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Post by middleenglander on Oct 18, 2014 18:36:04 GMT
Hard to say if that is someone trying to make a point or just a very stupid voter. By the hand writing, are you sure they are old enough to vote?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 18, 2014 18:59:45 GMT
Hard to say if that is someone trying to make a point or just a very stupid voter. By the hand writing, are you sure they are old enough to vote? Obviously not learned joined-up writing yet.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 18, 2014 19:40:13 GMT
Hard to say if that is someone trying to make a point or just a very stupid voter. Occam's Razor favours the latter.
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 18, 2014 20:46:46 GMT
Hard to say if that is someone trying to make a point or just a very stupid voter. Occam's Razor favours the latter. Didn't know what this principle was, you learn something new every day!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 18, 2014 21:00:09 GMT
Occam's Razor favours the latter. Didn't know what this principle was, you learn something new every day! It's a great way of dealing with conspiracy theories in particular, as the most likely reason for anything that appears to be human incompetence is, deep down, human incompetence!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2014 22:37:30 GMT
Just got back from Strood.
Some honest thoughts. Ukip are strong and have taken voters from both Con and Lab. Anti immigration is a big issue, particularly in relation to social housing. However, there was a shocking amount of direct Lab to Con switchers. One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more.
Reckless is not popular at all and is a significant drag to ukip.
I'm not confident we will win, but it will be fairly close. Labour are going to do very poorly.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 18, 2014 22:59:24 GMT
One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more. The funny thing is he probably thinks of himself as someone who is against hate!
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 19, 2014 0:55:14 GMT
However, are UKIP right? Have the Tories found a loophole in the law to allow them to spend limitless amounts of cash because they haven't yet got a candidate? What's this?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 19, 2014 8:08:43 GMT
However, are UKIP right? Have the Tories found a loophole in the law to allow them to spend limitless amounts of cash because they haven't yet got a candidate? What's this? Just been to the Electoral Commission website. As I read it, material attacking another candidate, even if not specifically supporting a particular candidate, counts as election expenses.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 19, 2014 10:12:06 GMT
However, there was a shocking amount of direct Lab to Con switchers. One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more. Thinking about it I this is the value of things like the anti-UKIP propaganda piece on Panorama the other day. It was too crudely done to put off many people who like UKIP. What it was aimed at was those people like the one you met on the doorstep who would watch it and say to themselves 'I always knew UKIP were evil, I hate the Tories and everything they stand for but when presented with some boogie man I'll support them anyway. Thank goodness I'm not someone easily manipulated by the media like the UKIP supporters are!'
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2014 10:47:52 GMT
However, there was a shocking amount of direct Lab to Con switchers. One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more. Thinking about it I this is the value of things like the anti-UKIP propaganda piece on Panorama the other day. It was too crudely done to put off many people who like UKIP. What it was aimed at was those people like the one you met on the doorstep who would watch it and say to themselves 'I always knew UKIP were evil, I hate the Tories and everything they stand for but when presented with some boogie man I'll support them anyway. Thank goodness I'm not someone easily manipulated by the media like the UKIP supporters are!' TBF, you could make the accusation at any tactical vote. I know what you mean though. I could imagine someone like The Bishop or Trident on here going for a sly tory tactical.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2014 11:08:55 GMT
You imagine wrong, matey
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Post by Devonian on Oct 19, 2014 11:13:44 GMT
Thinking about it I this is the value of things like the anti-UKIP propaganda piece on Panorama the other day. It was too crudely done to put off many people who like UKIP. What it was aimed at was those people like the one you met on the doorstep who would watch it and say to themselves 'I always knew UKIP were evil, I hate the Tories and everything they stand for but when presented with some boogie man I'll support them anyway. Thank goodness I'm not someone easily manipulated by the media like the UKIP supporters are!' TBF, you could make the accusation at any tactical vote. I know what you mean though. I could imagine someone like The Bishop or Trident on here going for a sly tory tactical. I should perhaps make clear I'm not referring necessarily to all anti-UKIP tactical voters, just the UKIP derangement disorder sufferers like the one you describe.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 19, 2014 12:27:15 GMT
Just got back from Strood. Some honest thoughts. Ukip are strong and have taken voters from both Con and Lab. Anti immigration is a big issue, particularly in relation to social housing. However, there was a shocking amount of direct Lab to Con switchers. One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more. Reckless is not popular at all and is a significant drag to ukip. I'm not confident we will win, but it will be fairly close. Labour are going to do very poorly. Come on then Joe, what is your early day forecast? Do you think an all-women list of two was a good idea? Do you think having a primary was clever or a dangerous waste of time? Are you happy with the quality of candidate choice at the by-elections Corby onwards?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2014 12:36:00 GMT
Just got back from Strood. Some honest thoughts. Ukip are strong and have taken voters from both Con and Lab. Anti immigration is a big issue, particularly in relation to social housing. However, there was a shocking amount of direct Lab to Con switchers. One said that he hated us, but he hated ukip more. Reckless is not popular at all and is a significant drag to ukip. I'm not confident we will win, but it will be fairly close. Labour are going to do very poorly. Come on then Joe, what is your early day forecast? Do you think an all-women list of two was a good idea? Do you think having a primary was clever or a dangerous waste of time? Are you happy with the quality of candidate choice at the by-elections Corby onwards? Ukip 38 Con 33 Lab 24 Ith 6 The two tory candidates are essentially the same. Solid no nonsense local female cllrs. Doesn't really matter which one they pick or the fact that the selection is quite late. The question is ukip yes or no (to a lesser extent Reckless If it allows us to spend more within the rules it is worthwhile. Not a big factor all in all.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 19, 2014 13:03:51 GMT
Come on then Joe, what is your early day forecast? Do you think an all-women list of two was a good idea? Do you think having a primary was clever or a dangerous waste of time? Are you happy with the quality of candidate choice at the by-elections Corby onwards? Ukip 38 Con 33 Lab 24 Ith 6 The two tory candidates are essentially the same. Solid no nonsense local female cllrs. Doesn't really matter which one they pick or the fact that the selection is quite late. The question is ukip yes or no (to a lesser extent Reckless If it allows us to spend more within the rules it is worthwhile. Not a big factor all in all. Thanks Joe. Typically prompt, direct and up-front response. I like the forecast, but think Labour will end more squeezed than 25%, and that squeeze differential will decide the margin. I am expecting nearer to 10% myself. I expect more Labour to vote UKIP to defeat a Conservative, than to defeat UKIP, because it serves a greater and more important long-term purpose. I do think that quality of candidates affects the Conservatives far more than it does Labour or currently UKIP. I don't think the Conservatives are choosing by-election candidates anything like carefully enough.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 19, 2014 17:47:13 GMT
Some huge rot is being talked about by the media with regards to party efforts in Rochester and Strood. I was estimate the 3 main parties had c500 people between them out there yesterday. They would have been in various bands, and except for those getting their faces in photos at campaign offices most would be hard to spot. Both UKIP and the Tories were working in Hoo yesterday - yet I didn't see a single Tory despite being there several hours. Equally - no troy probably saw me or my team. Labour were out in the constituency too in considerable numbers - there may not be much central cash going into the campaign but the foot soldiers are certainly out and active. Given the nature of the constituency and the large number of sizeable villages, it could be quite easy for any media bod to visit, see one party busily working away and yet not see another party active at all - that wouldn't mean they weren't busy though. Anything above 20/1 on Labour is a ridiculous price imho... Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4956/elections-16th-october?page=8&scrollTo=195590#ixzz3Gc8GMRry
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2014 20:36:34 GMT
Some huge rot is being talked about by the media with regards to party efforts in Rochester and Strood. I was estimate the 3 main parties had c500 people between them out there yesterday. They would have been in various bands, and except for those getting their faces in photos at campaign offices most would be hard to spot. Both UKIP and the Tories were working in Hoo yesterday - yet I didn't see a single Tory despite being there several hours. Equally - no troy probably saw me or my team. Labour were out in the constituency too in considerable numbers - there may not be much central cash going into the campaign but the foot soldiers are certainly out and active. Given the nature of the constituency and the large number of sizeable villages, it could be quite easy for any media bod to visit, see one party busily working away and yet not see another party active at all - that wouldn't mean they weren't busy though. Anything above 20/1 on Labour is a ridiculous price imho... Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4956/elections-16th-october?page=8&scrollTo=195590#ixzz3Gc8GMRryWhat odds would you put on the 3 parties? Did you find direct Lab to Con switchers?
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 19, 2014 21:35:25 GMT
It does rather suggest that by-elections are becoming less and less of a guide to general elections - because I don't think there would be any Lab to Con tactical voting in a general election - and the turnouts would be so much higher
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2014 21:39:39 GMT
It does rather suggest that by-elections are becoming less and less of a guide to general elections - because I don't think there would be any Lab to Con tactical voting in a general election - and the turnouts would be so much higher I think you're right, and that maybe it goes in cycles. Look at the by-election victories leading up to Feb 74 for example- they weren't really reflected in the general, and indeed several of those victories were reversed.
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