Newark By-election

[Deleted]

Jun 6, 2014 10:26:26 GMT The Bishop said:

There is persistent, albeit anecdotal, evidence that Helmer actually created a significant *anti*-UKIP vote.

He was a terrible choice of candidate for the party, as the result confirms.

& weren't some of the UKIP supporters who turned up more of a hinderance than a help ? Being polite ... 

[Richard Allen]

Jun 6, 2014 9:15:13 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 6, 2014 8:30:12 GMT @robin said:

So, in what circumstances can UKIP win a byelection ??

With a better candidate;
in a Con/Lab marginal rather than a sfae Conservative seat;
in Lincolnshire or Essex or Kent or Norfolk instead of Nottinghamshire;
in somewhere where there are more recently-arrived migrant workers.

You missed out the most important point, they need a leadership that wants to win a by election and it should now be clear that this isn't the case. Even in the most opportune circumstances UKIP still fall short because they don't know how to run a proper campaign. If they wanted to win they would pay for an experienced campaign manager to totally revamp their by election operation but instead they leave people like the woeful Lisa Duffy running things. By elections aren't won just be getting hundreds of activists into a seat, they are won by professional campaigns that identify their likely supporters and make sure they turn out. UKIP's ground game is extremely enthusiastic but absolutely clueless and year after year after year their leadership have done nothing to deal with that problem.

[Richard Allen]

Jun 6, 2014 10:29:59 GMT @robin said:

Jun 6, 2014 10:26:26 GMT The Bishop said:

There is persistent, albeit anecdotal, evidence that Helmer actually created a significant *anti*-UKIP vote.

He was a terrible choice of candidate for the party, as the result confirms.

& weren't some of the UKIP supporters who turned up more of a hinderance than a help ? Being polite ... 

Yes, another example of where UKIP's leadership is too foolish to politely tell the nutters that their "contribution" is not required.

[Deleted]

Jun 6, 2014 10:33:43 GMT Richard Allen said:

Jun 6, 2014 10:29:59 GMT @robin said:

& weren't some of the UKIP supporters who turned up more of a hinderance than a help ? Being polite ... 

Yes, another example of where UKIP's leadership is too foolish to politely tell the nutters that their "contribution" is not required.

Some years ago an 'indie' candidate stood against me who was absolutely barking, & his leaflet was even worse. He was obviously having trouble distributing them, so when I saw him in the pub I offered (only half joking ....) to give him a hand 

[Deleted]

Reading the posts above it seems the lack of a Party Machine is a major problem for UKIP. Was slightly amused to hear UKIP supporters saying they do not parachute candidates, I assume Scotland is the exception that proves the rule.

[baloo]

Jun 6, 2014 9:34:51 GMT @ianrobo said:

Jun 6, 2014 5:18:07 GMT baloo said:

A very pleasing result. My only problem with it is that this will give the leadership more confidence in their policy of trying to control everything and everyone all of the time. In the long term it isn't a good strategy.

and you can not throw the kind of resources into every campaign as this one and this was the 44th safest Tory seat and yet they sent hundreds there.

Given the idiotic candidate UKIP picked then their result is good, now if they had picked say a Diane James like figure they could have won this I believe.

I knew all of those things ian. I don't quite see what you're trying to prove.

If you want to draw predictions from this for the GE, I would suggest that Labour need to worry about anti-government voters splitting between them and UKIP. We've already factored UKIP's gain from us into our estimations of the GE, I now wonder whether this sort of split will be replicated in other, more marginal seats allowing some Conservative and Lib Dem MPs to hold on. I also think that we might see some degree of tactical voting in order to stop UKIP winning. It seems likely that this would benefit incumbents of all parties. In addition to this, the Better Together campaign seems to have helped the Scots Tories to some degree. I'm not saying that all this is definite or that it will happen to a great degree, but it might raise the bar for what Labour need to achieve to be the largest party/win a majority and lower the bar for us.

Incidentally in a GE turnout will be higher and this will benefit us more than UKIP, so we won't need to flood the seat with activists. At the same time UKIP's "People's Army" will be focusing on wherever Farage decides to stand.

[The Bishop]

Good for you

It seems not all our punditocracy does, however - given some of the typical drivel they have been spouting......

[baloo]

Jun 6, 2014 11:23:55 GMT The Bishop said:

Good for you

It seems not all our punditocracy does, however - given some of the typical drivel they have been spouting......

I am not a pundit, anyway, ianrobbo moves in mysterious ways.

[Deleted]

Jun 6, 2014 11:19:04 GMT baloo said:

In addition to this, the Better Together campaign seems to have helped the Scots Tories to some degree.

Even if this is the case, which I'm far from convinced by, I'm still struggling to find any serious potential Conservative gains from Labour in Scotland next year.

[The Bishop]

There *is* a definite Tory uptick in Scotland, though - also confirmed in yesterday's byelection result there.

Maybe it doesn't have so much to do with BT, and more with Davidson making the party there seem more "Scottish" and (marginally) less toxic?

[baloo]

Jun 6, 2014 11:36:51 GMT @benjamin said:

Jun 6, 2014 11:19:04 GMT baloo said:

In addition to this, the Better Together campaign seems to have helped the Scots Tories to some degree.

Even if this is the case, which I'm far from convinced by, I'm still struggling to find any serious potential Conservative gains from Labour in Scotland next year.

I didn't mention Labour, clearly our best prospects are against the Lib Dems. Gains from the SNP are decidedly more unlikely but I would guess more likely than from Labour.

[baloo]

Jun 6, 2014 11:40:32 GMT The Bishop said:

There *is* a definite Tory uptick in Scotland, though - also confirmed in yesterday's byelection result there.

Maybe it doesn't have so much to do with BT, and more with Davidson making the party there seem more "Scottish" and (marginally) less toxic?

That could be it, combined with the new stance on devolution.

[Deleted]

It seems possible that some of the softer Tories who switched to the SNP in 2011 are starting to drift back. Not sure that many of them were ever more than short-term switchers though.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jun 6, 2014 10:26:26 GMT The Bishop said:

There is persistent, albeit anecdotal, evidence that Helmer actually created a significant *anti*-UKIP vote.

He was a terrible choice of candidate for the party, as the result confirms.

He'd definitely have been a terrible MP. I'm not sure the result proves he was a terrible candidate, though - enough people hate UKIP that any candidate they put up will mobilise opponents to turn out.

[The Bishop]

Only agree with that to some extent - Helmer definitely augmented the anti-UKIP tactical vote IMO.

[Devonian]

Jun 6, 2014 6:28:32 GMT swindonlad said:

May 31, 2014 17:45:06 GMT Devonian said:

Saw this on Mike Smithson's twitter

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb · 4h

UKIP using LibDem style bar chart to win over the anti-CON vote in Newark





It doesn't quite say "Labour cannot win here vote UKIP" but that is the implication. My guess is that we'll see quite a few of this type of bar chart leaflets from UKIP in their target seats next year.

Looks like this was a benefit to the Conservatives, it managed to say to voters if you don't like UKIP you need to vote Conservative. As has been mentioned here people where coming across voters who said they would vote Conservative for the first time to stop UKIP

I find it odd that people would think that UKIP were to the right of the Conservatives. I've noticed recently UKIP positioning themselves to the left of the Conservatives on a number of issues. The Conservative candidate has said that his hero was Prince Rupert of the Rhine, which is literally as far right as you can go.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 6, 2014 11:55:28 GMT @benjamin said:

It seems possible that some of the softer Tories who switched to the SNP in 2011 are starting to drift back. Not sure that many of them were ever more than short-term switchers though.

There are a lot of people (mainly writing for the Guardian) who either forget or refuse to believe that there is a sizeable right-wing constituency in Scotland, as there is in pretty much every democratic nation.  That this right-wing constituency is probably of a wetter bent than that in England (I hope our resident Scottish Tories can confirm or deny this) seems to never enter their calculations.  This is possibly down to wishful thinking and a wish for some kind of Grauny paradise where nobody will laugh at their worries about making one's own pesto.

[Andrew_S]

Jun 6, 2014 8:30:12 GMT @robin said:

So, in what circumstances can UKIP win a byelection ??

Most of the seats on the east coast between Hull and Thanet would give UKIP a good chance of winning IMO in a by-election.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I should probably point out that this is the article to which I refer:

www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2012/nov/16/homemade-v-shop-bought-food

[Sibboleth]

I always love it when the Grauniad out-Grauniads itself.