The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2014 11:10:23 GMT
possibly not with 35%? There is no way they will get anywhere near 35%. 30% would be a good result for them and I'd expect them to be somwehere between 25 and 30% which would be enough to 'win' I think that 30% is gettable. 35%, well, not so much  |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 19, 2014 13:30:21 GMT
possibly not with 35%? There is no way they will get anywhere near 35%. 30% would be a good result for them and I'd expect them to be somwehere between 25 and 30% which would be enough to 'win' I think that 30% is gettable. 35%, well, not so much Cos you know how to do managing expectations  I have seen some UKIPpers declaring if we get 50% then we can declare the referendum won... others have been talking about getting less than 60 MEPs as defeatism... I have to wear handcuffs when browsing our pages now to prevent my hair being pulled out... |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Feb 19, 2014 17:07:53 GMT
I think we could declare the next general election won, if we won 60 MEPs. I'll be delighted with 20.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 19, 2014 17:39:08 GMT
I think that 30% is gettable. 35%, well, not so much Cos you know how to do managing expectations I have seen some UKIPpers declaring if we get 50% then we can declare the referendum won... others have been talking about getting less than 60 MEPs as defeatism... I have to wear handcuffs when browsing our pages now to prevent my hair being pulled out... I think for managing expectations purposes I'd go for 25%. We only got 28% in 1999. Whilst we were supremely terrible at getting our supporters to turn out in the early Blair years, we were still riding much higher in the polls and hostility to the EU was much less of a political issue. That's not to say 1999 was our ceiling, of course, but it is to say that there may be systemic reasons to expect us to underperform in European elections. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 19, 2014 23:18:30 GMT
Cos you know how to do managing expectations I have seen some UKIPpers declaring if we get 50% then we can declare the referendum won... others have been talking about getting less than 60 MEPs as defeatism... I have to wear handcuffs when browsing our pages now to prevent my hair being pulled out... I think for managing expectations purposes I'd go for 25%. We only got 28% in 1999. Whilst we were supremely terrible at getting our supporters to turn out in the early Blair years, we were still riding much higher in the polls and hostility to the EU was much less of a political issue. That's not to say 1999 was our ceiling, of course, but it is to say that there may be systemic reasons to expect us to underperform in European elections. In 1999 the Euros would have coincided with mostly rural local district elections. This year it's London, the Mets, and the big unitaries, so that should boost Labour turnout. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2014 23:33:57 GMT
Actually, in 1999 they didn't coincide with any local elections at all - the last time this has happened to date.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 20, 2014 0:05:12 GMT
Actually, in 1999 they didn't coincide with any local elections at all - the last time this has happened to date. Didn't realise that, being Scotland-based. I am reminded of 1992 when I was standing at a polling station at the Scottish local elections in May 1992, just a month after the general election. There were constant complaints from voters about being dragged to the polls so soon again, and of course they were blaming the council. |
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