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Post by middleenglander on Oct 9, 2014 10:32:37 GMT
8 entries again this week with Joe getting 1 addition fault for adding to 101% in Blackpool
Blackpool: 100% Labour gain from Conservative in a 2011 split ward: majority ranges from 2% over Conservative (hempie) to 17% over UKIP (PhilDav)
Chelmsford: 100% Conservative hold: majority over UKIP ranges from 9% (Joe) to 36% (hempie)
Crawley: 7 Labour gain from Conservative sitting as UKIP, brianj a UKIP win: Labour majority over Conservative ranges from ½% (Robert Waller) to 9% (hempie)
Essex: 4 UKIP hold, Joe, Robert Waller & Tony Otim Liberal Democrat gain, Pete Whitehead Conservative gain
Rushmoor: 7 UKIP hold, brianj Conservative gain: UKIP majority over Conservative ranges from 2.6% (Pete Whitehead) to 10.2% (Tony Otim)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 10:47:27 GMT
link to prediction compHope you don't mind me butting in We are running a prediction comp today. for the parliamentary by elections A small prize available thought folks here maybe interested
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 9, 2014 13:27:08 GMT
Essex CC - Brightlingsea Con 30.2% LD 26.8% UKIP 26.2% Lab 13.1% Grn 3.7% Blackpool UA - Waterloo Lab 36.7% Con 27.1% UKIP 26.7% LD 5.7% BNP 3.8% Chemsford BC - Bicknacre and East and West Hanningfield Con 49.8% UKIP 26.7% Lab 10.1% LD 9.6% Grn 3.8% Crawley BC - Southgate Lab 38.4% Con 35.7% UKIP 24.4% Just 1.5% Rushmoor BC - West Heath UKIP 36.8% Con 34.2% Lab 16.9% LD 12.1% |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 9, 2014 22:31:09 GMT
That Blackpool result's gonna be costly for some...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2014 11:52:37 GMT
Think I just take the lead thanks to Brightlingsea
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 10, 2014 12:29:11 GMT
Blackpool, Waterloo
Mark Senior & Robert Waller 24.3+10 faults, Pete Whitehead 24.7+10, Joe 25.3+1+10, hempie 30.3+10, Tony Otim 30.7+10, PhilDav 32.3+10, brianj 36.3+10
Chelmsford, Bicknacre & East & West Hanningfield
Robert Waller 8.3 faults, Tony Otim 15.6, Joe 20.2, Pete Whitehead & PhilDav 21.2, brianj 22.2, Mark Senior 26.3, hempie 30.2
Essex, Brightlingsea
Pete Whitehead 15.7 faults, PhilDav 12.8+10, brianj 14.8+10, Joe 16.4+10, Tony Otim 18.2+10, hempie 18.4+10, Mark Senior 20.8+10, Robert Waller 25.9+10
Crawley, Southgate
PhilDav 10.1 faults, Robert Waller 14.5, Pete Whitehead 17.3, hempie 19.5, Mark Senior 21.5, Joe & Tony Otim 23.5, brainj 41.5+10
Rushmoor, West Heath
Tony Otim 19.8 faults, hempie & Robert Waller 25.8, Mark Senior 27.8, Joe 28.0, Pete Whitehead 28.2, PhilDav 29.4, brianj 45.8+10
for the week
Pete Whitehead 117.1 faults, Robert Waller 118.8, Phil Dav 125.8, Tony Otim 127.9, Joe 134.4, Mark Senior 140.7, hempie 144.3, brianj 200.6
and for the first two weeks of October
250.8 Pete Whitehead
265.6 Robert Waller
284.4 Joe
289.9 hempie
293.2 Mark Senior
309.9 PhilDav
310.9 Tony Oyim
396.7 brianj
Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday
There are 10 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 10, 2014 12:34:27 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 15, 2014 21:35:52 GMT
Bolton MB - Harper Green - Asha Ismail (Labour) died
Jeff Armstrong (Uk Independence Party) 28%
Rebekah Fairhurst (Liberal Democrats) 2
Susan Haworth (Labour Party Candidate) 54
Joseph Holt (Independent) 4
James Tomkinson (Green Party) 3
Robert Tyler (The Conservative Party) 9
Conwy UA - Towyn - William Knightly (Conservative) died
Geoff Corry (Independent) 6
Barry Griffiths (Independent) 12
David Johnson (Independent) 8
Laura Knightly (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 35
Beverley Pickard-Jones (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 16
Michael Smith (Independent) 23
Fenland DC - Medworth - Jonathan Farmer (Conservative) disqualified after receiving a 21 months suspended prison sentence for possessing a WWII pistol
Kathy Dougall (Labour Party Candidate) 26
Andrew Hunt (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 36
Erbie Murat (Independent) 3
Josephine Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat) 3
Steve Tierney (The Conservative Party Candidate) 32
Kingston-upon-Thames - Tudor - Frank Thompson (Conservative) resigned due to ill health
Ryan Coley (Green Party) 3
Marilyn Mason (Liberal Democrats) 27
Maria Netley (Conservative Party) 49
Chris Priest (Labour Party) 15
Ben Roberts (UK Independence Party) 6
Rossendale BC - Helmshore - Amanda Milling (Conservative) resigned after being selected as PPC for Cannock Chase
Granville Barker (UK Independence Party) 30
Emma Harding (Labour Party) 25
Tony Haworth (Conservative Party) 45
Rutland UA - Oakham South West - Joanna Figgis (Conservative) resigned as her husband got a new job and had to move
Ben Callaghan (Independent) 25
Richard Clifton (Conservative Party Candidate) 42
Richard Swift (Liberal Democrats) 33
Rutland UA - Whissendine - Brian Montgomery (Independent) died
Sam Asplin (Liberal Democrats) 30
Jonny Baker (Conservative Party Candidate) 70
Swale BC - Sheppey Central - John Morris (Conservative) died
Tina Booth (Conservative Party Candidate) 35
Alan Henley (The Labour Party Candidate) 26
David Jones (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 36
Mad Mike Young (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 3
Thurrock BC - West Thurrock & South Stifford - Andy Smith (Labour) died
Terry Brookes (Labour Party Candidate) 41
Russell Cherry (United Kingdom Independence Party) 43
John Rowles (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16
York UA - Westfield - Lynn Jeffries (Liberal Democrat, elected as Labour) died
Jason Brown (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10
Louise Corson (The Labour Party Candidate) 34
Sam Kelly (English Democrats - “Putting England First!”) 2
Judith Morris (UK Independence Party) 14
Andrew Waller (Liberal Democrat) 36
Alison Webb (Green Party) 4
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Post by marksenior on Oct 15, 2014 22:36:11 GMT
Bolton Lab 52 UKIP 29 Con 10 LD 4 Green 3 Ind 2
Conwy Con 48 Lab 20 4 Inds each 8
Fenland Con 40 UKIP 30 Lab 22 LD 4 Ind 4
Kingston Con 37 LD 27 Lab 16 UKIP 11 Green 9
Rossendale Con 39 Lab 31 UKIP 30
Rutland Oakham Ind 39 Con 35 LD 26
Rutland Whissendine Con 57 LD 43
Swale UKIP 40 Con 33 Lab 22 OMRLP 5
Thurrock Lab 46 UKIP 39 Con 15
York LD 36 Lab 31 UKIP 12 Con 11 Green 8 Eng Dem 2
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 15, 2014 23:10:10 GMT
Bolton - Harper Green
Jeff Armstrong (Uk Independence Party) 21.7
Rebekah Fairhurst (Liberal Democrats) 3.3
Susan Haworth (Labour Party Candidate) 51.1
Joseph Holt (Independent) 2.5
James Tomkinson (Green Party) 4
Robert Tyler (The Conservative Party) 17.4
Conwy - Towyn
Geoff Corry (Independent) 5
Barry Griffiths (Independent) 5
David Johnson (Independent) 20
Laura Knightly (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 45
Beverley Pickard-Jones (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 20
Michael Smith (Independent) 5
Fenland - Medworth
Kathy Dougall (Labour Party Candidate) 16.5
Andrew Hunt (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 36.3
Erbie Murat (Independent) 4.4
Josephine Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat) 7
Steve Tierney (The Conservative Party Candidate) 35.8
Kingston-upon-Thames - Tudor
Ryan Coley (Green Party) 6.4
Marilyn Mason (Liberal Democrats) 26.2
Maria Netley (Conservative Party) 40.1
Chris Priest (Labour Party) 12.4
Ben Roberts (UK Independence Party) 14.9
Rossendale - Helmshore
Granville Barker (UK Independence Party) 21.7
Emma Harding (Labour Party) 34.7
Tony Haworth (Conservative Party) 43.6
Rutland - Oakham South West
Ben Callaghan (Independent) 34.4
Richard Clifton (Conservative Party Candidate) 42.3
Richard Swift (Liberal Democrats) 23.3
Rutland - Whissendine
Sam Asplin (Liberal Democrats) 27.3
Jonny Baker (Conservative Party Candidate) 72.7
Swale - Sheppey Central
Tina Booth (Conservative Party Candidate) 32.3
Alan Henley (The Labour Party Candidate) 26.6
David Jones (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 39.3
Mad Mike Young (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 1.8
Thurrock - West Thurrock & South Stifford
Terry Brookes (Labour Party Candidate) 49.8
Russell Cherry (United Kingdom Independence Party) 35.8
John Rowles (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14.4
York - Westfield
Jason Brown (The Conservative Party Candidate) 9.3
Louise Corson (The Labour Party Candidate) 35
Sam Kelly (English Democrats - “Putting England First!”) 0.7
Judith Morris (UK Independence Party) 20.3
Andrew Waller (Liberal Democrat) 31
Alison Webb (Green Party) 3.7
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Post by brianj on Oct 15, 2014 23:40:44 GMT
Hoo boy...
Bolton, Harper Green: Lab 44, UKIP 28, Con 18, Green 5, Ind 3, LibDem 2.
Conwy, Towyn: Con 52, Lab 30, Johnson 10, Smith 4, Corry 2, Griffiths 2.
Fenland, Medworth: Con 40, UKIP 29, Lab 21, LibDem 6, Ind 4.
Kingston-upon-Thames, Tudor: Con 36, LibDem 27, UKIP 23, Lab 9, Green 5.
Rossendale, Helmshore: Con 40, Lab 33, UKIP 27.
Rutland, Oakham SW: Ind 43, Con 37, LibDem 20.
Rutland, Whissendine: Con 59, LibDem 41.
Swale, Sheppey Central: Con 33, UKIP 29, Lab 25, Loony 13.
Thurrock, WT&SS: UKIP 48, Lab 32, Con 20.
York, Westfield: Lab 39, UKIP 22, LibDem 19, Con 15, Green 3, EngDem 2.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 1:51:58 GMT
Bolton
Lab 55
UKIP 28
Con 9
Green 3
LD 3
Ind 2
Conway
Con 40
Lab 20
Johnson 16
Smith 8
Griffiths 8
Corry 8
Fenland
UKIP 40
Con 30
Lab 18
LD 10
Murat 2
Tudor
Con 43
LD 17
Lab 14
Green 13
UKIP 13
Rossendale
Con 40
UKIP 34
Lab 26
Oakham SW
Con 45
IND 30
LD 25
Whissendine
Con 65
LD 35
Sheppey Central
UKIP 46
Con 28
Lab 23
Mad Mike Young 3
Thurrock
Lab 43
UKIP 42
Con 15
York
Lab 34
LD 31
UKIP 17
Con 10
Green 6
ED 2
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Post by hempie on Oct 16, 2014 7:21:12 GMT
Bolton, Harper Green: Lab 56, UKIP 22, Con 11, Green 4, Ind 4, LD 3
Conwy, Towyn: Con 42, Lab 18, Johnson 10, Smith 10, Corry 10, Griffiths 10
Fenland, Medworth: Con 41, Lab 25, UKIP 22, LD 7, Ind 5
Kingston-upon-Thames, Tudor: Con 38, LD 24, UKIP 13, Lab 13, Green 12
Rossendale, Helmshore: Con 44, Lab 39, UKIP 17
Rutland, Oakham SW: Con 46, LD 29, Ind 25
Rutland, Whissendine: Con 79, LD 21
Swale, Sheppey Central: UKIP 35, Con 33, Lab 28, OMRLP 4
Thurrock, West Thurrock & South Stifford: UKIP 44, Lab 43, Con 13
York, Westfield: LD 36, Lab 32, UKIP 15, Con 10, Green 5, ED 2
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2014 8:51:03 GMT
Kingston LB - Tudor Con 43.2% LD 24.7% Lab 13.3% UKIP 10.2% Grn 8.6% Bolton MB - Harper Green Lab 46.3% UKIP 31.5% Con 14.2% LD 3.3% Grn 2.8% Ind 1.9% Rutland UA - Oakham SW Con 38.8% Ind 32.1% LD 29.1% Rutland UA - Whissendine Con 60.7% LD 39.3% Thurrock UA - West Thurrock & South Stifford UKIP 44.4% Lab 41.7% Con 13.9% York UA - Westfield LD 38.5% Lab 35.6% UKIP 8.7% Con 8.5% Grn 7.4% ED 1.3% Fenland DC - Medworth UKIP 37.1% Con 34.3% Lab 21.4% LD 4.1% Ind 3.1% Rossendale BC - Helmshore Con 45.6% Lab 29.5% UKIP 24.9% Swale BC - Sheppey Central UKIP 36.5% Con 31.9% Lab 25.7% OMRLP 5.9% Conwy CC - Towyn Con 40.8% Lab 22.1% Ind G 14.8% Ind J 11.8% Ind C 5.4% Ind S 5.1% |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 16, 2014 12:29:07 GMT
8 entries this week that were all present and correct.
Bolton: 100% Labour hold with UKIP second, majority ranges from 14.8% (Pete Whitehead) to 34% (hempie)
Conwy: 100% Conservative hold, with 7 having Labour second (or in one case joint 2nd) although Robert Waller has Ind Smith second
Fenland: 5 UKIP gain from Conservative with brianj, hempie and Mark Senior a Conservative hold
Kingston-upon-Thames: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Lib Dem ranging from 9% (brianj) to 26% (Joe)
Rossendale: 100% Conservative hold with 6 having Labour second and Joe & Robert Waller UKIP second
Rutland, Oakham SW: 6 Conserative hold with brianj & Mark Senior an Independent gain
Rutland, Whissendine: 100% Conservative win with share ranging from 55.6% (Tony Otim) to 76% (hempie)
Shepway: 7 UKIP gain from Conservative (majority from Robert Waller's 1% to Joe's 18%) with brianj a Conservative hold
Thurrock: 4 Labour hold with brianj, hempie, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller a UKIP gain
York: 4 Labour hold with hempie, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller a Lib Dem gain
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 16, 2014 14:01:58 GMT
Bolton Lab 54.7 UKIP 24.1 Con 13.2 Grn 3.3 Ld 2.5 Ind 2.2 Conwy: Con 53.2 Lab 18.7 Ind C 9.3 Ind J 8.9 Ind G 5.6 Ind S 4.3 Fenland: UKIP 39.2 Con 37.5 Lab 17.3 Ind 3.2 LD 2.8 Kingston: Con 38.7 LD 20.1 Lab 15.5 UKIP 12.9 Grn 12.8 Rossendale: Con 45.7 Lab 31.5 UKIP 22.8 Rutland, Oakham SW Con 44.9 Ind 32.1 LD 23 Rutland, Whissendine con 55.6 LD 44.4 Swale UKIP 36.9 Con 34.7 Lab 24.8 OMRLP 3.6 Thurrock: Lab 45.8 UKIP 36.5 Con 17.7 York: Lab 43.9 LD 24.3 UKIP 12.7 Con 10.2 Grn 5.7 ED 3.2 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 17, 2014 8:33:18 GMT
Congratulations to Mark for the week
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 17, 2014 8:39:14 GMT
Conwy, TowynRobert Waller 25.6 faults, Joe 36.9, hempie 40.9, Pete Whitehead 47.2, PhilDav 49.6, Mark Senior 52.9, Tony Otim 63.3, brianj 79.9 Rest to follow later Have I mentioned how much I hate Welsh by-elections! |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 17, 2014 11:44:07 GMT
Bolton, Harper Green
Pete Whitehead 12.8 faults, Mark Senior 13.3, Joe & Robert Waller 17.3, Tony Otim 18.8, PhilDav 23.6, brianj 24.4, hempie 25.3
Conwy, Towyn
Robert Waller 25.6 faults, Joe 36.9, hempie 40.9, Pete Whitehead 47.2, PhilDav 49.6, Mark Senior 52.9, Tony Otim 63.3, brianj 79.9
Fenland, Medworth
Mark Senior 19.4 faults, brianj 21.0, Tony Otim 17.0+10, PhilDav 17.6+10, Pete Whitehead 20.8+10, hempie 33.0, Robert Waller 27.6+10, Joe 30.4+10
Kingston-upon-Thames
Pete Whitehead 7.0 faults, PhilDav 9.6, Mark Senior 10.0, hempie 14.0, Tony Otim 20.4, Robert Waller 21.7, Joe 22.0, brianj 25.2
Rossendale, Helmshore
Pete Whitehead 6.5 faults, Tony Otim 6.8, PhilDav 13.2, Robert Waller 13.9, brianj 17.7, Mark Senior 19.7, hempie 21.8, Joe 21.9
Rutland, Oakham South West
Tony Otim 27.3 faults, PhilDav 27.9, Joe 31.3, hempie 39.3, Pete Whitehead 39.5, brianj 30.3+10, Mark Senior 34.3+10, Robert Waller 47.3
Rutland, Whissendine
Tony Otim 14.7+10 faults, Mark Senior 17.5+10, brianj 21.5+10, Pete Whitehead 24.9+10, Joe 33.5+10, Robert Waller 43.5+10, PhilDav 48.9+10, hempie 55.5+10
Swale, Sheppey Central
Joe 24.9 faults, Mark Senior 36.9, PhilDav 38.5, Tony Otim 43.1, Pete Whitehead 43.9, Robert Waller 44.9, hempie 46.9, brianj 58.9+10
Thurrock, West Thurrock & South Stifford
PhilDav 2.4 faults, Mark Senior 8.8, Tony Otim 9.1, Joe 14.8, Robert Waller 18.7+10, hempie 18.8+10, Pete Whitehead 19.6+10, brianj 36.7+10
York, Westfield
hempie & Robert Waller 48.5, Mark Senior 51.0, Pete Whitehead 52.6, Joe & PhilDav 58.5+10, Tony Otim 73.0+10, brianj 82.5+10
and for the week:
Mark Senior 283.8 faults, Pete Whitehead 304.8, PhilDav 319.6, Joe 321.4, Tony Otim 323.4, Robert Waller 338.9, hempie 363.9, brianj 448.0
and for the month to date (3 of 5 weeks):
555.4 Pete Whitehead
577.0 Mark Senior
604.5 Robert Waller
605.8 Joe
629.6 PhilDav
634.3 Tony Otim
653.9 hempie
844.8 brianj
Objections please by noon Sunday
8 by-elections next weeek. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 17, 2014 11:44:30 GMT
I was surprised that no one else took into account the byelection a few weeks ago in another ward in the neighbourhood of Towyn, in which two of the same independents also stood and Smith nearly won.
Apart from that, my predictions were disastrous this week* and I believe that Pete has increased his lead for the month and Mark Senior moved up into a clear second place, after an outstanding week.
*Though I really do challenge other outsiders to correctly forecast the Liberal Democrat fortunes in Rutland!
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