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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 14, 2022 12:17:37 GMT
The swing needed for Labour to gain Westminster on the old boundaries was 6.5%.
On the basis of the notional figures for the new ward boundaries the swing needed is 5%.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 14, 2022 12:34:54 GMT
Is that a poll for Westminster VI or local VI?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 14, 2022 12:36:48 GMT
The fact the Greens are apparently considerably down despite their national polling being much better does show that you can’t directly predict local election results from general election polling (and even asking local election specific polling isn’t perfect as people still often give their national voting intention, this was an issue for May 2017 Scottish polling).
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 14, 2022 17:16:55 GMT
Is that a poll for Westminster VI or local VI? Local VI by the looks of it.
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 14, 2022 22:03:21 GMT
New poll from Deltapoll Write-up for OnLondon here. Doesn't appear to be any details of sample size etc on the link. The figures for Greens and Lib Dems look out of kilter with national polling.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 14, 2022 23:27:52 GMT
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 15, 2022 19:45:09 GMT
Looking at those crosstabs, there's a low proportion of former-Labour voters who say they're undecided as to how they'll vote compared to the other parties. If you give all undecided voters back to the party they voted for in 2018, along with proportionally allocating those who can't remember how they voted in 2018 and didn't vote in 2018 to the current VI shares among each group, you get: Lab 51 (-3), Con 25 (+1), LDm 10 (+1), Grn 5 (nc), Oth 9 (nc). Of course, that assumes public opinion among those without a VI in the 'forgot' and 'didn't vote' groups matches those with a VI. However, it suggests the Labour are more likely to fall the closer we get to the election than rise - assuming there's no major event before May. Additionally, the recalled vote - which has plenty of problems anyway - overweights 2018 Labour voters and underweights 2018 Lib Dem, Green and Other voters. When excluding those who can't remember their 2018 vote or who didn't vote, Labour are overweighted by 8%, the Lib Dems are underweighted by 3%, the Greens by 4% and Others by 1%. Doing some crude adjustments, the true headline figures should end up (roughly) as: Lab 48 (+4 on 2018), Con 24 (-5), LDm 10 (-3), Grn 8 (-1), Oth 10 (+4). Which looks much more realistic when compared to the national polls.
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Post by redtony on Mar 16, 2022 21:07:57 GMT
You forgetthe swing is only relevant in marginal wards Labour does not campaign much in its safe wards in borough elections in tory safe wards it only puts up paper candidates but in the marginals particivularly those held by the opposition it puts all its resources into getting its vote tothe polling station
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Post by mattbewilson on May 3, 2022 9:37:04 GMT
Interesting change in the wind. Labour were predicted by Pollcat to get 30+. I think this would be a decent result though. Hold our own in London would be good
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YL
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Post by YL on May 3, 2022 9:43:45 GMT
Interesting change in the wind. Labour were predicted by Pollcat to get 30+. I think this would be a decent result though. Hold our own in London would be good The changes are compared with the previous prediction, not the current numbers. I think the consensus on here is that no-one knows their methodology and that they're not really worth taking seriously, anyway.
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Post by finsobruce on May 3, 2022 9:46:54 GMT
Interesting change in the wind. Labour were predicted by Pollcat to get 30+. I think this would be a decent result though. Hold our own in London would be good The changes are compared with the previous prediction, not the current numbers. I think the consensus on here is that no-one knows their methodology and that they're not really worth taking seriously, anyway. They appear to be making it up as they go along.
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Post by jmagosh on May 3, 2022 11:22:53 GMT
They have actually published their methodology (see right at the bottom of this page), they're upfront about it not reflecting local factors very well - which is not especially helpful for a *local* election, but that just highlights why most projections of Local Election results are quite inaccurate. I think the methodology relies too heavily on the distribution of the 2021 London Asssembly vote, and that's a key issue. As well as demographic change, this is probably a key reason why the model gives (for example) such clear majorities for Labour in Wandsworth and Westminster - while the swing was about 1.2 points to Con across London in 2021, it was 3.8 points towards Labour in Westminster and 5 points in Wandsworth. So those boroughs are clearly trending red - as general elections have shown too. But the question is whether the trends observed at general elections and GLA elections are reflected in Local Election results. My guess is that they will to some degree, but probably not nearly to the extent that Pollcat are suggesting (especially because these are the flagship 'low council tax' boroughs) - I'm not expecting Labour will gain Westminster. But if they do, the signs were there.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 3, 2022 11:47:39 GMT
If you are who I presume you are, do you want colouring in red sir?
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 9, 2022 2:37:16 GMT
Survation/38 Degrees MRP* (Excel Spreadsheet):Lab 59% (+10 on 2019) Con 22% (-10) LDm 13% (-2) Oth 6% (+1) Seats: Lab 72 (+23), LDm 1 (-2), Con 0 (-21), Oth 0. The Lib Dems are down heavily in their strongest areas - double figure vote share drops in: Carshalton and Wallington; Cities of London and Westminster; Finchley and Golders Green; Kingston and Surbiton; Richmond Park; Sutton and Cheam; and Twickenham. Most of these seats are where Labour's vote share has increased the most. There are 30% swings from the Conservatives to Labour in Hornchurch and Upminster; Sutton and Cheam; and Bexleyheath and Crayford. The Conservatives are gaining in a number of seats they were weak in 2019 and falling off a cliff in places they were strong. As with most MRP analyses, I wouldn't read too much into the seat estimates as they can be comical. *I assume it's MRP.
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 9, 2022 7:20:15 GMT
If the Conservatives want to win London, I suggest they do two things:
1) Run on an aggressively pro-TfL automation ticket, in the name of cost-cutting. The long-awaited Bakerloo line update could be the guinea pig. 2) Run on cutting the costs of the London government, slashing the GLA tax taken from Londoners
OPTIONAL: Pledge to introduce birds that will reduce the pigeon population, like goshawks...
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Post by aargauer on Oct 9, 2022 7:49:02 GMT
If the Conservatives want to win London, I suggest they do two things: 1) Run on an aggressively pro-TfL automation ticket, in the name of cost-cutting. The long-awaited Bakerloo line update could be the guinea pig. 2) Run on cutting the costs of the London government, slashing the GLA tax taken from Londoners OPTIONAL: Pledge to introduce birds that will reduce the pigeon population, like goshawks... Do owls eat pidgeons?
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 9, 2022 8:59:52 GMT
If the Conservatives want to win London, I suggest they do two things: 1) Run on an aggressively pro-TfL automation ticket, in the name of cost-cutting. The long-awaited Bakerloo line update could be the guinea pig. 2) Run on cutting the costs of the London government, slashing the GLA tax taken from Londoners OPTIONAL: Pledge to introduce birds that will reduce the pigeon population, like goshawks... 1. That would involve spending a lot of money, which given the squeeze they've just put on Tfl would be er, slightly contradictory 2. They already do that.
The truth is that they're really aren't that many more seats that would likely fall to Labour now, however high the swing goes, so I don't imagine the Tories are stressing about this too much. I would suspect the strategy is more to slag off 'that London' to the benefit of the vote in the rest of the country.
With you on the pigeons.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Oct 9, 2022 10:07:29 GMT
If Labour win Richmond Park at the next election then the end of the world will truly be upon us.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 9, 2022 11:16:05 GMT
Labour are currently miles ahead, people aren't thinking tactically, and MRP is very much a generalisation that dampens local factors. Come a general election Labour will not be winning Richmond Park, but I do wonder how somewhere like Sutton and Cheam would be voting in the event of a Labour majority (probably not Labour, but previously freakish looking results did happen in 1997).
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 9, 2022 11:17:55 GMT
Survation/38 Degrees MRP* (Excel Spreadsheet):Lab 59% (+10 on 2019) Con 22% (-10) LDm 13% (-2) Oth 6% (+1) Seats: Lab 72 (+23), LDm 1 (-2), Con 0 (-21), Oth 0. The Lib Dems are down heavily in their strongest areas - double figure vote share drops in: Carshalton and Wallington; Cities of London and Westminster; Finchley and Golders Green; Kingston and Surbiton; Richmond Park; Sutton and Cheam; and Twickenham. Most of these seats are where Labour's vote share has increased the most. There are 30% swings from the Conservatives to Labour in Hornchurch and Upminster; Sutton and Cheam; and Bexleyheath and Crayford. The Conservatives are gaining in a number of seats they were weak in 2019 and falling off a cliff in places they were strong. As with most MRP analyses, I wouldn't read too much into the seat estimates as they can be comical. *I assume it's MRP. Map: www.yapms.com/app/?m=hwsu/
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