By-elections - 6th March 2014

[middleenglander]

Ashford, Wye - Ashford Independent gain from Conservative

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011	since 2007	since 2003
Ashford Independent	323	43.1%	+11.5%	-22.0%	from nowhere
Conservative	240	32.0%	-6.9%	+1.5%	-28.3%
UKIP	97	12.9%	+3.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	55	7.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-25.0%
Labour	22	2.9%	-8.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	13	1.7%	-7.1%	-2.7%	-5.6%
Total votes	750		-258	-155	-29

Swing Conservative to Ashford Independent 9.2% since 2011 but Ashford Independent to Conservative 11.7% since 2007

Bury, Ramsbottom - Conservative gain from Labour
- 2012 result slightly amended

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Conservative	1,398	47.0%	+8.8%	+0.1%	+4.4%	-15.2%
Labour	1,033	34.7%	-14.7%	-12.2%	+2.1%	+7.8%
UKIP	351	11.8%	+2.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	157	5.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	+1.2%	from nowhere
Lib Dem	38	1.3%	-1.9%	-4.9%	-19.4%	-9.7%
Total votes	2,977		-272	-909	-3,286	-259

Swing Labour to Conservative 12% since 2012, 6% since 2011, 1% since 2010 but Conservative to Labour 11½% since 2008

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Burnham - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011	since 2007	since 2003
Conservative	374	78.4%	+5.6%	0.0%	+6.2%
UKIP	103	21.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour			-27.2%
Lib Dem				-21.6%	-27.8%
Total votes	477		-287	-242	-493

Swing not meaningful

Nottingham, Clifton North - Labour hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Labour	1,179	41.2%	-9.7%	-8.1%	+5.4%	+5.7%
Conservative	1,025	35.8%	-13.3%	-15.0%	-17.4%	-18.0%
UKIP	536	18.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Elvis	67	2.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	56	2.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-9.0%	-8.8%
Total votes	2,863		-863	-665	-674	-439

Swing Conservative to Labour 2% / 3½% since 2011 but ~11½% since 2007

Wiltshire, Ethandune - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2013	since 2009
Conservative	480	35.6%	-25.1%	-26.1%
Lib Dem	372	27.6%	+3.0%	-1.1%
UKIP	236	17.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	192	14.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	69	5.1%	-9.6%	-4.5%
Total votes	1,349		+116	-279

Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 14% since 2013 and 12½% since 2009

[Merseymike]

Mar 7, 2014 6:53:02 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 0:21:49 GMT Merseymike said:

Ramsbottom has always been a very safe Tory ward until 2011, so this result isn't all that surprising on one level.

Well the boundary changes took away a huge sway of Tory votes to form North Manor leaving a large council estate in Ramsbottom itself, which meant with little effort Labour always had a large vote. Admittably lossing by one vote may have woken the Conservatives up from complacency in Ramsbottom and forced them to start canvassing. Labour also won Ramsbottom in 1996 to 98 so they have always had a good potential here.

Labour managed to take control of all sorts of council seats between 1996-98 - even my home district of true-blue High Wycombe saw a Lib-Lab coalition and we won seats we didn't usually stand in

It sounds as if we didn't exactly cover ourselves with glory here, but I don't think its the most obvious Labour ward (and nationally it undoubtedly votes Tory)

[marksenior]

Mar 7, 2014 10:12:41 GMT tim13 said:

Question for Mark Senior, I suppose - Does the positive Wiltshire result make up for the pathetic Lib Dem results elsewhere this week? For me, the answer, along with a small number of Lib Dem gains and holds in recent weeks, does show that given a favourable wind (reasonably active campaign, well known / respected candidate etc) that Lib Dems can buck the trend, but that the overwhelming likelihood is that areas will have lost their edge in activist numbers and quality.

I think that is a pretty accurate statement of the state of play .

[The Bishop]

Must admit that I always thought Bury a better Tory prospect this week than Nottingham (where Labour have had excellent results in byelections since 2011) and was a bit surprised that the prediction competition thought differently.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 7, 2014 11:04:09 GMT The Bishop said:

Must admit that I always thought Bury a better Tory prospect this week than Nottingham (where Labour have had excellent results in byelections since 2011) and was a bit surprised that the prediction competition thought differently.

I agree - I had the Tories closer in Bury. I just didn't think that they would get particularly close in either...

[Deleted]

Result of the day has to be the Lib Dems losing to Elvis. I think a bit of soul searching needs to be done before 2015 and a break from the coalition could be an option come early next year.

I have a feeling from all the by elections we have had and the press coverage they will get UKIP will be pushing Labour for 1st place in the euros. However even if they get near 30% of the vote that would be an success.

[Tony Otim]

I actually think this is possibly a slightly disappointing set of results for UKIP by recent standards. The Nottingham result is decent enough, but I suspect they may have been hoping for rather better in Kent, Wiltshire and Norfolk.

I also think it's entirely possible that nobody will get 30% in the Euros. UKIP have set themselves up where they really need to be well above 20% and at least 2nd, otherwise it's going to look like a poor result.

[marksenior]

One minor result from yesterday
Bradford On Avon TC North ward Conservative hold Con 566 Lib Dem 508 . Quite a good Conservative result as the Lib Dems won the UA seat easily in a 5 way contest .

[East Anglian Lefty]

That bit of the North Norfolk coast is a major second home hotspot. The underlying demographics are therefore rather less good for UKIP than you'd find in somewhere like the outskirts of King's Lynn.

[independentukip]

Mar 7, 2014 14:49:31 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

That bit of the North Norfolk coast is a major second home hotspot. The underlying demographics are therefore rather less good for UKIP than you'd find in somewhere like the outskirts of King's Lynn.

Indeed, property prices are off the scale there. Particularly so if compared with other broadly coastal areas UKIP have performed well in. I was surprised at the high predictions for UKIP - I would've thought around 25%.

[The Bishop]

Also the Tory was the son of the deceased councillor, whilst the UKIP candidate was from well outside the area.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mar 7, 2014 16:03:37 GMT The Bishop said:

Also the Tory was the son of the deceased councillor, whilst the UKIP candidate was from well outside the area.

Daughter - Sam short for Samantha.

[coitoergosum]

Mar 7, 2014 8:31:55 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 8:23:36 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Is there a bit missing from this sentence?

Sorry, the resigned councillor, issued a press release saying the sending goods to troops in Afghanistan was wrong and people should spend their money on people more deserving. As you can probably guess in a town like Bury it went down like a lead brick. As I said good riddance to her.

I think, as a Bury resident, you've managed to magic a mountain out of a molehill there, as that was not what she said, aided by that appalling Tory rag the Bury Times who seem to revel in posting factually inaccurate stories and who's reporters are nothing short of disgraceful in their eschewing of the basic tenets of journalism, a al C.P.Scott - "facts are sacred, comment is free".

I suggest you acquaint yourself with the facts before mouthing off on here, particularly given the less than stellar backgrounds of some of the UKIP candidates in 2012.

[coitoergosum]

Mar 7, 2014 11:30:32 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 11:07:58 GMT Tony Otim said:

I agree - I had the Tories closer in Bury. I just didn't think that they would get particularly close in either...

The retiring Cllr has only been in for two years insulted the armed forces in a town that wears it's links to the armed forces with pride, then resigned, even though I've been out of it recently I didn't think Labour stood a chance. It's alright insulting the monarchy when you represent east ward but that kind of thing doesn't play well in the suburbs. And Labour has had quite an even history of winning Ramsbottom even when the boundaries were better to the Conservatives.

This is a rather stupid comment, Stuart. You are misrepresenting the councillor in question, with whom I was acquainted. That she resigned was down to family circumstances and a recent problem with clinical depression. You will search long and hard in the Bury Times for that particular circumstance. I suggest you consider that when making comments of the sort that you and Peter Whitehead have.

A more cogent issue was the anaerobic digester plant proposal - NB, not 'promoted by the Council' as someone suggested, as Planning Departments simply follow NPPF and similar law and precedent, and these are (or should be) non-political, quasi-judicial decisions from the Department, and, as necessary, from local councillors sitting in committee. This was effectively hijacked by the local Tories to enable them to present themselves as the champions of the town, against the AD proposal - as yet unheard. The irony of the great loosening of Planning legislation and guidelines (see NPPF) being followed by  the proposal for said AD plant in greenbelt was clearly a nuance overlooked. Far easier to blame the Council, rather than the administrative Planning free-for-all unleashed on Planning Departments up and down the country by Eric Pickles.

Knowing Bury, Ramsbottom, the legal implications of changes since 2010 (NPPF) and other sundry issues, it simply boils my piss when I read uneducated, ill-advised and, above all, defamatory and extremely inaccurate comment being posted.

I assume that you must know Bury to a degree; you would do very well to execute far more stringent enquiries and research in future.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

So far as I can tell this is indeed a mountain out of a molehill. Here's the story as reported in the Bury Times: www.burytimes.co.uk/news/bury_news/10933788.Row_erupts_after_councillor_blasts_campaign_to_knit_hats_for_troops_in_Afghanistan/

So it's not a press release. It's not about "goods" in general but about self-knitted hats. It's not a criticism of the armed forces at all. And although the Wel Hats initiative (I hadn't previously heard of it) sounds charitable in the broad sense, it also sounds like it was an explicitly Conservative initiative, which makes it possible to justify a party political response.

EDIT: The founder of the initiative is Grant Shapps's agent: www.whtimes.co.uk/news/troops_thank_welwyn_hatfield_times_readers_for_knitting_2_000_hats_1_3006955

[AdminSTB]

I'm forced to agree with David and Coitoergosum, unless @stuart can find some evidence to match up his view?

[coitoergosum]

Mar 7, 2014 17:05:55 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 16:55:21 GMT coitoergosum said:

I think, as a Bury resident, you've managed to magic a mountain out of a molehill there, as that was not what she said, aided by that appalling Tory rag the Bury Times who seem to revel in posting factually inaccurate stories and who's reporters are nothing short of disgraceful in their eschewing of the basic tenets of journalism, a al C.P.Scott - "facts are sacred, comment is free".

I suggest you acquaint yourself with the facts before mouthing off on here, particularly given the less than stellar backgrounds of some of the UKIP candidates in 2012.

Just pointing out what was reported if she was misquoted or it was taken out of context I will gladly apologise. However, that is the first time I have heard the bury times referee to as Tory supporting since the 1980's it was full of trots when I was there, though there was a number of decent journalist of all persuasions.

Stuart, I can assure you that if BT was 'trot' at one point, there must have been a very effective purge in the 90's and beyond, as it is simply not left wing in any sense now. I have actually had one of their most senior reporters phone me up to attack me about comments I made to one of his junior colleagues regarding a factually inaccurate and inflammatory article that said reporter wrote last year. I did not complain lightly as was most surprised to be phoned and lambasted in such a manner, which persuaded me that (a) I had been right to challenge the factual content, which I knew to be inaccurate and (b) it reeked of unprofessionalism for a very senior editorial figure to make a personal attack on a correspondent.

Since that time, I have been simply unable treat the BT as anything other than something to wrap chippy teas in, and I certainly maintain an exceedingly low opinion of their journalistic integrity and honesty.

YMMV.

[coitoergosum]

Mar 7, 2014 17:14:02 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 17:08:45 GMT coitoergosum said:

This is a rather stupid comment, Stuart. You are misrepresenting the councillor in question, with whom I was acquainted. That she resigned was down to family circumstances and a recent problem with clinical depression. You will search long and hard in the Bury Times for that particular circumstance. I suggest you consider that when making comments of the sort that you and Peter Whitehead have.

A more cogent issue was the anaerobic digester plant proposal - NB, not 'promoted by the Council' as someone suggested, as Planning Departments simply follow NPPF and similar law and precedent, and these are (or should be) non-political, quasi-judicial decisions from the Department, and, as necessary, from local councillors sitting in committee. This was effectively hijacked by the local Tories to enable them to present themselves as the champions of the town, against the AD proposal - as yet unheard. The irony of the great loosening of Planning legislation and guidelines (see NPPF) being followed by  the proposal for said AD plant in greenbelt was clearly a nuance overlooked. Far easier to blame the Council, rather than the administrative Planning free-for-all unleashed on Planning Departments up and down the country by Eric Pickles.

Knowing Bury, Ramsbottom, the legal implications of changes since 2010 (NPPF) and other sundry issues, it simply boils my piss when I read uneducated, ill-advised and, above all, defamatory and extremely inaccurate comment being posted.

I assume that you must know Bury to a degree; you would do very well to execute far more stringent enquiries and research in future.

I do indeed know Bury well. Indeed the plant was stopped from being put up in Bradley Fold it raised quite the stink at the time, but if what I was told on her reason to resign was wrong I apologise and hope she makes a speedy recovery.

Stuart, that is a kind comment to make and you are to be commended for your openness on that point.

Bradley Fold would, though, have been turned down flat. As part of the Planning cognoscenti, I can state categorically that Tamar/Peel Holdings would have been told to get stuffed at the pre-Planning stage, given the proximity of Montgomery Park and other local estates.

[coitoergosum]

Mar 7, 2014 17:23:23 GMT @stuart said:

Mar 7, 2014 17:19:45 GMT coitoergosum said:

Stuart, I can assure you that if BT was 'trot' at one point, there must have been a very effective purge in the 90's and beyond, as it is simply not left wing in any sense now. I have actually had one of their most senior reporters phone me up to attack me about comments I made to one of his junior colleagues regarding a factually inaccurate and inflammatory article that said reporter wrote last year. I did not complain lightly as was most surprised to be phoned and lambasted in such a manner, which persuaded me that (a) I had been right to challenge the factual content, which I knew to be inaccurate and (b) it reeked of unprofessionalism for a very senior editorial figure to make a personal attack on a correspondent.

Since that time, I have been simply unable treat the BT as anything other than something to wrap chippy teas in, and I certainly maintain an exceedingly low opinion of their journalistic integrity and honesty.

YMMV.

Well our experiences seem to be different of the Bury times in that case. But you have my sympathies it must not be nice especially as your a layman.

It was, indeed, something of a shock, but given that the journalistic zeitgeist that it reflects is relevant to this by and the issues surrounding, I felt that I would share it. I wish I had neither need nor any opportunity to so do, but there you are.

From a psephological POV, it raises interesting issues concerning Bury North, as the 2014 locals encroach. I would be interested to read your views on the northern wards in particular, plus your general take upon the overall prospects for all parties in both north and south.

I should add that I am more than happy to acknowledge your above posts in which you have withdrawn previous comments. I thank you setting the record straight.

[Robert Waller]

Mar 7, 2014 15:29:43 GMT independentukip said:

Mar 7, 2014 14:49:31 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

That bit of the North Norfolk coast is a major second home hotspot. The underlying demographics are therefore rather less good for UKIP than you'd find in somewhere like the outskirts of King's Lynn.

Indeed, property prices are off the scale there. Particularly so if compared with other broadly coastal areas UKIP have performed well in. I was surprised at the high predictions for UKIP - I would've thought around 25%.

Except that there was no other competition to the Tories in Burnham. Some people would just vote for any alternative. In a two horse race, 21.6% is rather poor, which is why I predicted higher.
As for Bury-Ramsbottom, it sounds like local considerations prevailed. Partisans always clutch at straws, as they do with individual opinion polls. Neither local byelections nor polls say much about the next General Election over a year before that contest.
We already knew that the LDs do appallingly unless they are competitive in a ward, when they do pretty well. In a general election, they might replicate this sort of pattern and hold the great majority of their seats; or the national contest may stretch their resources more than byelections do, though I feel that local campaigning is overestimated in general.
If UKIP were to get anything like 30% nationally in the Euros, they probably would come first, as quite a bit of that would come from Labour. Anything over 20% would be excellent for them.