maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 31, 2014 23:13:39 GMT
Royal Mail ought to be aware that the publicity from this may increase support for Britain First. From 0.2% to 0.4%? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2014 23:16:41 GMT
I predict that Britain First will beat the lib Dems.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2014 23:35:07 GMT
I predict that Britain First will beat the lib Dems.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2014 23:41:27 GMT
I predict that Britain First will beat the lib Dems. I previously correctly predicted that you would be beaten by Elvis loves pets party. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 1, 2014 0:52:00 GMT
Significant tweet from Farage Nigel Farage @nigel_Farage 42m42 minutes ago Interestingly, the Tory vote is down 2%, and the Labour vote has shrunk by 9%. Like #UKIP, most voters oppose secretive #TTIP EU-USA deal. The significance is not that Farage, like others, copied the Kent Online mistake and gave the figure for Conservative change as down two not up two. The significance is that this is the first time Farage has come out and said "UKIP is opposed to TTIP". I have seen other UKIP figures like David Coburn state their opposition to TTIP. However whilst the party as a whole and its official spokesman have expressed increasing reservations about aspects of TTIP the official line until now has been that UKIP will wait for the final draft before making a final judgement on TTIP. I think UKIP has been shifting more to an anti-TTIP position lately and this suggests to me that Farage has decided to move from a position of having reservations and reserving judgement to a position of outright opposition. I really can't see how UKIP could have supported TTIP - as the withdrawlist case would be that a better deal for the UK (particularly on Financial Services) would be available with direct bilateral negotiations and the EU is just getting in the way. They also could not remain neutral without looking irrelevant. Interesting to see if TTIP takes chunks out of the Labour activist base. I concur. If UKIP came out with 'the aims behind TTIP are OK but we'd do so much better on our own' it could be a significant move. As a more general comment, have Unite been using Kent as a test bed or dry run for an anti TTIP campaign? I'm surprised that many people are aware of it or any alleged impact it will have on the NHS (the envy of the world, let us not forget). Perhaps this is their first shot on this pre GE. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 1, 2014 14:05:05 GMT
"It is strange to think that only a few weeks ago, the Tories were confident about keeping hold of Rochester & Strood.
But to the great surprise of No. 10, it turns out that voters in Rochester are not very interested in joining the Tory fightback. Even Cabinet members are returning from Rochester with the sense that the battle is already lost."www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9355882/how-to-fight-ukip/
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 1, 2014 15:07:34 GMT
So should UKIP win this by-election how many defections do you think we'll see parliamentary-wise? Does this depend on the margin of victory?
I'm pretty convinced that this will be the trigger for mass defections at local council level across the country, sort of a Gang of Four moment. I don't however think it will move many voters over nationwide though, in fact it will probably start to focus the minds even more of the anti-UKIP brigade in places where they have a chance of winning.
It would create complete chaos on the council here for starters if the rumours of two defections from Con to UKIP are true.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 1, 2014 15:31:55 GMT
So should UKIP win this by-election how many defections do you think we'll see parliamentary-wise? Does this depend on the margin of victory? I'm pretty convinced that this will be the trigger for mass defections at local council level across the country, sort of a Gang of Four moment. I don't however think it will move many voters over nationwide though, in fact it will probably start to focus the minds even more of the anti-UKIP brigade in places where they have a chance of winning. It would create complete chaos on the council here for starters if the rumours of two defections from Con to UKIP are true. I can't imagine many activists will follow their councillors over now, and that's the killer. If, for example, those two councillors go over, they will be buggered if their local constituency activists refuse to follow them. Then again, I've not really got a clue what's going to happen next. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2014 16:28:02 GMT
And will it only encourage Tory councillors? I really don't think many Labour ones are attracted by Ukip anyway - most of the anti EU ones are very left wing
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 1, 2014 17:57:45 GMT
And will it only encourage Tory councillors? I really don't think many Labour ones are attracted by Ukip anyway - most of the anti EU ones are very left wing and possibly some Independents....Quite a few of the councillors who defected over the last couple of years have previously been Independents. I'm not sure why this result would be a particular tipping point though as compared to Clacton? |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 1, 2014 18:00:12 GMT
The father of a friend of mine trained to be a Methodist minister in the 50s (although never actually became one). He said that his most difficult task was to persuade Mr and Mrs Mycock not to call their son Aaron...
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Post by Devonian on Nov 1, 2014 19:24:34 GMT
UKIP billboard  |
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Post by Ben Walker on Nov 1, 2014 19:33:16 GMT
UKIP billboard As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. |
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Post by Devonian on Nov 1, 2014 20:01:38 GMT
UKIP billboard As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. To be fair its a billboard. You don't tend to get much substance on billboards. I think however that UKIP are absolutely right to focus on supporting the NHS, both in soundbites like this but also in substance, in things like their hardening position on TTIP. Not only is it the right thing to do but it also makes good tactical sense. Labour has developed a line of attack on UKIP that is "UKIP is more Tory than the Tories, UKIP want to abolish the NHS". They keep repeating this and will no doubt continue to do so with increasing frequency up to the General Election and beyond". I've no doubt that the reason why they've done this is they've worked out its an effective line to use against UKIP. UKIP voters are both older and poorer on average than the UK population as a whole. They are therefore rather more likely than non UKIP voters to rely on the NHS. From a tactical point of view UKIP cannot allow the Labour charge to stick, they must therefore be very loudly and publicly supporting of the NHS. I think thet realise this, hence billboards like the one above. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2014 21:12:25 GMT
UKIP billboard As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. You are in the wrong party. |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 1, 2014 21:25:02 GMT
UKIP billboard As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. I agree with Devonian's point that a billboard doesn't really need have such substance to it. However the point about substance is valid. Outside of TTIP I've heard very little from UKIP on the NHS at all. And the TTIP policy was brought about as a result of more recent news articles on the subject than anything else. Do they support the current Clinical Commissioning model as it stands, or would they support a difference healthcare structure (whether organised locally or more centralised)? Do they support putting more money into the health service, freezing the money (in real terms) or reducing it? How would they deal with any potential future shortages of NHS staff? What is their policy on migrant doctors/nurses coming to work for the NHS (either for short term work permits or for the longer term)? These are things that all mainstream parties have to consider when drawing up their manifestos, and UKIP's 2015 manifesto has got to be better than it's 2010 effort in this and other areas. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2014 22:20:54 GMT
As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. I agree with Devonian's point that a billboard doesn't really need have such substance to it. However the point about substance is valid. Outside of TTIP I've heard very little from UKIP on the NHS at all. And the TTIP policy was brought about as a result of more recent news articles on the subject than anything else. Do they support the current Clinical Commissioning model as it stands, or would they support a difference healthcare structure (whether organised locally or more centralised)? Do they support putting more money into the health service, freezing the money (in real terms) or reducing it? How would they deal with any potential future shortages of NHS staff? What is their policy on migrant doctors/nurses coming to work for the NHS (either for short term work permits or for the longer term)? These are things that all mainstream parties have to consider when drawing up their manifestos, and UKIP's 2015 manifesto has got to be better than it's 2010 effort in this and other areas.To be honest, the 2010 manifesto was actually quite good if a little sparse. The populist divergence from their liberal manifesto to romanian - bashing and protecting the nhs type nonsense is the problem. How they plan on keeping their eurosceptic authentically right wing core with such nonsense I don't know. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 1, 2014 22:35:24 GMT
UKIP billboard As much as it looks nice, I'd really like the party to be more 'how we're going to do it' rather than just putting out a soundbite. I'm pro-soundbite, but I want substance to it too. Did Mr Reckless only just discover Medway's NHS a couple of months ago? |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 2, 2014 0:56:20 GMT
I agree with Devonian's point that a billboard doesn't really need have such substance to it. However the point about substance is valid. Outside of TTIP I've heard very little from UKIP on the NHS at all. And the TTIP policy was brought about as a result of more recent news articles on the subject than anything else. Do they support the current Clinical Commissioning model as it stands, or would they support a difference healthcare structure (whether organised locally or more centralised)? Do they support putting more money into the health service, freezing the money (in real terms) or reducing it? How would they deal with any potential future shortages of NHS staff? What is their policy on migrant doctors/nurses coming to work for the NHS (either for short term work permits or for the longer term)? These are things that all mainstream parties have to consider when drawing up their manifestos, and UKIP's 2015 manifesto has got to be better than it's 2010 effort in this and other areas.To be honest, the 2010 manifesto was actually quite good if a little sparse. The populist divergence from their liberal manifesto to romanian - bashing and protecting the nhs type nonsense is the problem. How they plan on keeping their eurosceptic authentically right wing core with such nonsense I don't know. They may be expecting the old core to continue backing them in the same way that the core voters of most parties often stay on board for some time after major policy shifts (most notable UK example being New Labour's massive move to the right). But even if they aren't, they need those voters and activists less than they need the new voters who have come over to them over the last couple of years. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 2, 2014 1:06:59 GMT
I have to congratulate UKIP on achieving the almost impossible. Their opportunism in recent months has been so great that they are in danger of making Cameron's Conservatives look vaguely principled. On healthcare, as with so many other policy areas, UKIP are now part of the problem.
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