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Post by AdminSTB on Aug 7, 2014 23:14:07 GMT
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Post by AdminSTB on Aug 8, 2014 9:06:12 GMT
Epping Forest:
Con 155
UKIP 122
Grn 23
LD 7
Malvern Hills:
Con 317
LD 227
UKIP 158
Ind 76
Lab 71
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2014 9:10:55 GMT
Very good UKIP result there in Epping. It's striking that both there and in Warboys the combined UKIP/Conservative share is at close to 90%. I know the Tories weren't too far off in Epping on their own, but it does also point to the left of centre parties being squeezed. The question is whether left of centre voters there are voting UKIP to defeat the Tories or vice versa, or perhaps just staying at home ?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2014 9:41:40 GMT
Just 7 votes for the LibDems in Epping? Impressive.
And why no Green in Malvern given their previous showing there?
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Post by AdminSTB on Aug 8, 2014 9:56:38 GMT
Just 7 votes for the LibDems in Epping? Impressive. And why no Green in Malvern given their previous showing there? Their website suddenly stopped being updated in April. Maybe they've lost a key local activist or something. malvernhills.greenparty.org.uk/ |
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Post by observer on Aug 8, 2014 10:04:58 GMT
Pete W raises a good question: what is happening to the Labour and LD vote in area's of UKIP strength?
Conventional wisdom would have it that they would stay loyal to Lab or Lib Dem or vote Con to keep UKIP out.
It varies. Middle-class Lab and LD voters will vote Conservative. Working-class ones switch to UKIP to keep Con out.
In my area there was even a great deal of direct switching of working-class Lib Dem voters to UKIP - in an LD area.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Aug 8, 2014 10:19:21 GMT
They vote UKIP cos we is the anti-right-wing party!  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 8, 2014 10:48:13 GMT
There likely isn't very much of a left-of-centre vote in Warboys or the Epping ward. Neither is a good area for Labour - we weren't close to relevance in the 1990s in Warboys - and the Lib Dem vote is as likely to have been localist or moderate conservative as it is to have reflected left-of-centre opinions.
Obviously there must have been some squeeze and some differential turnout effect, but under ordinary circumstances I'd still expect 70%+ for right-of-centre parties in both contests.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 8, 2014 13:09:27 GMT
I must say this is looking good. Well away from the effects of European elections and already in the run up to GE 2015 we are not being squeezed down as I had feared might be possible, but still making useful progress in this core area of the 2nd Tier Districts that make up so many constituencies. These figures do not bode well for the Conservatives if we can keep it up. Our depredations and the failure of the LibDems to win back those lost 2010 votes from Labour, are going to cut a swathe through the Tory seats.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 8, 2014 15:06:26 GMT
But perhaps you should note how well the LibDems used to do in random local by-elections before being absolutely sure of that.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 8, 2014 15:42:11 GMT
Just 7 votes for the LibDems in Epping? Impressive. And why no Green in Malvern given their previous showing there? Because Malvern Green Party are somewhat disorganised. They're in one of the few areas of the country where it is possible to win a council seat from natural Green voters, and have been somewhat lazy (at least in terms of electioneering) as a result. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Aug 8, 2014 17:53:38 GMT
n my area there was even a great deal of direct switching of working-class Lib Dem voters to UKIP - in an LD area. Where's that? |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 8, 2014 17:55:01 GMT
But perhaps you should note how well the LibDems used to do in random local by-elections before being absolutely sure of that. I am not 'absolutely sure' of anything at all Sibbs, except death and taxes! I rest on what I actually said about those core Second Tier seats from all over the south and my point that far from falling back to the range 4-10%, we continue to run close across the range of seats in a manner that frankly no other party is achieving. Am I enthusiastic?....No. Triumphant?....No. Do I think we are about to hover up a shoal of Commons gains?....No. But do I think we will be a massive aid to ridding Britain of the Cameroon experiment?......Yes I do. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 8, 2014 19:41:05 GMT
But perhaps you should note how well the LibDems used to do in random local by-elections before being absolutely sure of that. I am not 'absolutely sure' of anything at all Sibbs, except death and taxes! I rest on what I actually said about those core Second Tier seats from all over the south and my point that far from falling back to the range 4-10%, we continue to run close across the range of seats in a manner that frankly no other party is achieving. Am I enthusiastic?....No. Triumphant?....No. Do I think we are about to hover up a shoal of Commons gains?....No. But do I think we will be a massive aid to ridding Britain of the Cameroon experiment?......Yes I do. I really think we may very well nail the bastard. Let us pray! |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 8, 2014 23:28:46 GMT
Epping, Broadley Green, Epping Upland & Nazeing - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | Conservative | 155 | 50.5% | -33.4% | -35.7% | -35.2% | | UKIP | 122 | 39.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 23 | 7.5% | -2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 7 | 2.3% | -3.9% | -11.5% | -12.0% | | Total | 307 |
| 44% | 55% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful Huntingdonshire & Warboys - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Conservative | 619 | 46.6% | -2.8% | +0.3% | -5.4% | +3.4% | | UKIP | 560 | 42.1% | +9.2% | +16.0% | +30.0% | +34.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 78 | 5.9% | -2.0% | -6.9% | -21.1% | -40.2% | | Labour | 72 | 5.4% | -4.4% | -9.3% | -3.5% | +2.2% | | Total votes | 1,329 |
| 76% | 101% | 40% | 73% |
Swing Conservative to UKIP 6.0% since May 2014 and 7.9% since 2012 otherwise not particularly meaningful Malvern Hills, Malvern Wells - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 317 | 37.3% | -25.3% | -27.3% | -5.3% | -5.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 227 | 26.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -8.8% | -7.7% | | UKIP | 158 | 18.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +11.4% | +11.1% | | Independent | 76 | 9.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 71 | 8.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green |
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| -37.4% | -35.3% | -14.7% | -15.3% | | Total votes | 849 |
| 65% | 68% | 57% | 60% |
Swing since 2011 not meaningful although Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~1½% since 2007 Stroud, Valley - Green hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | Green | 291 | 42.8% | -4.3% | -16.1% | -5.7% | | Labour | 230 | 33.8% | +2.3% | +18.4% | +15.3% | | UKIP | 76 | 11.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 67 | 9.9% | -11.6% | -15.8% | -13.9% | | TUSAC | 16 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -9.3% | | Total votes | 680 |
| 77% | 118% | 111% |
Swing Green to Labour 3.3% since 2011 and, if meaningful, ~17% since 2007 and 10% since 2003 Worthing, Castle - UKIP gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | UKIP | 568 | 36.9% | +6.9% | +21.3% | +26.3% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 485 | 31.5% | -0.7% | +2.4% | -5.9% | -9.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 242 | 15.7% | -3.3% | -24.6% | -18.1% | -43.1% | | Labour | 197 | 12.8% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -5.5% | from nowhere | | Green | 49 | 3.2% | -0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,541 |
| 71% | 89% | 65% | 41% |
Swing Conservative to UKIP 3.8% since May 2014, although Conservative share was little changed, - and Liberal Democrat to UKIP 23% since 2012 when disqualified councillor was last elected.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 9, 2014 8:09:21 GMT
But perhaps you should note how well the LibDems used to do in random local by-elections before being absolutely sure of that. I am not 'absolutely sure' of anything at all Sibbs, except death and taxes! I rest on what I actually said about those core Second Tier seats from all over the south and my point that far from falling back to the range 4-10%, we continue to run close across the range of seats in a manner that frankly no other party is achieving. Am I enthusiastic?....No. Triumphant?....No. Do I think we are about to hover up a shoal of Commons gains?....No. But do I think we will be a massive aid to ridding Britain of the Cameroon experiment?......Yes I do. I really think we may very well nail the bastard. But none of these wards except Stroud (where UKIP were also-rans) are in competitive parliamentary seats, nor do competitive parliamentary seats have many areas that are demographically similar to them. Slightly reducing the margin in Tory safe seats will have little to no impact on the fate of Cameron. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 9, 2014 9:52:35 GMT
I am not 'absolutely sure' of anything at all Sibbs, except death and taxes! I rest on what I actually said about those core Second Tier seats from all over the south and my point that far from falling back to the range 4-10%, we continue to run close across the range of seats in a manner that frankly no other party is achieving. Am I enthusiastic?....No. Triumphant?....No. Do I think we are about to hover up a shoal of Commons gains?....No. But do I think we will be a massive aid to ridding Britain of the Cameroon experiment?......Yes I do. I really think we may very well nail the bastard. But none of these wards except Stroud (where UKIP were also-rans) are in competitive parliamentary seats, nor do competitive parliamentary seats have many areas that are demographically similar to them. Slightly reducing the margin in Tory safe seats will have little to no impact on the fate of Cameron. What do you mean by the statement '...nor do competitive parliamentary seats have many areas that are demographically similar to them'? I have read it carefully and still can't grasp your intended point. It is not possible to extrapolate much from one small set of by-elections other than the original point I made. That is, we are not slipping back towards 2010 levels of support and at these contemporary levels we shall have an effect on the Conservative ability to hold seats. That point appears so obvious to me I cannot see what you are getting at. Yes, it is true that denting or even severely reducing majorities in safe seats makes no difference, but are you contending that there are no soft to marginal seats where UKIP will make any impression? If so, I think you are wrong. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 9, 2014 21:40:34 GMT
But none of these wards except Stroud (where UKIP were also-rans) are in competitive parliamentary seats, nor do competitive parliamentary seats have many areas that are demographically similar to them. Slightly reducing the margin in Tory safe seats will have little to no impact on the fate of Cameron. What do you mean by the statement '...nor do competitive parliamentary seats have many areas that are demographically similar to them'? I have read it carefully and still can't grasp your intended point. UKIP had three decent results this week, in Huntingdonshire, Worthing and Epping Forest. The Huntingdonshire one was in a large southern rural village remote from major urban centres. These days in the south we're only really competitive in borough constituencies with few villages, and those they do have are much more dependent upon the urban centre. The Worthing one was in a reasonably well-off area of a reasonably well-off coastal town. Only coastal towns with a large measure of deprivation remain competitive and even there Labour seem to do less well than in otherwise similar areas elsewhere, so again this doesn't have much relevance to potentially marginal areas. And the Epping Forest result was for a tiny and deeply rural ward, where personal votes count for a lot more and of a kind that is also rare in marginal seats. Show me a UKIP result in a marginal, or even in the more marginal bits of a safe seat, and you might have evidence as to their impact on 2015. But their impact in fairly safe wards in fairly safe Tory seats is not particularly informative going forward. |
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Post by Tangent on Aug 10, 2014 3:14:12 GMT
The Worthing one was in a reasonably well-off area of a reasonably well-off coastal town. A large chunk of Castle ward is made up of the Maybridge estate, but just after the last War, and that makes it a relatively deprived (and young) ward for Worthing authority, although it has a solid chunk of the fairly comfortable and elderly. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2014 13:18:44 GMT
A large chunk of Castle ward is made up of the Maybridge estate, but just after the last War, and that makes it a relatively deprived (and young) ward for Worthing authority, although it has a solid chunk of the fairly comfortable and elderly. The key word there being relatively, i would have thought, which doesn't invalidate EAL's point. |
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