Prediction Contest for September 2014

[Deleted]

Oxford
Lab 43.5
Lib dem 27
Con 17
Green 10
English Democrat 2.5

Durham
Lab 39
Ind 35
Ukip 19
lib dem 4
Con 3

Conway
Lab 41
Ken Sudlow 19
Con 12
Ukip 12
Val Parker 9
Barry Griffths 5
Michael Smith 2

[brianj]

Conwy, Abergele Pensarn: Lab 46, Sudlow 16, Con 14, UKIP 11, Griffiths 6, Smith 4, Parker 3.
Durham, Crook: Lab 43, UKIP 30, Ind 12, Con 10, Green 5.
Oxford, Quarry & Ringhurst: Lab 32, Green 26, Con 20, LibDem 17, EngDem 5.

[hedgehog]

Conwy abergele & pensarn
Lab 50
Ind sudlow 20
Con 10
Ukip 5
Ind parker 5
Ind griffiths 5
Ind smith 5

Durham crook
Lab 40
Ind 23
Con 21
Ukip 10
Green 6

Oxford quarry & risinghurst
Lab 32
Con 28
Green 24
Lib 12
Eng dem 4

[hempie]

Conwy, Abergele Pensarn: Lab 37, Con 20, Sudlow 14, UKIP 11, Griffiths 7, Parker 7, Smith 4
Durham, Crook: Lab 41, Ind 31, UKIP 16, LD 8, Con 4
Oxford, Quarry & Risinghurst: Lab 42, LD 26, Con 17, Green 13, Eng Dem 2

[marksenior]

Conwy Lab 35 Ind Sudlow 21 Con 14 UKIP 12 Ind G 6 Ind P 6 Ind Smith 6
Durham Lab 43 Ind 25 UKIP 14 LD 10 Con 8
Oxford Lab 45 LD 23 Con 20 Green 8 Eng Dem 4

[Philip Davies]

Conwy - Abergele Pensarn
Barry Griffiths (Independent) 5
Val Parker (Independent / Annibynnol) 5
John Pitt (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 10
Michael Smith (Independent) 5
Rick Stubbs (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 40
Ken Sudlow 30
Sarah Wardlaw (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5

Durham - Crook
Alan Booth (The Conservative Party Candidate) 3
David English (Liberal Democrat) 7
Betty Hopson (UK Independence Party (U K IP)) 12
Tony Simpson (Independent) 37
Maureen Stanton (Labour Party Candidate) 41

Oxford - Quarry & Risinghurst
Julia Gasper (English Democrats - "Putting England First!") 2.9
Katharine Harborne (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18.3
Chewe Munkonge (Labour Party Candidate) 50
Roz Smith (Liberal Democrat) 24.3
Liz Taylor (Green Party) 4.5

[Tony Otim]

Sept 16, 2014 16:00:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

Conwy:
Lab 43.2
ND (Sud) 15.8
Con 14.5
UKIP 10.8
Ind P 7.7
Ind G 4.8
Ind S 3.2


Durham:
Lab 41.2
Ind 27.3
UKIP 22.8
LD 5.6
Con 3.1


Oxford:
Lab 45.7
LD 23.5
Con 20.7
Grn 7.6
ED 2.5

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 18, 2014 6:17:45 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Durham UA - Crook

Lab    40.8%
Ind     29.2%
UKIP  17.5%
LD       8.1%
Con     4.4%

Oxford BC - Quarry & Risinghurst

Lab   43.4%
LD    25.9%
Con  19.2%
Grn    9.7%
ED     1.8%

Conwy CC - Abergele Pensarn

Lab   32.4%
ND    21.6%
Con   17.9%
UKIP  16.2%
Ind P   6.5%
Ind G  3.2%
Ind S   2.2%

[Robert Waller]

With ME away and the attention of many distracted by some other contest, I don't know if anyone is acting DRO.
There seem to have been 9 entries, 2 fewer than last week, with David Boothroyd vanishing from the site as a whole and Carlton missing.
I think brianj and Hedgehog substituted a Green candidate for the LD in Crook.
As for the scores, I for one will leave that entirely for the moment, except to say that none of us sorted out the Independents in Abergele!

[hedgehog]

Thats 2 mistakes in 2 weeks for me now, I need to take my time next week.

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week with Carlton43 and David Boothroyd gone AWOL.
brianj has 5 additional faults for having a non-existant Green in Durham whilst hedgehog gets 6 additional faults for the same reason.
Unanimity for all 3 contests, Labour hold in Conwy and Oxford and Labour gain from Independent in Durham.

Conwy, Abergele Pensarn
Robert Waller 45.3 faults, Mark Senior 55.4, hempie 59.4, Pete Whitehead 60.2, brianj 61.4, Joe 65.4, tonyotim 65.8, hedgehog & PhilDav 73.4

Durham, Crook
Mark Senior 30.8 faults, tonyotim 34.0, Pete Whitehead 34.4, brianj 31.6+5, hempie 38.0, Robert Waller 40.0, Joe 46.0, PhilDav 50.0, hedgehog 58.8+6

Oxford, Quarry & Risinghurst
Joe 12.7 faults, Robert Waller 13.8, hempie 15.8, Pete Whitehead 16.5, tonyotim 24.5, Mark Senior 24.7, PhilDav 29.1, brianj 53.2, hedgehog 63.2

and for the week:
Robert Waller 99.1 faults, Mark Senior 110.9, Pete Whitehead 111.1, hempie 113.2, Joe 124.1, tonyotim 124.3, brianj 151.2, PhilDav 152.5, hedgehog 201.4

and for the month to date:

324.9 Robert Waller
340.2 Joe
356.9 Mark Senior

363.7 tonyotim
373.2 Pete Whitehead
374.2 hempie

380.7 PhilDav
446.1 brianj
468.1 hedgehog

533.8 David Boothroyd
620.8 Carlton43
1,018.3 Myth11

Objections please by 6.00pm Tuesday

3 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00am Thursday

[carlton43]

I apologise for absence and will be out of the loop unil November whilst in transit from Italy via Sheffield to Scotland.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert on the week and the month to date.

[brianj]

Epping Forest, Epping Hemnall: UKIP 35, Con 30, LibDem 25, Green 10.
Guildford, Lovelace: Con 60, UKIP 20, Lab 12, LibDem 8.
Somerset, Frome North: Con 40, LibDem 28, Lab 15, Ind 10, Green 7.

[Robert Waller]

Epping Forest, Epping Hemnall: UKIP 27, Con 25, LibDem 43, Green 5.
Guildford, Lovelace: Con 57, UKIP 23, Lab 9, LibDem 11.
Somerset, Frome North: Con 39, LibDem 38, Lab 12, Ind 8, Green 3.

[Philip Davies]

Epping Forest - Epping Hemnall
Kim Adams (Liberal Democrats) 46.4
Nigel Avey (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Andrew Smith (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 19.6
Anna Widdup (The Green Party) 4

Guildford - Lovelace
Colin Cross (Liberal Democrat) 12.9
Ben Paton (The Conservative Party Candidate) 56.7
David Sheppard (UKIP) 18.7
Robin Woof (Labour Party Candidate) 11.7

Somerset - Frome North
Adrian Dobinson (Independent) 12
Damon Hooton (Liberal Democrats) 34
Linda Oliver (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40
Catherine Richardson (Labour Party Candidate) 9
Les Spalding (Green Party) 5

[Deleted]

Epping Forest: LD 43, UKIP 27, Con 25, Green 5
Guildford: Con 61, UKIP 21, LD 11, Lab 7
Somerset: LD 38.1, Con 37.9, Lab 10, Ind 10, Green 4

[hempie]

Epping Forest, Epping Hemnall: LD 46, Con 23,UKIP 23, Green 8
Guildford, Lovelace: Con 58, UKIP 16, Lab 14, LD 12
Somerset, Frome North: Con 40, LD 31, Lab 13, Ind 12, Green 4

[marksenior]

Epping LD 41 UKIP 27 Con 25 Green 7
Guildford Con 54 UKIP 24 LD 13 Lab 9
Somerset LD 38 Con 34 Lab 13 Ind 10 Green 5

[Tony Otim]

Sept 23, 2014 13:03:47 GMT Tony Otim said:

Epping Forest:
LD 45.2
UKIP 24.5
Con 24.4
Grn 5.9


Guildford:
Con 63.2
UKIP 14.6
LD 12.4
Lab 9.8


Somerset:
Con 38.0
LD 32.1
Ind 15.3
Lab 9.0
Grn 5.6