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Post by Ben Walker on Mar 7, 2014 0:21:42 GMT
Any idea about Burnham (King's Lynn) and Ethandune (Wiltshire)?
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 7, 2014 0:21:49 GMT
Ramsbottom has always been a very safe Tory ward until 2011, so this result isn't all that surprising on one level.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 7, 2014 0:43:56 GMT
I'd imagine a significant contributory factor would be kickback against the Labour council's plans to site an aneurobic digestion plant in the Ward. Add to that a Conservative candidate with decent name recognition from the "tied" election and some chaos in the Labour selection. Don't forget the high number of postal votes - oh that's only supposed to benefit Labour . Only if there's underlying Labour support, which the Ward has little history of, and a strong Labour organisation, which the messed-up candidate selection suggests wasn't present. On a significantly higher turnout this seems very much like Stoke-on-Trent's recent Baddeley, Milton and Norton by-election which also had a high postal vote; significant Conservative strength, dysfunctional local Party, unpopular local issue harming the Labour-run Council. The only major difference was the presence of a strong Ward-based Independent shading the Tories. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 7, 2014 0:59:51 GMT
Conservatives hold Ethandune.
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Post by Philip Davies on Mar 7, 2014 1:13:25 GMT
So with have had by-elections in the birthplaces of both Nelson and Peel.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 3:56:07 GMT
What an utterly shit set of by election results for us. Now I have sympathy for Labour in the Brown era.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 7, 2014 7:36:37 GMT
Fecking poor UKIP result in Ashford.
Didn't even know it was happening!
We'd better do markedly better in the wards I'm helping in...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 8:07:26 GMT
Ramsbottom has always been a very safe Tory ward until 2011, so this result isn't all that surprising on one level. Well the boundary changes took away a huge sway of Tory votes to form North Manor leaving a large council estate in Ramsbottom itself, which meant with little effort Labour always had a large vote. Admittably lossing by one vote may have woken the Conservatives up from complacency in Ramsbottom and forced them to start canvassing. Labour also won Ramsbottom in 1996 to 98 so they have always had a good potential here. Hmm, a large potential vote is great ..... if you can get it out .... & we were winning virtually everything in 96-98, so that isn't really a guide ! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 7, 2014 8:22:33 GMT
To be precise, Labour won Ramsbottom in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Conservatives won in 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992 and from 1998 onwards. So this is hardly in the category of a ward that Labour could only win in the extreme period of the mid-90s (plus as Stuart has pointed out the boundaries were less favourable to Labour then than they have been since 2004)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 7, 2014 8:23:36 GMT
Tories gained Ramsbottom. With a few hundred vote majority... Hmm. What happened there? Well didn't help the ex labour councillor being typical manciunian Labour and calling the armed forces. From what I hear, it was too much for even Bury Labour leadership Good riddance! Is there a bit missing from this sentence? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 8:31:44 GMT
What an utterly shit set of by election results for us. Now I have sympathy for Labour in the Brown era. I am pretty amused that it is in the best result of the 3 for the lib dems that you got beaten by Elvis loves pets. |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 7, 2014 8:50:11 GMT
Wiltshire Ethandune result Con hold
Con 480 Lib Dem 372 UKIP 236 Ind 192 Lab 69
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Post by brianj on Mar 7, 2014 9:00:42 GMT
So Ethandune is Con 35.6% (-25.1), LibDem 27.6% (+3.0), UKIP 17.5% (+17.5), Ind 14.2% (+14.2), Lab 5.1% (-9.7).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 7, 2014 9:56:20 GMT
To be precise, Labour won Ramsbottom in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Conservatives won in 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992 and from 1998 onwards. So this is hardly in the category of a ward that Labour could only win in the extreme period of the mid-90s (plus as Stuart has pointed out the boundaries were less favourable to Labour then than they have been since 2004) Who won in 1991 - LibDems?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 7, 2014 10:00:44 GMT
Conservative in 1991
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nick10
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Post by nick10 on Mar 7, 2014 10:02:15 GMT
Burnham, Kings Lynn & West Norfolk
Sam Sandell (Cons) - 374 votes
Jean Smith (UKIP) - 103 votes
Turnout 34.31%
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Mar 7, 2014 10:05:56 GMT
A quick calculation gives me 78.4-21.6 for Burnham.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 7, 2014 10:06:03 GMT
To be precise, Labour won Ramsbottom in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Conservatives won in 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992 and from 1998 onwards. So this is hardly in the category of a ward that Labour could only win in the extreme period of the mid-90s (plus as Stuart has pointed out the boundaries were less favourable to Labour then than they have been since 2004) I don't know the town, but ordinarily I'd think that results from the 1980s aren't too relevant - too much water under the bridge since then. It's clearly a marginal, but equally clearly a Conservative-inclined one. I'd say it counts as a disappointing result, but not a shocking one. |
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Mar 7, 2014 10:12:41 GMT
Question for Mark Senior, I suppose - Does the positive Wiltshire result make up for the pathetic Lib Dem results elsewhere this week? For me, the answer, along with a small number of Lib Dem gains and holds in recent weeks, does show that given a favourable wind (reasonably active campaign, well known / respected candidate etc) that Lib Dems can buck the trend, but that the overwhelming likelihood is that areas will have lost their edge in activist numbers and quality.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 7, 2014 10:20:38 GMT
To be precise, Labour won Ramsbottom in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995 and 1996. Conservatives won in 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992 and from 1998 onwards. So this is hardly in the category of a ward that Labour could only win in the extreme period of the mid-90s (plus as Stuart has pointed out the boundaries were less favourable to Labour then than they have been since 2004) I don't know the town, but ordinarily I'd think that results from the 1980s aren't too relevant - too much water under the bridge since then. It's clearly a marginal, but equally clearly a Conservative-inclined one. I'd say it counts as a disappointing result, but not a shocking one. My vague impression is that the town has been trending Tory over that period and probably much longer - a classic case of an old textile town becoming commuterised, similar to some areas in the Colne and Calder valleys. On my notional figures the Tories were only 10% ahead in 1983 which made it Labour in an even year but then the Tories were 6% in 2005 (I don't use 2010 because boundary changes render comparisons unreliable). I would agree that certainly it is a basically Tory ward now and that it is the 2012 result in particular which looks most aberrent |
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