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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2021 21:09:53 GMT
The Lib Dems must have a decent chance of gaining the South West constituency based on this poll. They will retake second place at least but they have a large gap to close, and they are considerably weaker in Hounslow than they are in either Kingston or Richmond.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2021 21:13:17 GMT
There's obviously a segment of Tory voters who are going for Fox/Rose to send a message about lockdown And at a few Labour voters for that matter. But the "anti-lockdown vote" will be substantially split so it is very unlikely Laurence Fox, Brian Rose or Piers Corbyn will get their deposit returned.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Apr 7, 2021 23:04:44 GMT
There's obviously a segment of Tory voters who are going for Fox/Rose to send a message about lockdown And at a few Labour voters for that matter. But the "anti-lockdown vote" will be substantially split so it is very unlikely Laurence Fox, Brian Rose or Piers Corbyn will get their deposit returned. I think Fox has a decent chance of retaining his deposit. He's clearly the most high profile anti-lockdown candidate, so can see him squeezing some further votes from Rose and Bailey if he keeps himself prominent.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 8, 2021 6:57:36 GMT
Pretty embarassing for Bailey to be trailing behind the Con Assembly vote Not really, there are more candidates (and relatively high profile ones) for the mayoralty. He will probably get the bulk of Fox, Rose etc. supporters in the second round.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 13, 2021 14:03:09 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 13, 2021 14:05:35 GMT
That poll leaves only 3% for Brian Rose, Laurence Fox and all the others to split between them. I wonder if other pollsters are prompting for them and whether doing so makes a substantial difference to the polling results.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 13, 2021 14:09:14 GMT
It should be a very tight race to see who finishes 5th. hundred votes here or there...
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,773
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Post by johng on Apr 14, 2021 15:40:04 GMT
The Opinium poll full tables are here - www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/London-Mayor-Poll-7-10-April-2021-online-A.xlsxOf the minor candidates only Gammons (UKIP) and Reid (WEP) were mentioned which, of course, puts others like Fox at a disadvantage in the poll. However, others in total got 2%. Reid was, rather embarrassingly, on 0% despite being named. I imagine those others will get a little bit more than 2% when the results come in. It has the second round (which wouldn't happen because Khan is above 50%, but...) as Khan - 64% Bailey - 36% Khan gets roughly twice the transfers of Bailey. Khan is -2 and Baily +2 since their mid-March poll.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2021 16:14:20 GMT
YouGov via RedBox:-
Khan 46% Bailey 26% Green 9% LD 7% Fox 4% Rose 3% Rest 5%
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,773
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Post by johng on Apr 15, 2021 22:40:06 GMT
YouGov via RedBox:- Khan 46% Bailey 26% Green 9% LD 7% Fox 4% Rose 3% Rest 5% A bit different to Opinium, though Yougov are obviously prompting for Fox and Rose when Opinium only did so for Gammons and Reid (why the latter exactly!?) among the minor candidates.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 16, 2021 0:14:14 GMT
YouGov via RedBox:- Khan 46% Bailey 26% Green 9% LD 7% Fox 4% Rose 3% Rest 5% That's a somewhat confusing way to quote the results. Please can we either have candidate names for everyone or party names for all of the party candidates when citing poll results?
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 16, 2021 7:39:34 GMT
YouGov via RedBox:- Khan 46% Bailey 26% Green 9% LD 7% Fox 4% Rose 3% Rest 5% That's a somewhat confusing way to quote the results. Please can we either have candidate names for everyone or party names for all of the party candidates when citing poll results? Sadly I'd forgotten the names of those two candidates as I flicked between pages. I wouldn't know their names now unless I look them up. Fox and Rose are far less forgettable.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 16, 2021 8:07:53 GMT
That's a somewhat confusing way to quote the results. Please can we either have candidate names for everyone or party names for all of the party candidates when citing poll results? Sadly I'd forgotten the names of those two candidates as I flicked between pages. I wouldn't know their names now unless I look them up. Fox and Rose are far less forgettable. If you're forgetting candidate names, then you should probably go with the party labels except for independents.
And I find it odd that those two candidates in particular are "forgettable". Sian Berry is the Green Party's co-leader, and was the third-placed candidate last time. And Luisa Porritt has the memorable feature of not being related to Jonathan Porritt.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Apr 16, 2021 11:40:26 GMT
Sadly I'd forgotten the names of those two candidates as I flicked between pages. I wouldn't know their names now unless I look them up. Fox and Rose are far less forgettable. If you're forgetting candidate names, then you should probably go with the party labels except for independents.
And I find it odd that those two candidates in particular are "forgettable". Sian Berry is the Green Party's co-leader, and was the third-placed candidate last time. And Luisa Porritt has the memorable feature of not being related to Jonathan Porritt.
The suggestion that somehow being the Green “co-leader” makes you unforgettable is laughable.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,267
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2021 9:23:32 GMT
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Post by akmd on Apr 21, 2021 9:36:44 GMT
I think that’s the first poll to show Khan with a lead below 20%. I think they are also the first pollster to list all the candidates as options.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 21, 2021 9:37:49 GMT
I think that’s the first poll to show Khan with a lead below 20%. Did the poll list all the candidates standing? Yes
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Post by akmd on Apr 21, 2021 9:40:24 GMT
I think that’s the first poll to show Khan with a lead below 20%. Did the poll list all the candidates standing? Yes I’ve just updated my post to reflect that after checking the link. Despite Bailey apparently narrowing the gap, Khan is still set to win comfortably.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 21, 2021 9:52:14 GMT
I’ve just updated my post to reflect that after checking the link. Despite Bailey apparently narrowing the gap, Khan is still set to win comfortably. 2pp it’s 61% vs 39%
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Post by akmd on Apr 21, 2021 9:56:56 GMT
I’ve just updated my post to reflect that after checking the link. Despite Bailey apparently narrowing the gap, Khan is still set to win comfortably. 2pp it’s 61% vs 39% In 2016, Khan won by 57% to Goldsmith’s 43% after 2nd vote preferences were allocated. So he’s still set to win by a bigger margin than in 2016.
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