|
Post by Merseymike on Oct 19, 2014 21:42:48 GMT
It does rather suggest that by-elections are becoming less and less of a guide to general elections - because I don't think there would be any Lab to Con tactical voting in a general election - and the turnouts would be so much higher I think you're right, and that maybe it goes in cycles. Look at the by-election victories leading up to Feb 74 for example- they weren't really reflected in the general, and indeed several of those victories were reversed. And of course Darlington in March 1983 which Labour held - although it was thought they would probably come in third
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Oct 19, 2014 23:17:15 GMT
Re - Darlington in 1983 the polls leading up to the by election predicted a comfortable Labour win.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 8:26:41 GMT
The deputy leader of Britain First is to stand here.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2014 8:34:11 GMT
Who is the deputy leader of Britain First?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 8:53:39 GMT
Who is the deputy leader of Britain First? Jayda Fransen, who looks like this. (Any interest from another thread in Off Topic is purely for others to decide)
|
|
|
Post by La Fontaine on Oct 20, 2014 9:29:44 GMT
Re - Darlington in 1983 the polls leading up to the by election predicted a comfortable Labour win. The initial polls did show a Labour win. However, there had been a pattern whereby the SDP had been able quickly to take the lead in other by-elections during the actual campaign. Most people on the ground, including myself, expected this to happen. So did the bookies. The Tories were expected to come third and be squeezed. However, Labour candidate Ossie O'Brien was a strong, well-known local figure while the SDP candidate was a political ingenue who imploded, most notably during a televised debate at Polam Hall School. Sensing the change of mood, some Labour helpers popped next door to William Hills and put money on Ossie. Labour now had all the "mo". This did not stop the Observer's columnist Adam ? From popping up to Darlington and reporting that Labour's support was collapsing! Ossie duly won, but the Tories also came up strongly and ran him close. Ten weeks later Michael Fallon was elected. I was Ossie's minder.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,469
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2014 9:33:48 GMT
Adam Raphael, one of my least favourite political pundits ever. Still droning away on the BBC just yesterday......
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2014 9:36:39 GMT
Who is the deputy leader of Britain First? Jayda Fransen, who looks like this. (Any interest from another thread in Off Topic is purely for others to decide) I think she's the wrong gender for what that thread has become, but I would...
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
|
Post by Pimpernal on Oct 20, 2014 9:41:07 GMT
Some huge rot is being talked about by the media with regards to party efforts in Rochester and Strood. I was estimate the 3 main parties had c500 people between them out there yesterday. They would have been in various bands, and except for those getting their faces in photos at campaign offices most would be hard to spot. Both UKIP and the Tories were working in Hoo yesterday - yet I didn't see a single Tory despite being there several hours. Equally - no troy probably saw me or my team. Labour were out in the constituency too in considerable numbers - there may not be much central cash going into the campaign but the foot soldiers are certainly out and active. Given the nature of the constituency and the large number of sizeable villages, it could be quite easy for any media bod to visit, see one party busily working away and yet not see another party active at all - that wouldn't mean they weren't busy though. Anything above 20/1 on Labour is a ridiculous price imho... Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4956/elections-16th-october?page=8&scrollTo=195590#ixzz3Gc8GMRryWhat odds would you put on the 3 parties? Did you find direct Lab to Con switchers? UKIP 5/6 Cons 7/4 Lab 5/2 Others 100/1 Bar No Lab-Con switchers at all.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 20, 2014 10:39:09 GMT
There is a defecting councillor in this seat, restanding as UKIP and using housing development as his theme, isn't there?
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,440
|
Post by right on Oct 20, 2014 11:03:32 GMT
Re - Darlington in 1983 the polls leading up to the by election predicted a comfortable Labour win. The initial polls did show a Labour win. However, there had been a pattern whereby the SDP had been able quickly to take the lead in other by-elections during the actual campaign. Most people on the ground, including myself, expected this to happen. So did the bookies. The Tories were expected to come third and be squeezed. However, Labour candidate Ossie O'Brien was a strong, well-known local figure while the SDP candidate was a political ingenue who imploded, most notably during a televised debate at Polam Hall School. Sensing the change of mood, some Labour helpers popped next door to William Hills and put money on Ossie. Labour now had all the "mo". This did not stop the Observer's columnist Adam ? From popping up to Darlington and reporting that Labour's support was collapsing! Ossie duly won, but the Tories also came up strongly and ran him close. Ten weeks later Michael Fallon was elected. I was Ossie's minder. I was still a child at the time, but Darlington always seemed to be talked about later as one of those by-elections that became important because it didn't become important. A bit like Fulham or Kensington & Chelsea later.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 20, 2014 11:09:52 GMT
I take the view that it is what killed the SDP.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2014 12:17:52 GMT
What odds would you put on the 3 parties? Did you find direct Lab to Con switchers? UKIP 5/6 Cons 7/4 Lab 5/2 Others 100/1 Bar No Lab-Con switchers at all. To honest, Labour to Con switchers are probably the type who wouldn't want to talk to you lot. I had 2 ethnic families and a man who I think had adopted African origin children (or perhaps he is the stepfather and his partner and his partners ex are both Africans) Really don't see labour as anywhere near that likely to win (40 to one say) as they don't seem to be taking any of our votes and are losing a good deal to you and some to us. They would need to have at least their current share to win and that isn't happening.
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,770
|
Post by Crimson King on Oct 20, 2014 12:41:03 GMT
I take the view that it is what killed the SDP. That and the Falklands (I can't remember which order they came in) Arguably it deserved to - If a significant amount of a parties support is based on froth, with no roots in practical politics, it will be found out sooner or later and better before it gets it's hands on the levers of power. (perhaps a lesson for thse times there) I remember a discussion with my late father around the time the Alliance was over 50% in the polls to the effect that I would rather the polls were not so good as a more solid foundation would be better in the long run (perhaps a lesson for the more recent past there as well)
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 20, 2014 12:54:35 GMT
The Falklands was first. Obviously, the SDP didn't help itself with Tony Cook.
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Oct 21, 2014 15:56:04 GMT
Re - Darlington in 1983 the polls leading up to the by election predicted a comfortable Labour win. The SDP candidate was absolutely dreadful, but on paper it could have easily gone to them. He has gone down in history as one of the very worst by-election candidates Odd, because as a local radio presenter you would have assumed he was good at communication
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2014 16:02:58 GMT
Who is the deputy leader of Britain First? Jayda Fransen, who looks like this. (Any interest from another thread in Off Topic is purely for others to decide) I have genuinely never heard of anyone having the name "Jayda" before.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 21, 2014 16:15:06 GMT
I once came across someone who had named her daughter Jadis, and asked why she was named after the witch in Narnia. She had no idea.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 21, 2014 16:16:59 GMT
Re - Darlington in 1983 the polls leading up to the by election predicted a comfortable Labour win. The SDP candidate was absolutely dreadful, but on paper it could have easily gone to them. He has gone down in history as one of the very worst by-election candidates Odd, because as a local radio presenter you would have assumed he was good at communication He was also a TV reporter. Here's one of his most famous reports: It's often said that it was almost entirely down to Vincent Hanna, who apparently took an instant view that he wasn't serious and so made him out to be a fool in his Newsnight reports. I suspect that's an exaggeration, though. Later he joined the Referendum Party and stood for them in 1997 (though well away from Darlington).
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2014 16:44:42 GMT
I once came across someone who had named her daughter Jadis, and asked why she was named after the witch in Narnia. She had no idea. Truly bizarre. I do wonder what goes through some people's minds...or more accurately does not.
|
|