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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 22:52:34 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11%  Yes. Probably. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 20, 2015 3:09:06 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2015 8:18:08 GMT
What horrible cartoons, I can hardly tell who anyone is. And why are they distorting the bar chart like that? It looks like everyone is on 20%.
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Post by keithn on Jan 20, 2015 8:42:33 GMT
Nigel looks very pleased in that graphic. Nick not so. Dave and Ed doing their best to look statesmanlike. It has been said that no single party would ever get 40% ever again. Now they are struggling to get 30%! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 20, 2015 11:20:11 GMT
Only if you actually believe Ashcroft's figures, of course.....
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 20, 2015 11:26:59 GMT
I think the danger is with these polls, that if the Greens do get 3-5% (which is definitely possible) in May it will be seen as a bad result, whereas 6 months ago it would have been seen as a fantastic result. It would represent tripling of vote share and a best ever result (assuming wee have at least one seat to go with it).
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 20, 2015 13:46:33 GMT
So are the Greens really on 3% or 11% Yes. Probably. Almost certainly not. I suspect they will get more than 3, but less than 11. 5-6? (Though that figure may be depressed depending on how many seats record 0%) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 20, 2015 14:00:46 GMT
I think the danger is with these polls, that if the Greens do get 3-5% (which is definitely possible) in May it will be seen as a bad result, whereas 6 months ago it would have been seen as a fantastic result. It would represent tripling of vote share and a best ever result (assuming wee have at least one seat to go with it). Voice of realism there, Tony. I'm sure most us remember the first exit poll in 2010 showing Lib Dems losses and being a bit surprised after Cleggmania. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 20, 2015 14:12:01 GMT
I think the danger is with these polls, that if the Greens do get 3-5% (which is definitely possible) in May it will be seen as a bad result, whereas 6 months ago it would have been seen as a fantastic result. It would represent tripling of vote share and a best ever result (assuming wee have at least one seat to go with it). This is similar to the worries I had before the European election - getting say 25% of the vote and coming a close second would have been a great result objectively but would have been painted as a failure beacuse of the hype. In the event I needn't have worried. I think you probably should because that vote range is most likely and I think there is very little chance that the Greens will win more than one seat (I'm thinking now Bristol West might be the best bet for a second seat but still a real longshot). Re-runs of Natalie Bennett earnestly laying out the demands that Green MPs are going to make for confidence and supply will look even more risible after May than they did on Newsnight last night |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 20, 2015 15:04:57 GMT
3%. Holding Pavilion. A good second in Norwich South and a challenging position in Bristol West with some strong results in other seats would exceed most people's expectations of us for most of this parliament and would still be a good result in my view. Anything more than that would be great.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 20, 2015 15:08:20 GMT
(Though that figure may be depressed depending on how many seats record 0%) I think it's looking increasingly like GPEW will exceed the 75% of seats target, maybe even get about 80%+. SGP will be below that, but hopefully above 50%. Northern Ireland I have no idea about. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2015 17:38:27 GMT
I think the danger is with these polls, that if the Greens do get 3-5% (which is definitely possible) in May it will be seen as a bad result, whereas 6 months ago it would have been seen as a fantastic result. It would represent tripling of vote share and a best ever result (assuming wee have at least one seat to go with it). The Greens really need to stand in every constituency to have any hope of matching their current poll ratings. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 26, 2015 16:05:39 GMT
Con 32% (+3)
Lab 32% (+4)
UKIP 15% (nc)
Green 9% (-2)
L Dem 6% (-3)
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 26, 2015 16:43:03 GMT
Con 32% (+3) Lab 32% (+4) UKIP 15% (nc) Green 9% (-2) L Dem 6% (-3) Amazing: an Ashcroft poll in line with most of the others. |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 2, 2015 16:09:31 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Feb 9, 2015 19:02:43 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Feb 16, 2015 16:02:19 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2015 16:05:13 GMT
First Labour lead this year from Ashcroft.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 23, 2015 16:03:13 GMT
Sudden swing to Labour in latest Ashcroft national poll:
LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 11%
GRN 8%
LDEM 7%
Mike Smithson has done his thing isolating the English part, and Labour has a six point lead there - which seems very questionable (an 8% swing since 2010 would be near a landslide).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 23, 2015 16:05:22 GMT
You gotta larf.....
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