By-elections - 7th August

[maxque]

Epping Forest DC - Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazing (Conservative died)

2011: Con 585, Green 69, LD 43
2007: Con 481, LD 77
2003: Con 389, LD 65
2002: Con 448, LD 74

Robert Glozier (The Conservative Party Candidate)
William Hartington (The Green Party)
Ron McEvoy (UKIP)
Arnold Verrall (Liberal Democrats)


Huntingtonshire DC - Warboys & Bury (Conservative died)

2014: Con 864, UKIP 576, Lab 172, LD 138
2012: Con 612, UKIP 346, Lab 195, LD 169
2010: Con 1746, LD 906, UKIP 407, Lab 299
2008: LD 839, Con 787, UKIP 138, Lab 59
2006: Con 1012, LD 643, Lab 90
2004: LD 1051/782, Con 1008/929, Lab 162

Angie Curtis (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Mary Howell (Labour Party Candidate)
Michael Tew (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Christine Wills (Liberal Democrat)


Malvern Hills DC - Wells (Conservative died)

2011: Con 822/784, Green 491/386
2007: Con 631/584, LD 525/453, Green 217, UKIP 106
2003: LD 639/533, Con 373/324, Green 168

Christopher Burrows (Labour Party Candidate)
Louise Gibson (Independent)
Simon Gill (Liberal Democrat)
Chris O'Donnell (The Conservative Party)
Richard Spencer (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


Stroud DC - Valley (Green resigned after being elected MEP)

2011: Green 417, Lab 279, Con 190
2007: Green 340, Con 148, Lab 89
2003: Green 296, Con 145, Lab 113, LD 57
2002: Green 217, Lab 158, Con 112, LD 92

Martin Baxendale (Green Party)
Stephen Davies (The Conservative Party Candidate)
James Heslop (Labour Party Candidate)
Stuart Love (UK Independence Party)
Lucy Roberts (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)


Worthing BC - Castle (Liberal Democrat disqualified for non-attendance)

2014: Con 702, UKIP 653, LD 414, Lab 324, Green 88
2012: LD 701, Con 505, UKIP 270, Lab 262
2011: Con 892, LD 807, Lab 436, UKIP 251
2010: LD 2199, Con 1542
2008: LD 1167, Con 926
2007: LD 1025/952, Con 944/924, Green 251, UKIP 204
2006: Con 999, LD 884, Green 228
2004: LD 1093/1090/1078, Con 1081/1042/1012
2003: LD 923, Con 771
2002: LD 966, Con 633, Lab 238, Green 56

Jim Deen (The Labour Party Candidate)
Alex Harman (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Charles James (UK Independence Party (UK I P))
Stefan Sykes (Green Party)
Nicholas Wiltshire (Liberal Democrats)

[Deleted]

We're off on holiday later today. so I thought I'd just give you a small update on Worthing (Castle).

We did a very small amount of canvassing - not with any intention of making a serious effort, but as a training opportunity for local Greens to learn about canvassing. I had people from Worthing, Adur and Chichester out. The Chi contingent were very optimistic in their canvassing, so I'm separating it out to avoid distorting the picture.
Cons and UKIP absolutely (i.e. exactly the same number for each) neck and neck, Labour in third at a reasonable distance, LDs just ahead of Greens. To compare, the Chi canvassing had Greens way in the lead over Labour, and Cons, UKIP and LD tied for last by a distance. The latter scenario is NOT going to happen

Saw quality literature - nicely produced glossy A4s - from the LibDems and Labour. Cons had a poorly riso'd A4, as per normal, with lots of white space around a tiny amount of content. UKIP had a glossy A4 and targeted letters. The latter aroused the ire of one voter: I was summoned into the living room of a 90yo Tory lady, who went through the UKIP letter point by point: her anger was because 'it's all about the past; I want to know what they're going to do in the future!' [This 'in the past' comment refers to Worthing issues, not UKIP in general...]

Oddly, our town centre-based manifesto played quite well out here; as did our opposition to the recently-raised possibility of building on farmland just west of the ward, and town. I don't know if the LibDems or UKIP had picked up on this, but it could harm the Tories a fair bit.

UKIP and the Tories have been canvassing; I don't know about the LibDems - their attitude to this one may be indicated by the fact that several leading LibDems are off on holiday at the moment.

I have a feeling UKIP could sneak this, if they really have been working it. It's either them or the Tories. Labour to come a decent third, LibDems a distant fourth, and Greens a very, very distant fifth. If we were to beat the LibDems, then the prediction I heard at second hand the other day could come true: one LibDem councillor told a mutual friend he wouldn't stand again next time because 'by then, the opposition will be the Greens, not the LibDems'.

[Pete Whitehead]

Its unusual that when there are as many as five by-elections on one day all of them are from the same type of authority (in this case second tier districts/boroughs)

[AdminSTB]

Andrew Teale's previews:
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/08/by-election-previews-7-august-2014.html

[East Anglian Lefty]

Ramsey, which is the neighbouring ward.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 7, 2014 13:51:09 GMT @trident said:

Aren't UKIP supposed to have a good level of organisation in Huntingdon? Isn't that where they control a town council?

Yes, Ramsey.

Bury is effectively a southern extension of Ramsey.

[David Ashforth]

	Ward maps	Census maps
EPPING FOREST - Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazeing	link	link
HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Warboys & Bury	link	link
MALVERN HILLS - Wells	link	link
STROUD - Valley	link	link
WORTHING - Castle	link	link

[AdminSTB]

Conservatives hold Warboys and Bury, no figures yet.

[carlton43]

Are we expecting any results tonight or can I go off to bed?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Greens have held Valley ward, Stroud.

Castle ward, Worthing is counting tonight. Don't know about the other two.

Update: Wells ward, Malvern Hills also appears to be counting tonight.

[Ben Walker]

PEOPLE'S ARMY GAIN THE CASTLE

[East Anglian Lefty]

UKIP 568
Con 485
LD 242
Lab 197
Green 49

[AdminSTB]

Warboys and Bury
Con 619
UKIP 560
Lab 72
LD 78

Castle
UKIP 568
Con 485
LD 242
Lab 197
Grn 49

[amasulem]

"Robert Glozier wins the Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing bye-election - full details to published in the morning" - so says Epping Forest DC tweet

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 7, 2014 22:17:25 GMT Ben Walker said:

PEOPLE'S ARMY GAIN THE CASTLE

This is good news and I wasn't at all sure of this one (in fact would probably not have predicted it if James Doyle had not tipped it) but the result in Warboys is disappointing to say the least. The party will have been throwing the kitchen sink at that

[Davıd Boothroyd]

So that's a Conservative hold in Epping.

Malvern Hills, Wells is also a Conservative hold.

[Ben Walker]

Aug 7, 2014 22:38:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 7, 2014 22:17:25 GMT Ben Walker said:

PEOPLE'S ARMY GAIN THE CASTLE

This is good news and I wasn't at all sure of this one (in fact would probably not have predicted it if James Doyle had not tipped it) but the result in Warboys is disappointing to say the least. The party will have been throwing the SPAM SPAM SPAM sink at that

Looks like the Tories did too, judging by the MEPs turning out to canvass.

Ever since the '14 locals I've had a sinking feeling Hunts. just isn't turning the way we expected it to be. Either Tories are using new tactics or our appeal in the area has hit the ceiling.

[AdminSTB]

In vote percentage terms though, Warboys is one of your best by-election results ever. Obviously been a tight squeeze between UKIP and Conservative.

[Pete Whitehead]

Probably a bit of both. It does seem like the kind of area that the Tories may have been a bit complacent in previous years (although as the LDs also used to be able to win this ward this shouldn't be the case). It's bene noted plenty here how the Tories did do much better against UKIP in 2014 in many of those areas where the latter had done well in 2013, especially more middle class areas. In many ways Hunts isn't as natural UKIP territory as parts of the region further east - Warboys touches the Fens but it isn't true Fenland and the county as a whole is affluent suburbia more than anything else. Most of the progress has been made on the back of a strong organisation but that can only get you so far if the underlying demographic situation isn't in your favour.

[AdminSTB]

Stroud, Valley
Green 291
Labour 230
UKIP 76
Tory 67
TUSAC 16