Ashcroft week poll

[Deleted]

here it is

lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/conservative-lib-dem-battleground/#more-6153

not surprising is it ?

[iain]

Constituencies, all with about 1000 surveyed. Caveats:
It's a constituency poll
Work done during Euro elections, so inflating UKIP and Others, and deflating LD (mostly)
Subjects told to think of candidates who might be standing in their constituency, but no names explicitly mentioned
Work done in run up to GE will benefit Con and LD (and Lab in Watford)

Camborne & Redruth - Con 29%, UKIP 26%, Lab 24%, LD 14%, Oth 7%
Cheadle - LD 32%, Con 29%, Lab 21%, UKIP 15%, Oth 3%
Chippenham - Con 35%, LD 26%, UKIP 19%, Lab 12%, Oth 8%
Eastleigh - LD 39%, Con 27%, UKIP 22%, Lab 10%, Oth 2%
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Con 41%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Lab 11%, Oth 8%
Mid Dorset & North Poole - Con 39, LD 32, UKIP 17%, Lab 8%, Oth 4%
Newton Abbot - Con 39%, UKIP 20%, LD 20%, Lab 13%, Oth 8%
North Cornwall - LD 31%, Con 31%, UKIP 24%, Lab 8%, Oth 6%
Oxford West & Abingdon - Con 36%, LD 25%, Lab 18%, UKIP 11%, Oth 9%
Solihull - Con 37%, LD 28%, Lab 16%, UKIP 12%, Oth 7%
Somerton & Frome - Con 41%, LD 29%, UKIP 14%, Lab 9%, Oth 6%
St Austell & Newquay - Con 32%, UKIP 25%, LD 24%, Lab 10%, Oth 9%
St Ives - Con 31%, LD 29%, UKIP 21%, Lab 11%, Oth 9%
Sutton & Cheam - LD 42%, Con 29%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Oth 3%
Truro & Falmouth - Lab 33%, UKIP 22%, Lab 18%, LD 16%, Oth 11%
Watford - Con 29%, Lab 25%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Oth 6%
Wells - Con 34%, LD 29%, UKIP 16% Lab 11%, Oth 9%

[Pete Whitehead]

Sutton & Cheam is an odd one. I suppose in that case the LD support may have been inflated by people thinking about the local elections for Sutton borough

[Sibboleth]

Additionally don't forget the usual issues with local polling.

[The Bishop]

This week's offering - Lab 33 Con 28 UKIP 17 LibDem 9.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2014 15:07:46 GMT The Bishop said:

This week's offering - Lab 33 Con 28 UKIP 17 LibDem 9.

and Green 7. (Which I don't believe.)

[Andrew_S]

New Ashcroft poll:

Con 33%
Lab 31%
UKIP 15%
LD 8%

[tonygreaves]

And who believes this?

[Deleted]

Jun 30, 2014 15:11:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

New Ashcroft poll:

Con 33%
Lab 31%
UKIP 15%
LD 8%

Other others on 13?

Ashcrofts polls are proving to be very noisy.

[marksenior]

Jun 30, 2014 15:11:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

New Ashcroft poll:

Con 33%
Lab 31%
UKIP 15%
LD 8%

Correct figures are 33/31/15/9.

[Deleted]

Greens still chugging along at 6%

[carlton43]

Jun 30, 2014 17:13:33 GMT @rlemkin said:

Greens still chugging along at 6%

I think in modern terms that is rather good. It is a firm basis for being a proper established party. Under anything other than FPTP it would show a raft of MPs. and then who knows?

[The Bishop]

Though even if they hold their poll ratings at present levels, they are unlikely to match it in their % at the GE because there is almost no chance of a full electoral slate (or anything like it) Unlike UKIP, of course......

[Andrew_S]

Lord Ashcroft has some marginals polls out today:

Brighton Pavilion: Lab 33%, Green 32%, Con 18%, UKIP 9%, LD 5%

Brent Central: Lab 54%, LD 19%, Con 13%, UKIP 7%, Green 5%

Bradford East: Lab 45%, LD 23%, UKIP 15%, Con 12%, Green 2%

Manchester Withington: Lab 56%, LD 22%, Green 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%

Norwich South: Lab 33%, Green 20%, Con 18%, UKIP 15%, LD 12%

/photo/1

[dizz]

Jul 1, 2014 17:12:14 GMT Andrew_S said:

Lord Ashcroft has some marginals polls out today:

Brighton Pavilion: Lab 33%, Green 32%, Con 18%, UKIP 9%, LD 5%

Brent Central: Lab 54%, LD 19%, Con 13%, UKIP 7%, Green 5%

Bradford East: Lab 45%, LD 23%, UKIP 15%, Con 12%, Green 2%

Manchester Withington: Lab 56%, LD 22%, Green 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%

Norwich South: Lab 33%, Green 20%, Con 18%, UKIP 15%, LD 12%

/photo/1

In fairness to the LD's, if there were only 3 seats where I was to say don't even bother they would be Withington, Brent C and Norwich S so they are far less interesting to poll than, say, Cambridge.

[Richard Allen]

I can only assume that the purpose of this survey was to further lower Lib Dem moral. Ashcroft has polled 4 seats where Stevie Wonder can see the Lib Dems are likely to lose. Why not poll interesting seats like Birmingham Yardley, Cambridge, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, etc.

[Pete Whitehead]

Channel 4 news saw fit to make a song and dance about this poll yesterday with particular reference to Bradford East. Apparently the suggestion that Labour might gain Bradford East indicated that Miliband was on course for a majority. In fact the LD result there, in terms of their retention of vote share is surprisingly respectable

[Tony Otim]

Jul 2, 2014 7:58:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Channel 4 news saw fit to make a song and dance about this poll yesterday with particular reference to Bradford East. Apparently the suggestion that Labour might gain Bradford East indicated that Miliband was on course for a majority. In fact the LD result there, in terms of their retention of vote share is surprisingly respectable

Is it that surprising? Their vote there has held up much much better at local level than in Manchester, Norwich or Brent, so it's pretty much in line with what I'd expect.

For constituency polling those figures look surprisingly credible, although I suspect the Green figure in Withington and UKIP in Norwich might be slightly on the high side.

From a Green perspective those look OK - Pavilion too close to call, running second in Norwich South.

[Pete Whitehead]

Perhaps not that surprising no. Its certainly markedly better than any of the other seats polled but for reasons you state this is probably what you'd expect.

[The Bishop]

Jul 2, 2014 7:58:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Channel 4 news saw fit to make a song and dance about this poll yesterday with particular reference to Bradford East. Apparently the suggestion that Labour might gain Bradford East indicated that Miliband was on course for a majority. In fact the LD result there, in terms of their retention of vote share is surprisingly respectable

The same Ch4 news who majored on Ashcroft's obviously abberrant national poll 24 hours earlier, then

In this case, it is total ignorance of polling and psephology - something near-universal throughout the media - rather than any bias methinks.