71 Con 21 Green 8
Haringey Lab 51 LD 15 Green 11 UKIP 10 Con 8 TUSC 3 Ind 2
S Northants Con 54 UKIP 29 Lab 17
S Tyneside Lab 43 UKIP 36 Con 13 Green 5 LD 3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 2, 2014 8:25:17 GMT
Cardiff: Lab 45.2 LNI 23.4 LD 13.8 UKIP 9.5 Con 8.1 Cumbria: LD 65.4 Con 17.8 Ind 8.7 Grn 8.1 South Lakeland: LD 75.8 Con 14.4 Grn 9.8 Haringey: Lab 55.6 LD 12.1 Grn 8.6 UKIP 7.8 Con 7.2 Ind 6.1 TUSC 2.6 South Northants: Con 43.6 UKIP 42.7 Lab 13.7 (possibility of split result) South Tyneside: Lab 44.2 UKIP 38.0 Con 12.1 LD 3.5 Grn 2.2 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2014 11:02:06 GMT
Haringey LB - Woodside Lab 57.8% LD 10.9% Grn 9.9% Con 9.2% UKIP 8.7% TUSC 2.4% Ind 1.1% South Tyneside MB - Westoe UKIP 41.7% Lab 40.8% Con 12.3% Grn 2.8% LD 2.4% Cumbria CC - Windermere LD 61.7% Con 25.7% Ind 8.5% Grn 4.1% South Lakeland DC - Windermere Town LD 73.8% Con 18.6% Grn 7.6% South Nothamptonshire DC - Grange Park Con 53.9% UKIP 30.8% Lab 15.3% Cardiff CC - Llandaff North Lab 41.6% LNI 17.7% UKIP 16.6% LD 15.8% Con 8.3% |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 2, 2014 22:10:57 GMT
Just 8 entries this week with brianj getting 5 additional faults for a non-existant Plid candidate in Cardill but no Conservative.
Cardiff: 7 Lab hold, brianj Llandaff Independent gain
Cumbria: 100% LD hold
Haringey: 100% Lab hold
South Lakeland: 100% LD hold
South Northants: 100% Con hold although tonyotim thinks may be a split result
South Tyneside: 5 lab gain from Independent with brianj, Joe and Pete Whitehead a UKIP gain
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 2, 2014 22:29:54 GMT
Subject to verification
Cardiff, Llandaff North
Tony Otim 13.7 faults, PhilDav 14.8, Robert Waller 17.5, Joe 20.3, Pete Whitehead 28.5, Mark Senior 32.2, hempie 33.8, brianj 49.2+10+5
Cumbria, Windermere
hempie 24.8 faults, Pete Whitehead 27.4, brianj 28.8, Mark Senior 34.8, Robert Waller 38.8, Tony Otim 43.2, Joe 44.8, PhilDav 48.8
Haringey, Woodside
hempie 17.4 faults, Tony Otim 18.0, Pete Whitehead 19.0, Robert Waller 19.6, Joe 20.8, Mark Senior 21.4, PhilDav 25.0, brianj 31.8
South Lakeland, Windermere Town
brianj 8.0 faults, Mark Senior 14.6, hempie 18.6, Pete Whitehead 19.6, Joe & PhilDav 26.6, Tony Otim 27.8, Robert Waller 28.6
South Northants, Grange Park
Robert Waller 22.1 faults, Joe & Mark Senior 28.1, hempie 30.1, Pete Whitehead 31.7, Phil Dav 40.1, brianj 50.1, Tony Otim 55.5
South Tyneside, Westoe
Pete Whitehead 7.4 faults, Joe 9.4, brianj 13.1, Robert Waller 10.3+10, hempie 10.8+10, Mark Senior 11.3+10, Tony Otim 14.7+10, PhilDav 18.8+10
and for the week
133.6 Pete Whitehead
145.6 hempie
146.9 Robert Waller
150.0 Joe
152.6 Mark Senior
183.0 Tony Otim
184.1 Phil Dav
196.1 brianj
Objection please by noon Saturday.
There are 6 by-elections next week. Predictions on tjhis thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 3, 2014 10:39:48 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 8, 2014 20:33:36 GMT
Blackpool BC - Waterloo - Tony Lee (Conservative) died
John Braithwaite (UK Independence Party) 26%
Kathy Ellis (Labour Party Candidate) 40
Mike Hodkinson (Liberal Democrat) 3
Jack Renshaw (British National Party) 3
Derek Robertson (Conservative Party) 28
Chelmsford BC - Bicknacre and East and West Hanningfield - Michael Harris (Conservative) died
Matt Flack (The Conservative Party Candidate) 54
Reza Hossain (Green Party Candidate) 3
David Kirkwood (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 29
Tony Lees (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Andy Robson (Liberal Democrat) 4
Crawley BC - Southgate - Karl Williamson (UKIP, elected as Conservative) resigned due to work commitments
2011-2015 term
Simon Darroch (UKIP) 22
Arshad Khan (Justice Party) 2.5
Michael Pickett (Labour Party Candidate) 38
Jan Tarrant (The Conservative Party Candidate) 37.5
Essex CC - Brightlingsea - Roger Lord (UKIP) resigned after Douglas Carswell defection made him lose his PPC position
Carol Carlsson Browne (Labour Party Candidate) 12
Alan Goggin (Conservative Party Candidate) 25
Beverley Maltby (Green Party) 3
Anne Poonian (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 27
Gary Scott (Liberal Democrats) 33
Rushmoor BC - West Heath - Malcolm Small (UKIP) resigned after being sentenced to a suspended sentence for arson (he burnt clothes belonging to his wife during an argument over attendance to the Mayor’s Valentine’s Day Ball)
2012-2015 term
Dave Bell (UKIP) 40
Charlie Fraser-Fleming (Liberal Democrat) 8
Sue Gadsby (Labour Party Candidate) 16
Brian Parker (Conservative Party) 36
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Post by marksenior on Oct 8, 2014 21:50:54 GMT
Blackpool Lab 37 Con 31 UKIP 23 LD 7 BNP 2
Chelmsford Con 52 UKIP 22 Lab 13 LD 10 Green 3
Crawley Lab 39 Con 33 UKIP 24 Justice 4
Essex UKIP 33 LD 30 Con 24 Lab 10 Green 3
Rushmoor UKIP 37 Con 31 Lab 20 LD 12
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 22:29:52 GMT
Blackpool Lab 39 Con 28 UKIP 26 LD 5 (96) BNP 3
Chelmsford Con 46 UKIP 37 Lab 8 LD 5 Green 4
Crawley Lab 39 Con 32 UKIP 26 Justice 3
Essex LD 29 Con 28 UKIP 28 Lab 11 Green 4
Rushmoor UKIP 42 Con 38 Lab 11 LD 9
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 8, 2014 22:35:10 GMT
Blackpool - Waterloo
John Braithwaite (UK Independence Party) 26
Kathy Ellis (Labour Party Candidate) 43
Mike Hodkinson (Liberal Democrat) 5
Jack Renshaw (British National Party) 2
Derek Robertson (Conservative Party) 24
Chelmsford - Bicknacre & East & West Hanningfield
Matt Flack (The Conservative Party Candidate) 46
Reza Hossain (Green Party Candidate) 2.5
David Kirkwood (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 33.5
Tony Lees (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Andy Robson (Liberal Democrat) 8
Crawley - Southgate
Simon Darroch (UKIP) 20.8
Arshad Khan (Justice Party) 1.5
Michael Pickett (Labour Party Candidate) 41.6
Jan Tarrant (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36.1
Essex - Brigthlingsea
Carol Carlsson Browne (Labour Party Candidate) 12
Alan Goggin (Conservative Party Candidate) 28
Beverley Maltby (Green Party) 3
Anne Poonian (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 32
Gary Scott (Liberal Democrats) 25
Rushmoor - West Heath
Dave Bell (UKIP) 39.4
Charlie Fraser-Fleming (Liberal Democrat) 6.8
Sue Gadsby (Labour Party Candidate) 18.4
Brian Parker (Conservative Party) 35.4
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Post by brianj on Oct 8, 2014 23:02:09 GMT
Blackpool, Waterloo: Lab 39, Con 28, UKIP 20, LD 7, BNP 6.
Chelmsford, Bicknacre etc.: Con 47, UKIP 29, Lab 15, Green 5, LD 4.
Crawley, Southgate: UKIP 35, Lab 32, Con 30, Justice 3.
Essex, Brightlingsea: UKIP 32, LibDem 28, Con 27, Lab 10, Green 3.
Rushmoor, West Heath: Con 38, UKIP 28, Lab 24, LibDem 10.
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Post by hempie on Oct 9, 2014 7:04:59 GMT
Blackpool, Waterloo: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 18, LD 10, BNP 4
Chelmsford, Bicknacre & East & West Hanningfield: Con 54, UKIP 18, Lab 14, LD 10, Green 4
Crawley, Southgate: Lab 41, Con 32, UKIP 26, Justice 1
Essex, Brightlingsea: UKIP 29, LD 27, Con 26, Lab 13, Green 5
Rushmoor, West Heath: UKIP 39, Con 34,Lab 18, LD 9
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 9, 2014 8:16:52 GMT
Blackpool: Lab 38.2 Con 29.2 UKIP 21.6 LD 6.5 BNP 4.5 Chelmsford: Con 50.1 UKIP 29.2 Lab 10.1 LD 5.5 Grn 5.1 Crawley: Lab 36.8 Con 34.2 UKIP 25.8 JP 3.2 Essex: LD 30.8 UKIP 27.6 Con 27.5 Lab 10.2 Grn 3.9 Rushmoor: UKIP 44.1 Con 33.9 Lab 14.8 LD 7.2 |
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