Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2014 8:03:59 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 11, 2014 8:20:50 GMT
In real words: UKIP doesn't like the by-election date. Well it does seem a bit tacky to announce the by election date before the date of the funeral. That criticism might be justified but after their West Midlands PCC antics I won't take it from UKIP. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 11, 2014 8:26:10 GMT
You've just reminded me of something that happened years ago that I found quite funny. My housemate at the time (this is 2008) was studying Spanish at weekends, and was helping out with a visit by some Spaniards. On the day they arrived they said they'd meet him later on, as they were going to go to Derbyshire to see the Blue John cavern. They locked their luggage away at Piccadilly, headed for Victoria, and jumped on a train to Castleton. Unfortunately the Castleton they wanted has no railway station. So they ended up walking around Castleton in Rochdale for about an hour trying to find the cavern and asking the bemused locals where the caverns and the tourist office were. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 11, 2014 9:25:13 GMT
LibDem Anthony Smith has just tweeted he has been selected as Heywood and Middleton PPC for 2015 GE. I am not sure how this selection relates to who their byelection candidate will be. If he is not mad, I can't see any reason to change candidate for next month's contest. I was hoping Steve Middleton would be their candidate. That would be fun for all kinds of reasons |
|
|
|
Post by coolhandluke on Sept 11, 2014 10:58:16 GMT
UKIP came close to winning two of the wards in this year's local elections: North Middleton: Lab 851, UKIP 779, Con 273, Ind 129, LD 55 democracy.rochdale.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=89&RPID=1821391West Heywood: Lab 1029, UKIP 1006, Con 248, LD 97 democracy.rochdale.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=94&RPID=1821398They had a fairly good result in two other wards in the constituency: East Middleton: Lab 1092, UKIP 749, Con 365, LD 112 democracy.rochdale.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=80&RPID=1821422West Middleton: Lab 1167, UKIP 855, Con 174, LD 126 democracy.rochdale.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=95&RPID=1821429UKIP didn't contest Bamford or Castleton. Bamford is the Tory stronghold in the constituency. It's also interesting that UKIP had only contested the West Heywood ward (15.4%) in the 2012 Council elections and that ward saw a huge swing in 2014 and their highest vote share (42.3%). So all the other seats fought in 2014 were from a standing start and had last been up in 2010 which coincided with the General Election (so higher turnout) and meant the LDs and Cons were defending some of these seats (so their vote shares may have also been helped?). It looks like there may be more potential votes here for UKIP with the LD vote in freefall locally, former Tories prepared to switch and non-voters being energized (in previously safe wards/constituencies)? The Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election result seemed to indicate, like Alan Johnson recently said, UKIP is only a problem for the Tories. I'm not so sure? If UKIP bother to seriously campaign here, the swing in West Heywood (25.5% from Labour to UKIP) between 2012 and 2014 indicates UKIP can also attract substantial former Labour votes. Is West Heywood so different to the other wards in Heywood? Labour should be looking in this by-election at a possible increased vote share to around 53.0% (looking at the last 3 results) if it repeats it's performance in Wythenshawe and Sale East, and sees off any Labour voters switching to UKIP? It will interesting to see if there's an Ashcroft poll conducted for this by-election? |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2014 11:38:06 GMT
Though of course it doesn't need saying that UKIP were boosted here (as in much of the country) by the simultaneous Euro elections.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
|
Post by andrea on Sept 11, 2014 11:44:16 GMT
Heywood & Middleton Labour selection
Deadline for application: tomorrow
Shortlisting: Monday
Selection: Tuesday
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2014 12:31:52 GMT
Heywood and Middleton  |
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Sept 11, 2014 12:48:17 GMT
UKIP choose John Bickley.
Not local.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Sept 11, 2014 12:57:02 GMT
The Wythenshawe and Sale East candidate. Comfortable Labour hold.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Sept 11, 2014 15:53:47 GMT
Well it does seem a bit tacky to announce the by election date before the date of the funeral. That criticism might be justified but after their West Midlands PCC antics I won't take it from UKIP. I'm not speaking for UKIP I'm speaking for myself. Other than that I take your point. |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Sept 11, 2014 16:10:36 GMT
The Wythenshawe and Sale East candidate. Comfortable Labour hold. They're obviously very short of talent if they're having to recycle a candidate from a previous by-election (though we knew that already). Previous UKIP candidates for more than one by election Nigel Farage - Eastleigh 1994 & Bromley and Chislehurst 2006 John Whittaker - Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995 & Wigan 1999 Jane Collins - Barnsley Central 2011 & Rotherham 2012 Richard Elvin - Middlesbrough 2012 & South Shields 2013 |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 11, 2014 16:40:58 GMT
UKIP choose John Bickley. Not local. He's the general election candidate for Weaver Vale. |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Sept 11, 2014 16:45:33 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Sept 11, 2014 16:57:44 GMT
Is Heywood and Middleton a commuter constituency, or do most residents work within it? If they work in other parts of Greater Manchester you could argue that being 'local' (living in it) wouldn't matter as much given the commuter-feel; everyone being all over the place. I'd assume it wouldn't matter as I'm guessing most urban centres (most of South and West Yorkshire and Gtr-Manchester in this case) are interlinked via job opportunities and transport.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tangent on Sept 11, 2014 17:07:10 GMT
“It is a Labour stronghold where by pure coincidence I actually lived for a while as a small boy." Buckley's parents had wonderful foresight, providing him with an upbringing in his by-election prospects. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Sept 11, 2014 17:11:57 GMT
Does he claim connection with Weaver Vale too? He's in serious danger of becoming UKIP's answer to Shahid Malik.  |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2014 17:48:35 GMT
Is Heywood and Middleton a commuter constituency, or do most residents work within it? If they work in other parts of Greater Manchester you could argue that being 'local' (living in it) wouldn't matter as much given the commuter-feel; everyone being all over the place. I'd assume it wouldn't matter as I'm guessing most urban centres (most of South and West Yorkshire and Gtr-Manchester in this case) are interlinked via job opportunities and transport. Heywood and Middleton are both fairly self-contained towns (looking at a map will make this obvious) and do have a slight reputation for insularity IIRC. I do believe this was catholicleft's patch - or at least very close? Another reason to regret his not posting here any more..... |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 11, 2014 18:03:08 GMT
catholicleft..... not posting here any more.....  |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Sept 11, 2014 18:23:53 GMT
Is Heywood and Middleton a commuter constituency, or do most residents work within it? If they work in other parts of Greater Manchester you could argue that being 'local' (living in it) wouldn't matter as much given the commuter-feel; everyone being all over the place. I'd assume it wouldn't matter as I'm guessing most urban centres (most of South and West Yorkshire and Gtr-Manchester in this case) are interlinked via job opportunities and transport. Heywood and Middleton are both fairly self-contained towns (looking at a map will make this obvious) and do have a slight reputation for insularity IIRC. Most of the towns in northern Greater Manchester have a reputation for insularity, although Heywood in particular is generally seen as more insular than most. But yes, this isn't really a Manchester commuter area; most of the seat looks more to Rochdale and Bury as its main urban centres. |
|
