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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 20, 2014 11:29:36 GMT
Very noble.
Lets not mention any of that sort of nasty stuff then is it?
Oh you have plenty of bandwagons that end up as nothing but hot air. Both sides (or sometimes only one side) shouts a lot, possibly to the media. A firestorm gets created, demands for various resignations are made, more often than not they occur after a few days/weeks, and then it goes away too quickly as the media lose interest. Keeping up a relatively low-intensity campaign that focuses primarily on the victims, rather than having a competition to see which politician can condemn the atrocities in the strongest possible terms, can yield better results for the victims in the end. For the record yes I do believe there should be more resignations, and I find it staggering that some of these people were genuinely that ignorant of what was going on (if they were telling the whole truth). However these resignations alone will never solve the problems.Quite. I would go further and suggest that the concentration on resignations distracts from actually doing something. Now that the PCC in South Yorkshire has gone I wonder how much media attention will drift away? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 23, 2014 14:29:55 GMT
Conservatives battle bus hits problems:  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2014 15:00:26 GMT
Rumours that UKIP are getting a fair bit of support.
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Post by Devonian on Sept 23, 2014 15:16:24 GMT
Rumours that UKIP are getting a fair bit of support. Interesting series of tweets from Jennifer Williams of the Manchester Evening News Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsmen · 5h Have been told be three separate well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go Ukip Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsmen · 5h One just said to me that the party leadership have finally started to clock the threat Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsmen · 5h I think Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsmen · 4h One Labour source said to me earlier re anti-politics Ukip vote: 'Middleton don't even like Rochdale. Why would they like Westminster?' |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2014 16:10:39 GMT
What has happened to Liz McInnes twitter account, btw?  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 23, 2014 22:06:49 GMT
Conservatives battle bus hits problems: SNP Battlebus surely in that livery? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2014 22:20:31 GMT
People (Sun and Manchester Evening News) saying that some Labourites have been talking up the UKIP prospects.. could we have a double UKIP by-election victory? I sure as bloody hell hope not.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 24, 2014 1:24:33 GMT
I've been saying for ages that UKIP might win. A bit like Ashfield in 1977.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 24, 2014 6:44:13 GMT
I feel the same. It may be that hour? That was why I was on to it so early after the death, to incur some displeasure on this site for which I am sorry. I bet the major party planners were to it that same day making the self same ideas to each other.
I am not talking tribal or triumphal here. It is just one of those gut feelings.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 24, 2014 7:59:09 GMT
I've been saying for ages that UKIP might win. A bit like Ashfield in 1977. Did you predict a Tory gain there? |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 24, 2014 8:08:44 GMT
I've been saying for ages that UKIP might win. A bit like Ashfield in 1977. Did you predict a Tory gain there? Yes I did and visited. It had the same smell and gut feeling then. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2014 10:10:00 GMT
A poll is apparently on the way here, so let's see how those "gut feelings" compare.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 24, 2014 13:29:40 GMT
Of course, there may also be an element of expectation management at play - making sure that a narrower than expected Labour win can still be claimed as a good result.
UKIP maybe need to be careful to avoid be painted as favourites here...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 24, 2014 15:29:11 GMT
I'll say again what I said the other week- this will stay Labour and this smells of a UKIP surge being manufactured for a) expectation management and b) trying to re-energise local activists.
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Post by coolhandluke on Sept 24, 2014 16:42:56 GMT
Of course, there may also be an element of expectation management at play - making sure that a narrower than expected Labour win can still be claimed as a good result. UKIP maybe need to be careful to avoid be painted as favourites here... Fair point. After all Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin only ranked Heywood and Middleton 148th in Labour held seats being demographically receptive to UKIP. Labour should easily hold this seat with an increased vote share. Britain Elects predict Labour could secure in the upper range of a 55% vote share. Labour may sense UKIP could poll its strongest vote share so far in a Labour seat (which Britain Elects also predict). I believe South Shields currently holds the highest vote share (24.2%) for UKIP in a Labour seat. It will interesting to see if the forthcoming (possibly Ashcroft?) poll finds this is all just expectation management at play or supports the reports that Labour insiders are indeed right to be worried that they could lose Heywood and Middleton to UKIP? The report by Michael Crick seems to confirm (to an extent) Labour's worries although Paul Waugh (Politics Home) mentions key Labour campaign figures, Gloria de Piero and Jon Ashworth have been drafted in and an appeal for Labour party activists to help out and improve the party's low voter-ID in some parts of the seat. If UKIP are breaking through the 'ceiling' of support expected in this seat then will it be to do with topical issues like immigration, the local child grooming convictions and/or the significant decline in Manufacturing in this seat [Castleton was hit with Whipp and Bourne relocating to Indonesia, having been a major employer for the best part of a century, with many skilled electrical engineers made redundant. This followed the closure of Tweedale and Smalley's and Dunlop] or the likes of the closure of the local Police station in Heywood, etc? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 24, 2014 17:47:10 GMT
If I were genuinely concerned about a freak by-election loss, this isn't how I'd go about letting people know. Anyway, UKIP would probably need to poll around 40% to be in with a shot of winning here, which instinctively sounds too high, even if stranger things have been known to happen.
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baloo
Conservative
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Post by baloo on Sept 24, 2014 18:25:58 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 24, 2014 18:43:27 GMT
I've just got back from conference. One of the email briefings PPCs got invited us to go canvassing in Heywood & Middleton after Ed Miliband's speech, but it was an 'if you feel like it' rather than a 'YOU MUST'. So far as I can tell, the idea wasn't even mentioned to anybody else, even though Middleton is only a few miles down the road. If there is worry, it clearly hasn't percolated back to party HQ yet and I can't believe that they haven't got a direct line to the campaign.
On the flip side, Shneur Odze was ramping UKIP's prospects in Middleton during the fringe event referred to by the MEN report. If anything in the rest of his remarks had been credible or coherent, that might have been worth taking into consideration.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Sept 25, 2014 1:08:10 GMT
I've just got back from conference A current and former Labour PPC I am close personal friends with both spotted you as it happens. University chums of mine. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2014 1:43:41 GMT
I've been saying for ages that UKIP might win. A bit like Ashfield in 1977. Did you predict a Tory gain there? I'm too young to have been aware of Grimsby and Ashfield when they happened in 1977 - but the comparison of people "expecting" (Conservatives) to lose Clacton but "expecting" (Labour) to hold Heywood & Middleton is an obvious parallel to the situation when people were "expecting" Labour to hold Ashfield but lose Grimsby. To what extent local people on the ground realised that Labour might lose Ashfield, I have no idea. |
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