Prediction Contest for September 2014

[middleenglander]

It looks like 15 local council by-elections during September 2014:
- 3 on the 4th September
- 6 on the 11th
- 3 on the 18th
- 3 on the 25th

10 of the contests for District Councils
- 6 in wards with 4 yearly elections last held in 2011 but one where there was a by-election in 2013
- 2 in wards where elections are held in alternate years with previous elections in May 2014 and
- 2 in wards with annual elections with previous elections in May 2014
2 are for County Council divisions last contested in 2013
1 for a London Borough last contested in May 2014
1 for a Unitary Authority elected in 2013 but with a by-election later that year
1 for a single seat Welsh Council elected in 2012

Conservatives are defending 4 seats, 3 arising from the death of the former councillor and 1 a resignation
Labour is defending 8 seats, 5 following a death and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 2 seats, both following a resignation
Independents are defending 1 seat following a death

With nominations now published for all 15 by-elections there are 72 candidates in total:
Conservatives are contesting all 15, Labour 14, UKIP 13, Liberal Democrats 11 and Greens 8
- with 6 independents contesting 4 seats, 2 TUSAC and 1 each for CPA, English Democrat and No Description.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[Deleted]

Carfax
Green 33
Labour 28
LD 18
Con 15
UKIP 6

Lowest turnout ever? Normal people population must be very low indeed.

Folkestone
UKIP 32
Con 28
Lab 23
LD 10
Green 5
TUSC 2

Surrey Heath
Lab 44
UKIP 35
Con 21

[hempie]

Oxford, Carfax: Lab 30, Green 27, Con 22, LD 16, UKIP 5

Shepway, Folkestone Harvey Central: Con 32, Lab 28, UKIP 27, LD 7, Green 5, TUSC 1

Surrey Heath, Old Dean: Lab 53, UKIP 25, Con 22

[Robert Waller]

Oxford, Carfax: Lab 35, Green 25, Con 14, LD 20, UKIP 6

Shepway, Folkestone Harvey Central: Con 30, Lab 24, UKIP 34, LD 7, Green 4, TUSC 1

Surrey Heath, Old Dean: Lab 47, UKIP 35, Con 18

[hedgehog]

Back after missing a couple of months
Oxford, Carfax
Green 32
Lab 25
Con 21
Lib Dem 18
Ukip 4

Shepway, Folkestone harvey central
Ukip 30
Con 29
Lab 26
Lib Dem 8
Green 6
Tusc 1

Surrey heath, Old dean
Lab 45
Ukip 30
Con 25

[brianj]

Oxford, Carfax: Green 34, Lab 26, LibDem 18, Con 14, UKIP 8.
Shepway, Folkestone Harvey Central: UKIP 36, Lab 25, Con 24, Green 7, LibDem 5, TUSC 3.
Surrey Heath, Old Dean: Lab 48, Con 28, UKIP 24.

[Philip Davies]

Oxford - Carfax
Maryam Ahmed (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17.9
Kenrick Bird (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Tony Brett (Liberal Democrat) 13.6
Alex Hollingsworth (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 28
Richard Scrase (Green Party) 35.5

Shepway - Folkestone Harvey Central
David Callahan (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 33.5
Seth Cruse (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1.9
David Horton (The Green Party) 5.1
Tom McNeice (Liberal Democrat) 5.8
Wendy Mitchell (Labour Party Candidate) 24.4
Rodica Wheeler (The Conservative Party Candidate) 29.3

Surrey Heath - Old Dean
Heather Gerred (The Labour Party Candidate) 48
Eddie Hill (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 32
Max Nelson (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20

[myth11]

Carfax
Green 31
Labour 30
con 18
lib dem 14
UKIP 7

Folkestone
lab 32
Con 28
ukip 20
LD 13
Green 5
TUSC 2

Surrey Heath
Lab 41
con 32
ukip 27

[Davıd Boothroyd]

OXFORD Carfax: Lab 39, GP 30, C 18, L Dem 10, UKIP 3
SHEPWAY Folkestone Harvey Central: UKIP 31, C 29, Lab 23, L Dem 12, GP 4, TUSC 1
SURREY HEATH Old Dean: Lab 46, C 30, UKIP 24

[marksenior]

Oxford Lab 35 Green 28 LD 16 Con 14 UKIP 7
Shepway Con 32 UKIP 27 Lab 24 LD 11 Green 5 TUSC 1
Surrey Heath Lab 49 Con 31 UKIP 20

[carlton43]

Oxford Green 33 Lab 27 Con 17 LD 13 UKIP 10
Shepway UKIP 33 Con 27 Lab 23 LD 10 Green 6 TUSC 1
Surrey Heath Lab 45 UKIP 35 Con 20

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 3, 2014 15:40:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oxford BC - Carfax

Lab  32.3%
Grn  27.5%
Con  21.4%
LD    17.3%
UKIP  1.5%


Shepway BC - Folkestone Harvey Central

UKIP 29.9%
Con  29.1%
Lab   21.1%
LD    16.4%
Grn     2.3%
TUSC  1.2%


Surrey Heath BC - Old Dean

Lab   40.2%
Con  30.4%
UKIP 29.4%

[Tony Otim]

Sept 3, 2014 9:15:47 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oxford:
Lab 31.1
Grn 28.6
LD 18.2
Con 16.7
UKIP 5.4

Shepway:
UKIP 30.1
Con 28.3
Lab 22.4
LD 12.2
Grn 4.6
TUSC 2.4

Surrey Heath:
Lab 49.8
Con 26.1
UKIP 24.1

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week with hempie back from hols and hedgehog rejoining.

Oxford, Carfax: 6 Labour holds with brianj, Carlton43, Hedgehog, Joe, Myth11 & PhilDav going for a Green gain
Shepway, Harvey Central: 9 UKIP gain from Conservative, hempie & Mark Senior Conservative hold, Myth11 a Labour gain
Surrey Heath, Old Dean: 100% Labour hold

[Robert Waller]

If Pete had been right that UKIP would get 1.5% in Carfax, they'd have got precisely 6 votes!

[middleenglander]

Oxford, Carfax
Robert Waller 32.2 faults, Mark Senior 39.6, Tony Otim 44.8, David Boothroyd 50.2, Pete Whitehead 52.0, hempie 52.2, Joe 50.2+10, brianj & Myth11 53.6+10, hedgehog 60.2+10, PhilDav 61.0+10, Carlton43 61.6+10

Shepway, Harvey Central
Pete Whitehead 22.9 faults, Tony Otim 24.3, Carlton43, David Boothroyd & Joe 28.7, hedgehog 32.7, brianj 33.1, PhilDav 37.1, Robert Waller 38.7, Mark Senior 30.4+10, hempie & Myth11 38.4+10

Surrey Heath, Old Dean
David Boothroyd 4.1 faults, Myth11 6.3, brianj 7.7, Pete Whitehead 7.9, hedgehog 9.7, Tony Otim 11.3, Mark Senior 12.1, hempie 17.7, Joe 17.9, Carlton43 & PhilDav 19.7, Robert Waller 23.7

And for the 1st week:

80.4 Tony Otim
82.8 Pete Whitehead
83.0 David Boothroyd

92.1 Mark Senior
94.6 Robert Waller
104.4 brianj

106.9 Joe
112.6 hedgehog
118.3 Myth11

118,4 hempie
120.0 Carlton43
127.8 PhilDav

Objections please by noon Saturday

Six by-electiond next. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Robert Waller]

Well, at least I finally managed to win in central Oxford - even if it was over 35 years late ...

[Robert Waller]

Carlisle BC - Castle - Labour died
Robert Currie (The Conservative Party Candidate) 19
Richard Hunt (The Green Party) 5
Lawrence Jennings (Liberal Democrat) 8
Fiona Mills (UK Independence Party) 25
Alan Taylor (The Labour Party Candidate) 43


Cumbria CC - Castle - Labour died


James Bainbridge (The Conservative Party Candidate) 19
Neil Boothman (The Green Party) 5
Lawrence Jennings (Liberal Democrat) 8
Alan McGuckin (The Labour Party Candidate) 43
John Stanyer (UK Independence Party) 25


Newark and Sherwood DC - Collingham and Meering - Conservative died


Sara Chadd (UK Independence Party (UK I P)) 18
David Clarke (Independent) 38
Kieran Owen (Labour Party Candidate) 8
Richard Shillito (Conservative Party) 36


Newark and Sherwood DC - Ollerton - Labour died


Mary Brown (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17
Moritz Dawkins (UKIP) 26
Michael Pringle (Labour Party Candidate) 57


Newham LB - Beckton - Labour died

Syed Ahmed (Conservative Party Candidate) 24
Mark Dunne (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 3
Jane Lithgow (Green Party) 3
David Mears (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6
Kayode Shewodo (Christian Peoples Alliance) 4
David Thorpe (Liberal Democrat) 2
Tonii Wilson (Labour Party Candidate) 58


Vale of White Horse DC - Abingdon Dunmore - Liberal Democrat resigned because she moved out of area


Margaret Crick (Liberal Democrat) 36
Michael Gould (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Christopher Parkes (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)) 16
Andrew Todd (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38

[carlton43]

Carlisle Lab 56 UKIP 21 Con 14 LD 7 Green 2
Cumbria Lab 56 UKIP 23 Con 12 LD 7 Green 2
Collingham Con 38 Ind 27 UKIP 26 Lab 9
Ollerton Lab 57 UKIP 24 Con 19
Beckton Lab 34 Con 25 LD 13 CPA 12 Green 7 UKIP 6 TUSC 3
Abingdon LD 33 Con 32 Lab 18 UKIP 17

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CARLISLE Castle: Lab 40, L Dem 30, UKIP 17, C 10, GP 3
CUMBRIA Castle: Lab 40, L Dem 30, UKIP 17, C 10, GP 3
NEWARK AND SHERWOOD Collingham and Meering: Ind 38, C 35, UKIP 18, Lab 9
NEWARK AND SHERWOOD Ollerton: Lab 52, C 25, UKIP 23
NEWHAM Beckton: Lab 45, C 33, UKIP 10, CPA 5, GP 3, L Dem 3, TUSC 1
VALE OF WHITE HORSE Abingdon Dunmore: L Dem 42, C 39, Lab 11, UKIP 8